Argentina quietly closes its electoral campaign after the violent death of an eleven-year-old girl

The primary elections in Argentina are three days away and there is an unprecedented silence in the streets of Buenos Aires. A climate as rarefied as that of this austral winter without cold. The violent death of Morena Domínguez, an eleven-year-old girl assaulted on Wednesday on her way to school, has knocked out a country that is on the verge of one of the most uncertain elections of its 40 years of democracy. No one knows the impact Morena's violent death will have at the ballot box. This Thursday the campaign closures of the main political forces were planned, but all the pre-candidates for president canceled their electoral acts because of what happened. Most have been silent on social networks and have not granted interviews.

On Wednesday, shortly before seven thirty in the morning, two thieves jumped on Morena to snatch the backpack he was carrying on the way to his primary school in Lanús, a Buenos Aires district next to the Argentine capital. In the struggle, the assailants pushed her to the ground and fled on a motorcycle. Morena died shortly after, already in the hospital, from the blow received. This Thursday, a crowd gathered at the doors of the family home to say goodbye to the child and accompany the father, Hugo Dominguez. Afterwards, dozens of people marched after the funeral procession to the cemetery amid hugs, tears and applause.

Lanús has almost half a million inhabitants and is governed by the opposition coalition Together for Change. The province, on the other hand, is in the hands of the Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof. After the death of Morena, the critics did not distinguish party membership. To the mayor, Néstor Grindetti, the neighbors blamed him for having neglected the municipality to preside over the Independiente football club and campaign for the governorship of Buenos Aires. Kicillof's security secretary, Sergio Berni, was criticized for failing to guarantee citizen security.

The inhabitants of Villa Diamante, the neighborhood of Morena, revealed before the cameras the daily violence they suffer. One teacher said she had been assaulted in the area days earlier. One mother added that so did she. It was a "tragedy foretold," repeated several interviewees. The neighbors denounced the state abandonment and the complicity of the security forces with thieves that everyone seemed to know. They found them in a matter of hours. The suspects are two brothers aged 25 and 28 with criminal records. They are in custody, charged with the crime of homicide on the occasion of robbery.

Crime has stopped in its tracks an election campaign monopolized by the economy. The discussions have suddenly turned towards insecurity. The presidential candidate who has bet the most on the message of a hard hand against crime is Patricia Bullrich. The former Minister of Security of Maurcio Macri (2015-2019) could add votes of people outraged with the attack on Morena, but also lose them if the inhabitants of the province of Buenos Aires decide to turn their backs on Grindetti, their candidate for governor. In the latter case, it could benefit the pre-candidate who is on the extreme right of the Argentine political spectrum, the ultraliberal economist Javier Milei. By carambola, Bullrich's rival in the internal JxC, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, would then be reinforced.

Polls have always shown Bullrich ahead of Larreta, but the gap has narrowed in recent weeks. Between them they would add one in three votes, according to the polls, a percentage somewhat higher than that attributed to the total of the Peronist alliance, split in primaries between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and social leader Juan Grabois.

To the last-minute definition of the undecided is added the unknown of the repercussion that this fact of insecurity will have in the most populous province of Argentina, where four out of ten votes are cast. It is also not known if abstention will decrease or increase, which has approached 30% in the provincial elections held this 2023 although voting is mandatory.

For more than a decade, successive governments have failed to respond to citizens' demands. Argentines have seen their salaries slim faster and faster in the face of voracious inflation, which is now 115.6%, a record in more than 30 years. The loss of purchasing power is the tip of the iceberg of socio-economic deterioration. Many add jobs (increasingly precarious) and not even enough to make ends meet. They travel worse. Early childhood education is worse. Even many families eat worse. The fear of children being assaulted on the way to elementary school is a new broken boundary. From that cocktail of anger and impotence drinks Milei, to whom the polls predict about 20% of the votes.

This Friday begins the electoral ban and on Sunday it is voted. Asked about the possible impact of Morena's violent death, politicians ask to wait. At the bottom, some leaders believe that abstention will increase and others that it will benefit Bullrich or Milei. It has been a hard blow to the social mood. Sunday will see how it translates into the polls.

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