The statement made Vladimir Putin smile... much less the Poles. During a meeting with the Russian president on Sunday 24 July, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said that Wagner's militiamen, who have taken refuge in his country since the mutiny of their leader Prigozhin, "ask to go to the West (...) in Warsaw, Rzeszów'. A thinly veiled threat of invasion of Poland, which adds to a multitude of warning signals for this country bordering Belarus.
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On Thursday, July 20, Minsk announced that Wagner's fighters were training with Belarusian special forces in the Bretsky camp, less than five kilometers from the Polish border. As soon as the paramilitary group's exile in Belarus was announced, Poland sensed the threat. President Andrzej Duda had characterized their presence as a "potential threat to Poland" and decided to transfer more than a thousand soldiers and dozens of tanks from the West to the Belarusian border.
An unthinkable invasion
Warsaw is obviously right to be wary of Wagner's presence a stone's throw from its border. The paramilitary group has already demonstrated its destabilizing skills in Africa, and has gained combat experience in Ukraine. But the likelihood of a large-scale attack on Poland by militiamen associated with the Belarusian army seems, for the moment, perfectly extravagant. Simply because they can't afford it. In addition to the structural weakness of the Minsk army, Wagner has only 3500 militiamen on Belarusian soil, according to the latest information available.
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In addition, recent satellite images, provided by Maxar and Planet, from the mercenaries' base camp, located in Tsel in the center of the country, demonstrate that "Wagner does not have the heavy weapons necessary to mount a serious offensive (...) without significant rearmament," the Institute for the Study of War said in its July 23 bulletin. According to the think tank, the militia has only hundreds of cars and vans and about 25 semi-trailers. All its armored vehicles had to be handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defense after the mutiny.
Satellite images of the Wagner camp in Tsel. PLANET LABS PBC/REUTERS
Opposite, Poland is a NATO country protected by Article 5, has one of the largest armies in Europe and hosts an American military base. "Lukashenko's gesticulations are always to be taken with a certain reserve," tempers Jacques Rupnik, a specialist in Central and Eastern European countries, director of research emeritus at Sciences Po. He tries at the same time, by warmongering remarks, to show that he and Wagner can cohabit and to settle into a kind of verbal escalation that pleases Putin."
Possible attempts at destabilization
On the other hand, it is not foolish to imagine that Wagner could act more subtly to destabilize Poland and the countries bordering Belarus. Their very presence in this country induces a form of pressure, both on northern Ukraine and on Poland. Volodymyr Zelensky, like Warsaw, was also forced to move some troops close to the Belarusian border, when they could have been useful during the current counter-offensive. "By putting pressure, everyone mobilizes their forces, it creates a security dilemma and everyone feeds the machine," says Céline Bayou, lecturer at Inalco and associate researcher at the Europe-Eurasia Research Center.
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This pressure in itself is enough to pose a very real threat. In Belarus, "Wagner creates a kind of permanent doubt," adds the specialist. The proximity of the very strategic Suwalki corridor, this strip of land often considered NATO's weak point, which connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus along the border of Poland and Lithuania, contributes to this deleterious climate. The still unclear role of Wagner on the spot also contributes to this.
If no direct confrontation is possible for the time being, the mercenary group could carry out destabilizing operations. "Because they know how to do it, we see it in Africa, and break the rules. It's in the DNA of private military companies, says Céline Bayou. They may participate in the organization of various provocations with the idea of triggering an incident or an overreaction." In 2021, Belarus had already tried to destabilize Poland and the European Union by using the weapon of migration. The West then accused Minsk, which has always defended itself, of artificially creating a crisis by bringing would-be immigrants, bringing them to the border with the promise of easy passage to the EU. In such indirect operations, Wagner has already demonstrated its effectiveness.
A calibrated Polish reaction
In this particular context, "it makes sense to move troops," says Jacques Rupnik. Especially for Poland. With the war in Ukraine, the country "feels more vulnerable, closer to the conflict, so it reacts to every development." Especially since Poland will soon enter an electoral period, since parliamentary elections that promise to be tight will be held in the autumn. It is therefore essential, for President Duda, to "make the sacred union in the face of the threat".
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Poland has every interest in strongly denouncing the threat at its borders, so that it is taken seriously by its allies, "abounds Céline Bayou. And the country does not skimp on resources. In addition to the many military contracts signed since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak indicated on 23rd July last that a battalion would soon be formed in Augustow, a Polish town located a few kilometres from the Belarusian border, and that others would follow. "We care about the safety of the eastern flank!" he said.
In response to these initiatives, Russia is playing its usual part. After the reinforcement of Polish troops on the Belarusian border, the Kremlin immediately denounced "aggressiveness towards Belarus and Russia". On a visit to St Petersburg, Aleksander Lukashenko even accused the Central European country of wanting to "transfer territories" from western Ukraine to Poland. A total inversion of reality, dear to the Russian narrative.