For a good few years now, Hollywood has been waiting patiently for a weekend like the last to hit it. Both "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," two big-budget films with stars and intelligence, that hit screens on the same day, drove movie lovers in the U.S. and around the world crazy, exceeded all expectations, and caused theaters to fill up at a pace and quantity not seen since pre-COVID-19 days.
All in all, the U.S. recorded the fourth-largest box office weekend in history. Barbie, written and directed by Greta Gerwig, grossed $162 million, an all-time record opening for a female director's film. "Oppenheimer," a film by popular director Christopher Nolan about the "father of the atomic bomb," J. Robert Oppenheimer, grossed no less than $82 million, an unprecedented sum for a three-hour biographical drama that deals with weighty subjects and is not intended for children. The last time we saw a box office event of similar magnitude in the US was back in 2019, with the release of Avengers: Endgame.
Box office bonanzas in a turbulent period. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer",
Gerwig and Nolan's huge and surprising box office bonanza comes in the midst of a particularly tough and deadly summer for the studios, providing little oxygen and encouragement to the industry as a whole. Due to the inflated budgets of today's blockbusters – most of which boast a price tag of between $200 million and $300 million (not including distribution and marketing costs) – almost all of the major films released in recent months have not brought in enough money to become profitable. The list also includes films that were supposed to be "sure hits," such as "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," and sequels to hit series like "Fast & Furious 10" and "Mission Impossible 7."
Even the superhero genre, which has pretty much held the entire industry on its shoulders in recent years, has recorded a series of searing failures with Ant-Man 3, Shazam 2 and The Flash.
But despite the impressive and hopeful success stories of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" – which prove that the general public will still come to the cinema in droves if given a good reason to do so – no one in Hollywood opens bottles of champagne, and no one forgets for a moment that for a good few months the world-famous movie city has been in chaos that almost completely disrupts its operations.
"A moment of truth"
In May, 11,500 members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike and suspended dozens of film and television productions, while two weeks ago the actors' union, SAG-AFTRA, which has nearly 160,1960 members, decided to join the celebration as well. This is a very dramatic move, especially when you consider that the last time the two unions went on strike together was in <>, when the president of the players' union was Ronald Reagan, later president of the United States.
Not surprisingly, when asked to describe the mood in Hollywood this week, Michael Moses, a senior executive at Universal Studios who was one of the people responsible for marketing and distributing Oppenheimer, chose to quote the opening of Charles Dickens's famous book, Between Two Cities, and say that "these are the best of times, these are the worst of times." "The celebrations are subdued," he added, "because we are still concerned that we will not have a healthy business left on the other side of the strike."
The reasons for the strike that has paralyzed Hollywood in recent months are many and varied, but as was the case in previous strikes, this time too there are two issues at its center that are directly related to the technological changes that are changing the face of the industry, in this case the streaming platforms (Netflix, Disney Plus, Apple TV, etc.) and artificial intelligence (AI).
The overall logical demand of creators and actors is that studios adapt the rules of the game to the changing and emerging reality, whether through regulation of royalty payments (in the case of streaming) or through regulation (in the case of artificial intelligence).
"These are the best of times, these are the worst of times," Michael Moses, a Universal executive and one of those responsible for distributing Oppenheimer, quoted Charles Dickens. "The celebrations are subdued because we are still concerned that we will not have a healthy business left on the other side of the strike."
So far, studios and streaming platforms are mostly considerate of shareholders, entrenched in their positions and insist that the demands directed at them are not economically realistic. But it is not certain that they will be able to continue to make such claims for long.
"The business model in Hollywood has completely changed," said Actors Guild President Fran Drescher (remembered for her role in the popular sitcom Nanny, which was a TV hit in the '90s). "We have reached a historic moment, a moment of truth. At some point, you have to say, 'No. That's it. We're not ready to continue like this.' The studios claim to be losing money, but at the same time they are paying hundreds of millions of dollars to their CEOs. It's repulsive. Eventually, the people will break through the gates of the Palace of Versailles."
"Historic moment". Fran Drescher at an actors' union demonstration, photo: AFP
In any case, until Drescher's romantic promises are fulfilled (if at all), almost all Hollywood activity is on hold. Anticipated films like "Deadpool 3," "Gladiator 2" and "Beetlejuice 2" have entered an indefinite freeze (costing studios millions), work on new projects has been almost completely halted, and since the actors' strike also prevents them from promoting their films, many fall films may be postponed until next year, creating a huge hole in the exit boards of studios (and theaters).
For example, last week it was decided to postpone the release of "Challengers," a romantic sports drama starring Zendaya ("Spider-Man: No Way Home"), which was supposed to be the opening film of the Venice Film Festival. Similar rumors are circulating about the fate of Warner Studios' Dune 2, and Disney is seriously considering moving its remaining potential blockbusters in 2023 to 2024.
