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1. The topic to highlight: Mixed feelings in Guatemala
Former Guatemalan officials in exile say they fear for democracy in their country in the face of what they see as government interference in presidential elections. However, they also say they are cautiously optimistic that the will of the people will prevail in the August 20 runoff.
In summary: Sandra Torres (former first lady, of the center-right party UNE) and Bernardo Arévalo (former diplomat, of the social democratic party Movimiento Semilla) will face each other on that date, having been the most voted in the first round on June 25.
- This, despite delays in certifying the result because other parties, including the ruling Vamos, tried to invalidate the count for alleged fraud. This was not proven, although the legal dispute caused the campaigns to be delayed by more than two weeks, sparking mass protests.
The participation of the people and their protest is at this moment almost the only thing that Guatemala has to save its democracy."
Thelma Aldana former Attorney General of Guatemala
- After the results were certified, the Attorney General's Office announced an investigation against Semilla for alleged signature forgery, saying it would seek to annul his party registration (technically the MP does not have the authority to supervise political parties). The nation's Electoral Tribunal has called the situation "unprecedented" and the UN has called on authorities not to undermine the process. Semilla denies accusations of mass forgery.
In her own words: Former Attorney General Thelma Aldana, who held the position from 2014 to 2018, says that "grotesque what the Public Ministry is doing against democracy." But she indicates in an interview that she also feels hopeful.
- Aldana fled Guatemala in 2019 and was granted asylum in the U.S. after a U.S. court issued an arrest warrant for alleged embezzlement. Aldana says the charges are fabricated in retaliation for her investigations into presidential corruption.
- Aldana says that the current government, which she describes as a "corrupt pact," is capable "of anything, which makes me worry about what may happen between now and August 20" and even later, on the way to a tentative inauguration of the future president in January.
- "But I also hope that the will of the people to respect their vote is stronger, God willing," says Aldana, noting that the people and their mobilizations are practically "the only thing Guatemala has to save its democracy."
Jordán Rodas and Thelma Aldana.Photos by Carlos Alonzo/AFP and Johan Ordóñez/AFP, via Getty Images
Jordán Rodas, who was human rights ombudsman in the country between 2017 and 2022, says that "the status quo is like a wounded beast. And that's when their blows can cause the most damage for fear of losing their privileges."
- But Rodas, who fled last year when the MP said it was investigating him — prosecutors have yet to say on what grounds — adds that "we still have that small hope of having a different course."
- He believes so thanks to popular protests. Also because Rodas says that the dissatisfied people did make themselves heard, by voting for Arevalo in the second round in a surprising way. The candidate, who has campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, did not appear in the polls ahead of the first round.
The other perspective: President Alejandro Giammattei's government rejects claims it is undermining the electoral process, saying last month that all federal agencies "have worked in fulfillment of their legal mandate" during the election.
- The Attorney General's Office has also defended its actions, saying it is within its rights to investigate possible irregularities.
Overview: There have long been warnings in Guatemala of widespread corruption and repression of the work of defenders, journalists and others.
- The current attorney general, Consuelo Porras, and other high-ranking officials are sanctioned by the United States after being designated as corrupt or anti-democratic figures.
- The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) and other organizations have criticized the Guatemalan government for opening suspicious criminal cases against anti-corruption justice officials, human rights defenders, and journalists in recent years.
- At least 37 former Guatemalan anti-corruption prosecutors have fled to countries including Mexico, Spain, Costa Rica and the United States. About 20 journalists have also left Guatemala.
To be aware: Luis Almagro, secretary general of the Organization of American States — of which the IACHR is part — will conclude this Friday an official visit to Guatemala requested last week by the member countries of the regional organization, which asked to closely monitor how the nation will reach August 20.
To note: Rodas says he has been meeting with staff members of the U.S. Congress to advocate for Guatemalans to obtain Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which would shield them from deportation and which the Department of Homeland Security has already granted to Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Salvadorans and Hondurans.
- "It is important not to lose sight of the issue of the migrant population as there is this international accompaniment for the elections," says Rodas.
2. LIBRE focuses on "Bidenomy"
The group LIBRE Initiative, created with funding from conservative donors and whose mission is to "amplify the voice of the Hispanic community" in the US, has just launched a multi-state campaign in preparation for next year's US presidential elections.
- The message of the campaign is to criticize the Bidenomy (in English Bidenomics), a nickname that joins the name of the president, Joe Biden, with the word economy and that the Government uses to discuss economic measures and achievements.
Why it matters: LIBRE's libertarian-leaning campaign is seeking to reach Latino voters at a time when the GOP has been improving its support among that high-growth demographic.
- For analyst Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston, the campaign is notable because LIBRE appears to be appealing more consistently to Latino voters than the Democratic and Republican parties have done in recent years.
- "Sometimes the Democratic Party tends to rest on its laurels. If the LIBRE initiative enters, Latinos will listen and there will be no counter-narrative," says Cortina.
Overview: Bidenomy was devised by the federal government because senior administration officials have commented that talking about the economy is key to the president's re-election in 2024.
