Despite a collection of recent quotes leaked to the media that appear to show Israel downplaying the severity of Hezbollah's tents on its territory on the border with Lebanon, political sources said Monday that there is no intention to neglect the handling of the incident.
Defense Minister Yoav Galant told members of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee yesterday in a confidential discussion held at the Kirya that "this is not a security risk. This is a provocation and a violation of sovereignty, so we will deal with the timing we choose." In other words, there is no risk in the tents themselves that requires immediate action, and therefore the security establishment prefers not to be dragged after Nasrallah's provocations.
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In general, the defense establishment claims, this is a policy in which Israel is not dragged along but responds at the time and place it chooses to act. "That's how we acted vis-à-vis Gaza after the massive rocket fire on the envelope, and that's how we will act in this case as well," said a source familiar with the matter. Netanyahu made similar remarks earlier this week at the start of the Cabinet meeting, referring to Nasrallah's threats. "On a test day, he will find us standing together shoulder to shoulder. Nasrallah knows that we should not be put to the test," the prime minister said.
Like Galant, National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi referred to the erection of the tent itself as non-threatening to Israel from a security perspective. Hanegbi said in an interview with Kan yesterday that the erection of the tents is "child's play." However, Hanegbi added, "We are seeing a loosening of Hezbollah's restraint since 2006."
National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
IDF Chief of Staff, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant, Photo: Haim Tzach/GPO
On Sunday, Netanyahu held a security discussion about the events on the northern border, so it is hard to say that Israel is underestimating developments in the north, but the assessment is that the response will come unexpectedly in order to maintain the effect of surprise and restore Israeli deterrence.
On the other hand, former National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat wrote in his column yesterday in Israel Hayom that Nasrallah is increasingly taking actions that indicate growing self-confidence, and therefore Israel must respond in order to restore deterrence in the north. "In contrast to Israel's actions in the Lebanon war," Ben-Shabbat writes, "Israel should not 'hold back' too much this time so as not to lead to laxity on the northern border." The fear is that in the end, a restrained and too late response may lead step by step to a war event.
Nasrallah in his last speech. Growing self-confidence, photo: Arab networks
It is difficult to separate the provocations in the north from the internal events in Israel. Nasrallah feels that his confidence to carry out provocative actions increases as Israel's deterrence as a result of internal struggles erodes. Still, both the military establishment and the political elements reserve the right of surprise in the response that arrives and are not interested in playing with the conditions created by Hezbollah on the northern border.
Members of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee said yesterday that they understood from intelligence officials present at the discussion that Israel's enemies are already analyzing the situation as if an operational blow to Israel's capabilities had been achieved, and that if the government takes action, it will be an attempt to divert the fire from what is happening on its streets. This intelligence information about the feelings and assessments on the enemy's side was presented as a blow to Israeli deterrence.
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