A little less than a year remains until the Milwaukee Republican National Convention will determine the party's presidential nominee in the upcoming election, and for now, something unusual needs to happen so that this candidate will not be Donald Trump.
Despite the increasing indictments against him, and perhaps to some extent because of them, the former president has a lead of more than 30 percentage points over Ron DeSantis. Florida's governor, who in late February separated him from Trump by "only" 12.8 percent, saw few gains and too many declines after launching his flawed campaign in May. The gravity of the situation is evidenced by the fact that last week he fired a third of his campaign staff and canceled two events due to lack of interest from donors.
DeSantis walks off the stage in Des Moines. The campaign is bogged down, Photo: AP
The situation with the other contestants is not brilliant either, to say the least. For example, former U.N. Ambassador and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley may have entered the race second, but is still languishing around 4% support.
Haley at the Republican event in Iowa. How do you launch the campaign?, Photo: AP
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who distanced himself from Trump and criticized him after the breach of the Capitol, has about 6% support in the polls and is struggling to secure the funding needed to participate in the televised debate at all.
Lantern. Hovering around 6% support, Photo: GettyImages
Even entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who is calling for the "shutdown" of the FBI, the Department of Education and the "corrupt to the core" tax authority and who is considered the surprise of the race, comes in at most 7%.
Ramswami. Calls for the FBI to be shut down, Photo: GettyImages
When that happens, all the contenders — except Chris Christie — gathered Friday in Des Moines, Iowa, for a sort of "audition" designed to improve their chances in the red, evangelical state, which, being the first stop in the Republican primary, could give a boost — or at least an oxygen dose — to the faltering campaigns.
Republican candidates present their vision in Iowa | Reuters
One by one, the 11 candidates and one candidate came up, attacked the Biden administration (mainly because of high spending and because of its "weakness vis-à-vis China") and promised, in various formulations and doses, law and order at the borders (completion of the wall on the southern border, elimination of fentanyl smuggling) and curbing the progressive agenda in the areas of race and gender.
Bronze. The only one who dared to attack Trump, Photo: AFP
And there was one thing that stood out in the speeches: Almost all the candidates avoided talking about the indictments against Donald Trump or attacking him personally. The only one who deviated from the line was former challenger Will Hurd, a former Texas lawmaker, who said simply: "I know the truth is hard, but if we elect Donald Trump, we'll give Biden another four years in the White House. Donald Trump is not running to make America great again. He is not running for president for people who voted for him in 2016 or 2020. Donald Trump is running to get out of prison." Hurd, whose approval rating is below 1 per cent, walked off the stage to boos from the audience.
With these figures, it seems that, at least for now, the only battle in the Republican Party will be for second place, perhaps with an eye to future campaigns. In the national picture, DeSantis may feel confident, despite the steady decline in the polls, but in strategically important Iowa, he actually has cause for concern, and his name is Tim Scott.
Tim Scott. Climbing in Iowa, photo: Itzafpi
In the latest Fox Business poll, the South Carolina senator narrowed the gap from DeSantis to just 6 percentage points, and according to Fox News pollsters, he also has considerable potential to increase support. "Scott has strong cards in Iowa," said Chris Anderson, one of the survey's authors. "Nearly nine in ten attendees are open to hearing about him, and he draws votes equally from both moderate and conservative Republicans, meaning different types of voters find him interesting."
Regardless of narrowing disparities in Iowa, Scott attacked DeSantis this week for his support of new Florida school guidelines that require teachers to tell students that "slaves learned skills (like sewing or dyeing) that could be earned." Scott rejected the attempt to beautify slavery. "What slavery really was separating families, mutilating and raping women," he said. "It was just devastating. I'd like to hope that every person in this country — let alone a presidential candidate — understands that."
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