Daniel Garza is the president of the group LIBRE InitiativeDavid Becker/Getty Images
Details: LIBRE's latest campaign, called "Prosperity is Possible," seeks to convince Latino voters in battleground districts in Arizona, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin that it would be damaging to their finances and wallets to continue Biden's policies. These include seeking to write off $39 billion in student loan debt as well as restricting concessions to drill for oil and gas.
- LIBRE will carry out its campaign mainly by organizing local gatherings such as barbecues and events at gas stations where the group will pay for the gasoline of those who come.
In his own words: "I think there is a disconnect [with Bidenomics] because it seems to me that the economic policy approach has not generated true prosperity or opportunities for the Latino community," said Daniel Garza, president of LIBRE.
- Garza said there are still high prices for gas, food and medicine, and from what he has seen, many Latinos still struggle with being able to buy a home because of high interest rates.
- "Inflation is down, but it's still high and purchasing power is still low," Garza said.
Verification: Inflation has declined overall (although prices of some goods and services remain high). While interest rates have no longer increased, although they could rise slightly again. However, the US economy has good momentum and good forecasts for the second half of the year.
- The Biden administration's main message about the economy for Latinos is that the unemployment rate has plummeted and that child poverty among Latinos has fallen by 7%.
3. New Program Props Up Latino Leaders
A dozen Latino community leaders were chosen this week as part of the first Leaders USA group, a program of the Obama Foundation.
Rosamaria Cristello of the Latino Community Center of Pittsburgh.Photo by Jen Barker Worley, courtesy of Rosamaria Cristello
Why it matters: The program will provide one-on-one training and support for six months to help empower 100 "change agents" working on equity and sustainability issues in different parts of the United States.
- "Obama Leaders USA are already making a difference in their communities and are ready to take their work to the next level," Valerie Jarrett, executive director of the Obama Foundation, said in a statement.
Details: Latinos chosen for the program work in various fields, including urban design; bilingual health care; criminal justice reform or education programs for those incarcerated, documentaries, and more.
- Those Latinos designated for Leaders USA come from states with large or growing Latino populations, such as California and Texas but also Colorado, Utah and Georgia.
In her own words: "What excites me most about the program is that it amplifies our community and our work: that we, as a Latino community, are elevated and more visible to the policy or infrastructure in our area," says Rosamaria Cristello, a Guatemalan immigrant who founded and is executive director of the Latino Community Center of Pittsburgh.
- The center, established in 2017 and which will hold its first fundraising event in October, offers a variety of services for Latinos in western Pennsylvania. Among them, assistance with food and school supplies, guides to understand how school districts work, help accessing job training programs or support to make sure that someone who promotes themselves as an immigration lawyer really is and is trained.
- Those are all services Cristello says she wishes her family had had when they arrived in the United States. She says her parents struggled with immigration because of bad advice from an inexperienced lawyer, while she struggled with being the first in her family to go to college without a support network.
- The community leader adds that the recognition with the Obama Foundation will not only benefit Pittsburgh's Latino community, but can help other organizations in the area by being able to "build bridges and connections" with groups nationwide.
4. Summary of key news in Latin America and the Caribbean
1. The leaders of the eight countries that make up the Amazon region will meet next week for the first time since 2009 to discuss measures to protect the Amazon.
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
- Deforestation increased considerably in the area during the last decade, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Bolivia. Although the most recent figures suggest that logging has decreased in recent months.
- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose country is hosting the summit, said this week that he hopes there will also be an agreement to share all biodiversity research in the area.
2. Costa Rica's prosecutor announced this week that his office is investigating President Rodrigo Chaves for allegedly misusing his influence to interfere in a case involving child custody of a businessman.
- Chaves has not responded to the allegations.
Thursday of Pachanga
Every Thursday we publish our Pachanga to highlight readers' achievements. If you or someone you know has just celebrated an anniversary, adopted a pet or had a job success and wants to celebrate, send an email with information and photo to axioslatino@axios.com
Today we celebrate Roberto Y. Hernandez, who is a true pachangero as he helps organize large parties that honor the Latino heritage in San Francisco. He also founded a food bank and is a leader in his community.
Photo courtesy. Background illustration by Axios Visuals
- Roberto is the general director of CANA, Cultura y Arte Nativa de Las Américas. He also founded Mission Food Hub with an eye toward providing food specifically to thousands of Latino families during the COVID pandemic.
Thanks for reading! We returned on Tuesday.
If you want to share your experiences or send us suggestions and comments, send an email to axioslatino@axios.com.
Do you want to read any of the previous editions?
Hispanic Ranchers Denounce Broken Legacy of Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo
Why 40% of Mexicans Behind Bars Have Not Been Prosecuted or Convicted
Marina E. Franco
Co-author of the newsletter Axios Latino and digital reporter in Mexico, specializing in international politics and gender issues. You can send information to marina.franco@nbcuni.com and @marina_ef
Russell Contreras
Reporter for racial/ethnic and justice issues at Axios. Contact: russell.contreras@axios.com and @RussContreras
Astrid Galvan
Astrid Galván is an editor of Axios Latino at Axios. She used to be a reporter for the Associated Press. @astridgalvan