"Hezbollah's presence and activity close to the fence, the IDF's operational tolerance, and the failure to complete the deployment of technological means created a situation in which the abduction of soldiers was only a matter of time...", is how the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee described the situation on the northern border on the eve of the Second Lebanon War, in a report summarizing its lessons.
It is hard to shake the comparison between those days, exactly 17 years ago, and the current reality, especially in light of the videos showing armed masked men patrolling the Lebanese side of the fence and observing Israeli territory, defiantly and without any fear.
Lebanese provocation: 18 crossed the border into Israel at Har Dov // Arab networks
Identifies an opportunity in the internal crisis
While the defense establishment has made it clear that the militants did not cross the blue line and posed no danger, the explanations are not only not reassuring, but reinforce the feeling that the balance of deterrence is rapidly being violated to Israel's detriment.
The series of provocations by Hezbollah attests to Nasrallah's growing self-confidence, which not only exacerbates his public threats, but also increases tensions along the border and stretches the rope with Israel. It is not at all certain that he is interested in war with Israel, but what is clear is that today Nasrallah is less cautious about the possibility of deteriorating into this.
Nasrallah sees an opportunity to improve the balance of deterrence created vis-à-vis Israel. This is due to the severe internal crisis afflicting it and in light of the IDF's inclusive approach, which in its eyes is evidence of the government's unwillingness to deteriorate into a military confrontation. Based on this assessment, he is working in a gradual and systematic process to remove the restraints imposed on him over the years, while also strengthening his political standing in Lebanon.
Nasrallah in his last speech. Growing self-confidence, photo: Arab networks
His activity on the northern border serves his goal of establishing for himself a better operative starting point for a future confrontation with Israel – especially for the realization of his plans to penetrate into Israeli territory.
Be prepared for deterioration
The manner in which Israel has responded so far to Hezbollah's provocations has only encouraged it to continue them, and even escalate. When this is the case, there is no choice but to take actions that will cause Nasrallah to whet his appetite.
Israel must continue building the barrier along the border, and not tolerate provocations intended to disrupt its activities. It is right to instruct the defense establishment to prepare specific operations, even clandestine ones, that will signal to Nasrallah that he has exhausted Israel's patience and remind him and Lebanon of the price they paid in the previous adventure during the Second Lebanon War.
The Dahiya quarter in Beirut during the Second Lebanon War. To remind Nasrallah and Lebanon of the prices they paid in the past, photo: AFP
As with Nasrallah's activity, retaliatory measures risk deterioration into war, even if neither side wants it, and we must be prepared for this as well.
The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee concluded the lessons learned chapter on the eve of the Second Lebanon War with a warning "against a recurrence of a situation in which a legitimate strategic political decision, such as the policy of containment, will paralyze and weaken the army." She stressed: "A more cautious but active tactical approach could have been implemented on the northern border, which did not involve a fundamental violation of the policy of containment." These things are also true of the current reality.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us