In short, there is no way the recovery trend heralded by the success of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" will continue. Simply because there are currently no other films on the horizon that can continue the momentum and perform similarly.
Freezing sequels costs studios millions. "Gladiator" and "Deadpool",
"Fear for the Oscars"
"Right now there's nothing happening in Hollywood," says Israeli writer-director Aaron Kechels, who is a member of the Writers Guild of America and whose latest film, the romantic thriller "South of Paradise," was an American production starring Jason Sudakis ("Ted Lasso") and Evangeline Lilly ("Ant-Man and the Wasp").
"The industry is dead. No insurance company will give permission for productions that need to get underway, because no one has any idea when it will happen and in what form. Actors and directors don't read new scripts. You can't go out for photos. Despite the happy events of last weekend, when I talk to producers and agents, there is an atmosphere of cripples. Cinema is still trying to recover from COVID-19, and something good is finally starting to happen, and then the strike crushes everyone's motivation and mood.
"The question now is who will blink first," he adds. "The studios have prepared, and they have a lot of material that they prepared in advance and that will last them for a long time. But even the screenwriters knew they were headed for a serious campaign. Big movies that were supposed to be released this year have already begun to be moved to next year, and it remains to be seen if Warner will actually move Dune 2. They may be playing a game of 'hold me' to signal to the strikers that they are serious about their intentions and that they are not afraid to 'go all the way', even if they have to pay a price. In any case, autumn festivals - like Venice and Toronto - are definitely going to suffer from this, and you will know how many more premieres will be cancelled or postponed because the stars will not be able to attend them.
"From what I hear from the people I talk to, what scares the studios the most is that Oscars season will screw up for them. Usually, leading up to the Oscars, everyone finds their way to the negotiating table and tries to end the conflict. To date, there has never been an Academy Awards ceremony that has been cancelled because of a writers' or actors' strike."
"Disabled atmosphere". Aaron Kechels, Photo: AFP
Kesheles, who is also a signatory to the Israeli horror film "Who's Afraid of the Bad Wolf" (which he wrote and directed with Navot Papuchado), has personal experience when it comes to receiving royalties for his films. According to him, "South of Paradise" actually brought him a pretty good sum at all. "But not because of Netflix," he stresses, "but because of VOD platforms and AMC's platform. There matters are settled in a fairer and more logical manner. Netflix, systematically, does not give money.
"Many streaming platforms have entered our lives in recent years – Netflix, Disney Plus, Amazon, HBO Max and more – and the terms with them have never been updated and regulated. This is one of the main goals of the strike. Get them to update the conditions."
Director Aaron Kechels: "The scary thing about the studios the most is that Oscars season will screw up for them. Usually, in preparation for the Oscars, everyone tries to end the conflict. To date, there has never been an Academy Awards ceremony that has been cancelled because of a strike by writers or actors."
"Every time there's new technology in Hollywood, the business model changes and we go on strike," agrees Efi Lifshitz, co-founder of the local movie theater chain Mobileland, who has been following the business side of Hollywood closely for years. "It happened with the introduction of television into homes, it happened with the introduction of home video devices, and it happened with the advent of cable networks.
"Once upon a time, when a series was broadcast in television reruns, actors and creators would enjoy royalties from each such broadcast. Today, in streaming, even if you click 5,000 times on a show, the amount paid to creators and actors will be the same, regardless of whether a show is successful or not. This is actually one of the main points of contention – how do you even measure the value of the views for the broadcaster?"
"The business model is changing." Efi Lifshitz, photo: from the private album
"But nevertheless there is a significant difference between this strike and previous strikes," he adds, "because this time it is not only technology that changes the business model, but also the nature of the work itself. AI will actually make sure that the human worker is replaced in one way or another by a machine. Whether it's an actor, a screenwriter or an artist designing series openings, as you could see in Marvel's Secret Invasion series, which came out recently. There, AI was used to shape the series opener, and the backlash wasn't as strong. Unfortunately, this is the direction things are going.
"In that sense, I think what's happening in Hollywood is a symptom of a much bigger problem, which exists not only in this industry. There is a big break in the economic structure. On the one hand, there is the threat that humans will be replaced by machines, which is something we can already see on the ground. On the other hand, there is also disgust that the people at the top of the pyramid earn sums that are completely detached from reality."
Efi Lifshitz: "Hollywood is a symptom of a much bigger problem. There is a fracture in the economic structure. On the one hand, there is a threat that humans will be replaced by machines. On the other hand, there is also disgust that the people at the top of the pyramid earn sums that are detached from reality."
In Lifshitz's opinion, the strike actually came at a good time for the studios, because it at least causes their losses to be contained. "They make a lot less money, but they also spend less. I think they're counting on being able to roll with the movies that're already ready, and I don't think they're rushing somewhere."
