"In the future, we will be able to connect Israel by train to Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula," Prime Minister Netanyahu declared yesterday at the start of the cabinet meeting. Well, the locomotive that is supposed to normalize the ties between the Jewish state and the first Arab power has left the station. But the tracks on which he makes his way pass through a completely different place - Washington, DC.
The Biden administration has been trying for months to link Saudi normalization with Israel to a breakthrough with the Palestinians. This is the explanation for another report that surfaced yesterday in the administration's home newspaper, the New York Times, according to which in order to get Riyad Netanyahu, Ramallah must be appeased. But Jerusalem rejects the connection, which according to most assessments does not reflect the atmosphere in the royal palace.
Will he have to please Ramallah to get Riyadh? Prime Minister Netanyahu, Photo: Yossi Aloni/Flash90
The powerful Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has been critical of the Palestinians more than once. By the way of trains, one of his statements to Jewish leaders a few years ago was: "I told Abu Mazen - the train [of normalization] has left the station. Decide if you get on it." In other words, Saudi Arabia is no longer willing to leave the key to its own progress, and that of the Arab Gulf in general, in the hands of the Palestinians. That is why bin Salman agreed to the peace treaties between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, and therefore he himself promoted his kingdom's ties with Israel very much, unofficially.
"Semi-normalization"
"Semi-normalization," is how a senior Israeli official defines the current state of relations with Saudi Arabia. For their complete acceptance and externalization, it is not profitable for Israel to pay in Palestinian currency, which would endanger it. This is Netanyahu's longstanding position, and it will not change. He could have sold everything for Palestinian papers long ago.
The keys to progress are not in his hands, Mahmoud Abbas, Photo: AP
So from the Israeli perspective, peace with Saudi Arabia is the product of a completely different give-and-take. The Saudis have long presented their demands to strengthen their ties with the United States, including sweeping economic, scientific, and security agreements. The Americans have an interest in such an agreement in order to curb Chinese expansion in our region, and of course, so as not to lose an ally like Saudi Arabia. Normalization with Israel is actually a byproduct of such a huge deal.
Or, as a senior Israeli official put it all in a conversation with Israel Hayom: "Netanyahu will not change his principled and historic position on the Palestinian issue for an agreement with Saudi Arabia. The path to a breakthrough depends on talks between Washington and Riyadh. This is the return the Saudis are seeking. The Palestinian issue is not on their list of priorities." The official added, "Even so, Israel and Saudi Arabia maintain extensive ties under the table. There is no reason for Israel to take steps that would endanger it in the Judea and Samaria arena, for things that are already happening to a large extent."
Without shaking hands: Biden meets with bin Salman in Saudi Arabia || Saudi TV
What are they willing to give in Jerusalem? The official formula Israel has used since the government was formed is that "no steps will be taken that thwart a future agreement." This is a very broad statement, since no one knows what the future agreement will look like, and therefore not what steps will thwart it.
But beyond this general sentence, there is something else: The Abraham Accords were born as a result of Israel's willingness to suspend the application of sovereignty in the West Bank, which was supposed to happen as part of the 2020 Trump plan. According to the "Deal of the Century," for four years after sovereignty was applied, the Palestinians had to enter negotiations with Israel. If they fail to do so, Israel will be able to apply sovereignty in additional territories. The four years in question are set to end in a year, in the summer of 2024.
Influencing considerations outside the White House, Trump, Photo: AP
What Israel can offer Biden and the Saudis, therefore, is to continue suspending sovereignty for another four years, until late 2028. This is not a hollow promise, since the chances of a Trump return to the white or a victory for another Republican are not insignificant. So the Saudis will receive an Israeli commitment that even if a hawkish Republican president enters the White House, the "full-right" government will refrain from a move that many right-wingers want, commonly referred to as "annexation."
In general, American politics is a big part of the story. According to what is known in Israel, Biden has until December to decide whether he will "go for it." After that, the presidential election campaign will kick into high gear. In addition, an agreement with Saudi Arabia would require congressional approval, and the administration is not sure that Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, will want to give Biden such a historic achievement. So the train left the station, but right now it's parked at a stopover in Washington, D.C.
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