A Star in the Gulf Sky: The Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler of the kingdom no longer hides his ambition to lead the Arab world. Mohammed bin Salman, a controversial leader, is now in the second phase of his leadership.
The first stage was characterized by a meteoric rise, but also by taking measures, some of which harmed the kingdom. Among other things, he launched a war in Yemen, blockaded Qatar, imprisoned Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and intensified his tone toward Iran.
Biden and bin Salman during the latter's visit to Saudi Arabia, photo: Reuters
Now, he wants to put this period behind him and continue the revolution he initiated with the intention of creating a new Saudi Arabia: more centralized in terms of government, more open socially and religiously, and one that aspires to wean itself off oil. Did he learn from his mistakes? Vague. But he began to resort to other means: more diplomatic-economic and less forceful, in order to advance his regional goals, mainly due to different conditions and circumstances.
Netanyahu revealed: "Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman contributed to the achievement of the Abraham Accords" (archive) // From the Facebook page
The wall of isolation around him was already cracked before the war in Ukraine, but this increased the kingdom's weight in the global energy market and intensified the courtship of him.
Global player
Bin Salman is no longer satisfied with leading the Arab world; his aspirations go beyond that – to become a significant player in the global arena. He looks around him with a sense of superiority and even a lack of appreciation for neighboring leaders: heads of Arab states in an ongoing crisis, some of them downright failed states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and bin Salman. The war strengthened his power in the international arena, photo: AFP
His kingdom is the world's largest oil exporter and has Islamic holy sites on its territory. His influence on a billion and a half Muslims and on the global economy is enormous, and he seeks to use it to forge new relations with countries in the region, enemies like Iran and friends like the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia's interest is to reduce tension where possible in order to concentrate on the domestic arena: to bring about prosperity that will be credited to him and prepare the ground for his coronation.
Egyptian President el-Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman (archive) Bin Salman looks supremacist over other Arab leaders, Photo: Getty Images
It has economic power, geostrategic influence, and religious legitimacy. However, there are many challenges along the way. In the domestic arena, there are those who are dissatisfied with his rule and can challenge him, whether because of the openness he led or because he imprisoned, distanced or dispossessed those who stood in his way. In the regional arena, bin Salman began mending wounds and extinguishing fires, some of which he largely ignited. His desire to lead the Arab region will encounter opposition from leaders of countries that were central to the Arab world and have now fallen out of favour, such as Egypt. Egypt's stability depends on the generosity of Gulf leaders, who now seek to clarify to Egypt who sets the tone.
The Gulf has long since become the main arena in the Arab world. Not only economically and politically, but gradually also in sports, science and culture, and as such this is the arena that presents bin Salman with significant political and economic competition. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are breathing down his neck.
Poster showing the Saudi king and crown prince, photo: AP
What about us? Israel has no in-depth knowledge, let alone influence on internal processes in the kingdom, but it does have some influence in Washington and has used this influence in the past to soften American criticism of bin Salman.
The future king presents us with opportunities, first and foremost thanks to a more pragmatic view of possible ties with Israel and even reaching normalization, under conditions and circumstances that suit him. But Israel must also take into account that Saudi Arabia's interests do not fully coincide with its own (and not only regarding Iran), as well as his unique leadership characteristics, and hope that a new bin Salman is upon us.
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