A brief and rather vague sentence by US President Joe Biden at a fundraiser in Maine last weekend brought back to the top of the agenda the (chance of) normalization with Saudi Arabia. Biden has vaguely addressed the possibility of progress in talks between the two countries, but behind the scenes the White House is pinning high hopes on this agreement just before the presidential election year begins. While the political echelon in Israel is trying to lower expectations and wait for things to come, administration officials find it difficult to disguise the importance attributed by the American president's environment to the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Not because it is a "significant gift to Israel," as we would like to think, but because it is an important confirmation of the status of the United States in the clash between the superpowers and China in the Middle East.
A summary of the previous chapters: The Middle East has become a courting arena for China, which sees its economic interests flourishing here, while the US directs efforts (and a great deal of money) towards the war between Russia and Ukraine and dilutes interest in what is happening in the region. Meanwhile, in recent years, the Saudis have fumbled after the Americans, seeking protection from Iranian aggression they had already experienced once in an attack on the kingdom's oil facilities. When they did not respond positively, they entered talks with the Iranians themselves as "keep your enemies closer," and China, which sought to become a significant player in the Middle East, offered protection.
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Last March, an agreement was signed that surprised many between the Saudis and Iranians, mediated by China, and the United States suffered a blow to its image. Political sources in Israel call this "disillusionment." The understanding that any vacuum will eventually be filled has returned American attention to the region on two fronts: one – an attempt to create renewed agreements to halt Iran's nuclear program, and the second – vis-à-vis the Saudis. The US took several weeks to "recover," and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was sent to Riyadh. This trip in itself was the most significant sign of the American president's intention to resettle in the region (or at least try).
More this year
Despite the exaggerated importance that Israel, and Israelis in general, tend to attach to ourselves in processes in the region, the American and Saudi interests in the agreement between the countries are immeasurably greater than those they seek to create for Israel as a third party to the deal. The Biden White House needs to accomplish it before the 2024 election year, so talks are now seen as more serious. Therefore, administration officials told the Israelis that the goal was to reach an agreement before the end of the year. Although studies show that the American public does not vote according to foreign relations achievements (as evidenced by the Abraham Accords at the end of Trump's term), the Biden administration needs to reestablish its status in the region, especially in the face of Chinese involvement.
To pass the deal in the Senate, Democrats would need partial Republican support, a difficult event just before a presidential election. Keeping Israel secret could help the Biden administration overcome the resistance
The Saudis, on the other hand, are crying out for a defense alliance in the form of NATO. Despite the dubious agreement they signed with the Iranians, there is fear of another attack in the kingdom, and there is a belief that only a significant American presence in the region – in the form of an agreement and a security commitment to their safety – will keep them safe. The other interest is in civilian nuclear weapons not for offensive purposes. The countries of the region, which are grateful for experience, including Israel, see this as a sign of Saudi Arabia joining the nuclear race, since Iran also began "only" with nuclear weapons for civilian purposes, and today is a step away from enrichment to a bomb.
Netanyahu will be happy to expand the Abraham Accords, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
And where does little Israel fit into the big picture? It turns out that our craze for greatness is not based only on the Jewish DNA of "Light unto the nations." The United States also made it clear this week that progress in the talks with the Saudis is being made with Israel's knowledge all along. The interest is political in this case – in order to pass the agreement in the Senate (when the time comes), the Democrats will need partial support from the Republicans, a difficult event just before a presidential election. But bringing Israel into the secret, in the way it benefits from such an agreement that will eventually be included in the Abraham Accords, could help the Biden administration overcome the opposition of the other side.
And now to the interests of containment. Until now, the Saudis have enjoyed relations under the radar with Israel, but as the "guardian of the holy places of Islam" in order to advance with Israel to the next level without compromising its status, it will have to deal with the Palestinian issue. The economic horizon between Israel and Saudi Arabia is significant for both sides, along with the possibility of direct flights to Mecca, which are a Palestinian-Arab interest. While the Saudis, as noted, are striving mainly for American returns, they understand that Israel is an inseparable part of the deal, and at the final stage, the demands that the Israeli government will be asked to comply with will become clear in depth.
Well, advanced
Last Thursday, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Riyadh to examine the possibility of completing a tripartite deal between Israel, the United States and the kingdom, which would include normalization, security assistance to Saudi Arabia and, possibly, a change in Israeli policy on the Palestinian issue. Against the background of the additional meeting in Riyadh and Biden's remarks, Israel believes that this time the possibility of an agreement with Saudi Arabia is closer than ever, but is trying not to flood the market with expectations and allow the initial process to proceed without our direct involvement.
Opponents of the government are exerting international pressure to harm it, Photo: AFP
But it is hard to hide Israel's satisfaction at the political level. In the behind-the-scenes talks, this is not only about normalizing Israel's presence in the region and economic ties, but also part of Israel's broader struggle to create and expand a front against Iran in the Middle East. In addition, the US is continuing talks with Iran, but an agreement or agreement, as feared here, now seems more distant. The administration denies reports and bits of information about unwritten agreements with the Iranians to release funds in order to halt progress in enrichment.
Israel, as far as it is concerned, has benefited doubly: the fear of the Iran-US agreement that could deter it from attacking Iran has been dropped by significant percentages, and the expansion of the political front against Iran with Saudi Arabia is actually making significant strides. "We are on an optimistic wait," a diplomatic source told Israel Weekly. "When the United States is once again perceived as a more significant player in the region, this is good news for Israel and an improvement in deterrence against Iranian aggression." If anyone is looking for the most significant return for Israel in this diplomatic event, here it is before him: the United States alongside Israel, alongside Saudi Arabia and against Iran.