"Used to being poor"
Despite the very tangible hardships and worries fueling the strike in Hollywood, in the eyes of a significant part of the public, the striking gang is portrayed as privileged, spoiled and lifted from the people. As a collection of millionaire, spoiled and whiny movie stars. However, despite their seemingly glamorous and desirable work in the film industry, most of the strikers are far from super-rich, and such a long strike has a real impact on their ability to survive.
In order to prevent image crises that could reinforce the negative impression and harm the goals of the protests, Hollywood's really big superstars – those who earn between $10 million and $20 million per film – are careful not to be photographed alongside the strikers. However, to help those who do struggle financially, more and more big stars, who are unlikely to suffer from hunger anytime soon, volunteer to open their pockets generously. This week, for example, it was reported that Dwayne Johnson wrote a seven-figure check to support the strikers. Still, the question remains: when will the first cracks in the impressive solidarity displayed so far begin to emerge?
"Screenwriters are used to being poor," Kechels says. "Even at the age of 40 or 50, you can find a screenwriter who struggles and works as a waiter. But as for the players, I don't know if they'll be strong enough. I don't know how long they can pull and last without working. On top of that, the temptations faced by lesser-known players are particularly great. Will they break first?"
"The coronavirus was an earthquake for the industry," Lifshitz recalls. "Cinema has not yet recovered from this, nor will it recover in the coming years. The decline in revenue has been halted, but in the wake of a pandemic, a third of the industry's activity has been wiped out, and the situation will never return to what it was.
"If the strike continues into the October-November regions, it will already be a big trouble for a lot of bodies. This will affect movie theaters, of course, but also the employees themselves, who will have no income for months. From catering to cleaning, film and television productions provide work for many people. But it seems that as far as the creators, writers and actors are concerned, they have reached the point of death."
Lifshitz: "Right now there are too many streaming players on the field. Maybe one of the big tech companies, like Google, Amazon or Apple, will buy one of the studios. In any case, in the short term, I'm not optimistic at all. Not at all. Not nice years ahead of us."
"End-to-end change"
Although the road to the negotiating table still seems long, Kechels is confident that the parties will eventually reach an agreement.
"The question is only when. The studios and streaming companies will pay the royalties," he says. "To rely on previous strikes, that's always what happens in the end. But what will happen with artificial intelligence? There is currently no restriction or policing of this issue, and this is a piece of the thing. That's where I'm afraid. After all, the biggest dream of studio executives is to replace all the screenwriters and all the actors and all the creative types with people who will do exactly what they want and not rattle their brains. But the strike will end, because otherwise Hollywood will cease to exist. It doesn't make sense that after everything we've been through with COVID, the story will end in the apocalypse."
Kechels: "Barbie and Oppenheimer's box office triumphs show studios the power of visionaries who aren't algorithms. It was so much fun to be in a packed hall twice in one weekend. What will happen after the strike? Let's hope more original films."
Lifshitz also believes that an agreement between the parties is only a matter of time. But in his view, the intense upheaval in the film industry is not expected to end anytime soon, but only to intensify.
"I have no doubt that the industry is about to change radically," he declares. "The arrangement they will eventually reach will accompany the parties for at least a decade or two, and it will in fact serve as the basis for all the changes that will come. There is no escape from mergers and acquisitions. Right now there are too many streaming players on the field. Maybe one of the big tech companies, like Google, Amazon or Apple, will buy one of the studios. In any case, in the short term, I'm not optimistic at all. Not at all. Not nice years ahead of us.
"Hollywood will continue the line of releasing content that is not always exciting and satisfying enough, the financial pressure on the studios will increase, but in the longer term, I want to believe that in the end the need for exciting and quality content that has some kind of authenticity will prevail. This past weekend, with Barbie and Oppenheimer, is excellent proof that audiences are hungry for it. I believe it will come back, but it will take a few years."
"The victory of Barbie and Oppenheimer at the box office encourages me," Kechels concludes, "because it shows studios the power of visionaries who are not algorithms. It was so much fun to be in a packed hall twice in one weekend. Since COVID-19, there has been chaos in Hollywood consciousness. There's no real understanding of what's next, and the studios are just trying to survive the era. That's why they seemingly went for it safe and did more and more of the same.
"Now that almost all the major sequels have failed this summer, that era is over. Tom Cruise, who was last year's big hero with Top Gun Love 2, ate it this year. The Marvel movies are less successful than before, and all of their recent films, with the exception of Guardians of the Galaxy 3, have collapsed. DC's films also collapsed. What will happen after the strike ends? Let's hope more original films like Barbie and Oppenheimer. But time will tell."
shishabat@israelhayom.co.il
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