Since Monday, in Washington, they are on vacation. The "technical understanding" with the Fund is a relief two weeks before the PASO, but it does not translate into any palpable improvement in the economy, although it served to calm the financial panic of the market.
Massa finished closing it in San Juan, where he arrived at midnight; He went to bed at two in the morning and got up at six. There were so many comings, goings, trips, non-trips and failed announcements that once the Economy Ministry confirmed it, the media waited for the Fund's statement to disseminate it: the little shepherd, the wolf and the market.
The Fund is not going to put a dollar in until after the PASO. The "understanding" grants Argentina disbursements of US$ 7.500 billion but it is not for love: the country must implement fiscal adjustment measures, wait for the approval of the board and pay the maturities of Monday and Tuesday of next week.
You just have to look at where we got $3.500 billion. At the bottom of the jar there are almost no yuan left. According to the Capital Foundation, the equivalent of $1.400 billion is available. According to the technicians consulted by this newspaper it is impossible to get the second tranche of the swap unlocked in 48 hours so that it is available on Monday.
Although this week with the agricultural dollar it was possible to accumulate more than 400 million dollars, the reserves are in a critical position. For the Capital Foundation -directed by Carlos Pérez who accompanied the management of Martín Redrado in the BCRA- there are negative net reserves of US $ 7,800 million.
Relieving the BCRA of short-term non-receivable debts (such as the swap with China) there are US$ 550 million left to use. But to do so in the middle of an election campaign would mean leaving Massa within striking distance of a currency run. The Fund's statement mentions two stinging issues:
* (efforts should be made) to contain the wage bill.
* Update energy rates.
It also prohibits continuing to give the machine in the rest of the year and requires it to reach December with US $ 8,000 million of reserves. The Fund got tougher than ever because Argentina failed to meet all commitments: according to the goals agreed in February the deficit should be less than $ 1.18 trillion and was $ 1.88 trillion, 59% more.
The reserves were to be US$ 9,077 million and were US$ -5,050 million, this is 280% less; The monetary issue should not pass to June 30 the $ 370,000 million and reached $ 1.35 trillion or 264% more.
"The agreement will have it, but not on the date you want," Kristalina Georgieva told Sergio Massa via zoom on Wednesday, July 19.
"That's a problem," the minister replied.
The Fund insists on ordering the foreign exchange market. Read, make a devaluation. The PAIS tax on imports does not convince them and now there is a deadline until after the PASO to see how it works. If the result is not what Massa promises, the IMF will insist on a 30% devaluation of the peso, which could take the official dollar from 270 to 350 pesos.
The minister-candidate made a counterproposal: raise the tax on imports (today it is 25% for services and 7.5% for goods and freight) to 30% for everything, but only after August 13.
For Hernán Lacunza, who commands Rodriguez Larreta's technical teams, "the government is going to have to take additional measures because this agreement is not enough to solve the BCRA hole. This serves to last two weeks, but not four months."
If mathematics still exists in Argentina, he is right: the Fund gives the country $7.500 billion and Argentina must pay $3.500 billion before that. Only 4,000 million would remain for the country to strengthen the accounts.
Several Congresses of Paranoids of the City wondered on Friday: is the postponement of disbursements until after the PASO for the holidays of the organism or to wait for the result of the elections and shuffle and give again?
A part of the government dreams (or raves?) of seeking loans with China and Brazil to cancel the debt with the Fund and change creditors.
"For China it is little money and they would show themselves as lenders of last resort competing with Washington," says a leading economist K.
Massa under a few kilos and was last week with a flu state that forced him to cancel some events. Its base objective is to get 35 points in the province of Buenos Aires and round 30 nationally. Thus Union for the Fatherland would remain competitive for the general election.
From the bunker they affirm that the electoral message of the Government must have three axes:
1) Unity.
2) Order
3) Defense of the homeland.
It does not sound too credible the "unity" when everyone detests each other, the "order" that has been an asset of Patricia Bullrich (the Government promises "order without pain", which seems bad poetry) and "defense of the Homeland" that evokes the past.
Sergio is the only one who, so far, puts the body to the campaign, Wado has a secondary role, Máximo makes some lost acts and Axel tries to balance between Massa and Grabois. Already in Santa Fe, Peronism tried to "go unnoticed" and the result was appalling.
"We are not giving arguments, we are not selling it to Sergio," says a longtime friend of the minister-candidate.
The desperation is such that they have begun to think about the vote of foreigners, who are authorized to vote in Buenos Aires provincial positions and only need to present their ID. That is why RENAPER offices are taken to the events, and the list of foreigners went from 600,000 to almost 900,000.