Roller coaster
Are the chances higher now than they were six months ago for a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia? Yes. Is it possible to prepare for a summit meeting at the White House – well, depending on who you ask. The US administration says the talks have not yet matured into an exchange of drafts, meaning that it is still a very preliminary and very delicate stage of talks. Just two months ago, Israeli officials said they were not optimistic because of the tense atmosphere between the United States and the Saudis in recent years. Among other things, the Saudis were distressed after Iran attacked their oil facilities and they expected American protection, which did not come.
The American administration does not treat what concerns the demonstrators here as a substantive consideration. In the end, this is a significant agreement for both countries and for their relations, which, as President Biden said just last month, are very important to him
Now, Saudi concern also relates to Iran's response to normalization with Israel and may harm the process. National Security Council Chairman Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel Hayom in an interview last month: "The Saudis are afraid of an agreement with Israel, because they understand that a possible outcome would be blatant Iranian reservations that could exact a price from them. They want a superpower to stand by them in a situation of confrontation with Iran, and that is the United States. The Saudi wishes are mainly from the Americans, I don't know of a wish towards us, and we hope that a formula will be found that can enable progress in Israeli-Saudi relations."
If and when the issue reaches the Israeli government, it will be required to take steps vis-à-vis the Palestinians. Israel has repeatedly made it clear that no steps will be taken that will harm Israel's security, but what is? Returning to the negotiating table is not a dirty word if the Palestinians happen to find their way to it since they abandoned it in 2014. In other words, Israel will be willing to talk but not take steps on the ground. Will it be enough? It depends on who you ask. The Saudis may be satisfied with this; the US administration may actually put more pressure on the Netanyahu government to demand concrete steps.
"It will be convenient for Netanyahu to be pressured on the right against significant concessions, and on the left by the United States in favor of some kind of response to their demands as part of advancing normalization," said a former defense source. The king and the sponsor of the agreement will be required to present a kind of achievement to the Palestinians, but as happened in the Abraham Accords, it will be enough to block moves rather than carry out new ones. For example, not to promote annexation (which has long been off the table). Or the most convenient method for negotiators: the Israeli government can also bring the goat into the house in the coming months, and also undertake to remove it if required.
Right-wing elements in the government – Finance Minister Smotrich and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir – may make it difficult for them to return for the Palestinians, but at this stage they are not speaking out against it at all. Netanyahu will have to maneuver between the demands of his partners and the rare opportunity to lead to a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia precisely when his political situation is not great. The opposition is watching the agreement, but cannot say whether they will support it before its details are published. The only agreement between the opposition and the coalition these days is that a unity government is not on the agenda, as Lapid put it, or that it is "science fiction," according to Netanyahu's people.
The reports about the American demand for the establishment of a unity government in favor of the normalization agreement with the Saudis were, at best, premature, and at worst (and correct) – wishful thinking on the part of the writers. The US administration has also made it clear that it is not involved in Israel's internal politics and that this is not one of its demands in favor of the agreement. Outside support from the opposition, as noted, is possible, but it is not a condition for transferring it.
Netanyahu in the Blitz
As far as Netanyahu is concerned, this is a tremendous achievement. One that can divert the agenda from the continued skirmishes and protests over the legal reform to another great political success that he will lead under his hands. Despite reports that this is a consideration in the United States – whether to allow Netanyahu's government an achievement in the form of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the American administration does not regard what concerns the demonstrators here as a practical consideration. In the end, this is a significant agreement for Israel and the United States, and for relations between the two countries, which, as President Biden said just last month, are very important to him.
Israelis are crying out for visa exemption, photo: Ami Shumen
In fact, the US administration takes pains to emphasize that despite the call for consensual legislation and despite criticism of Israel's moves in Judea and Samaria and the momentum of settlement construction, relations between the countries are "strong and stable." But, and this is a big but, as Biden told Herzog during his last visit, the internal problems and background noise in Israel are making important processes difficult to progress. Biden's thick hint to Netanyahu was received by the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem, and since last weekend, in complete accord with the hot reports of progress vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu has been actively working to change the agenda.
While the protest is trying to reinvent itself in order to survive in the hot summer months without Knesset and legislation (nor government meetings for two weeks), and organizing protests in support of the judges these days, Netanyahu is diverting the debate to other channels, or at least trying. He spent the previous weekend briefing ministers and Knesset members, from whom he sought to lower the flames and call for agreements. He then placed on the government's agenda: promoting infrastructure and railways, high-tech, artificial intelligence, and combating the cost of living, and called on ministers to join him.
Netanyahu is working on this. He spent his last days interviewing in the United States to moderate reports of a coup d'état here. Calming the American mood is an end in itself, since in this atmosphere overseas, Biden will have to promote normalization for Israel. The investment of these efforts shows the great importance Netanyahu attaches to the possible breakthrough with the Saudis, and not only. These days, another procedure that depends on the US administration is entering the final stretch – Israel's entry into the visa exemption program.
While there are elements in Israel that would not like to see the incumbent government cut the ribbon on two dramatic moves courtesy of the United States, and even actively act against them, the political echelon is making great efforts to meet all the American demands underlying the entry into the exemption program. The United States says that Israel has so far met 80% of the demands, and is now in the final and fateful two months before the final decision in the United States.
A pilot is currently underway for the free passage of Palestinians with American citizenship at border crossings and inside Israel and at Ben Gurion Airport, and additional technical matters remain, such as the establishment of security information sharing systems for passengers and the like, in order to score. Unexpectedly, if all the cards fall into place, Netanyahu's right-wing government could lead two dramatic foreign policy gains in the coming months. Not because it was the result of great love between the parties, but because the conditions had matured.
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