Status: 02.09.2023, 20:45 p.m.
By: Mark Stoffers
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The counteroffensive in the Ukraine war continues to gain momentum. An expert also paints a gloomy picture for Russia in the current situation.
Kyiv – For a long time, the counteroffensive in the Ukraine war did not go as experts, the West and Ukraine itself had imagined. Successes were scarce, progress was sluggish, and Russia seemed to have entrenched itself so well that some already doubted whether the loss of men and materiel could even justify the offensive against the invaders.
But the recent successes of the offensive in the Ukraine war show that patience is a virtue. A virtue that Volodymyr Zelensky and his military strategists had long asked for. "The Ukrainian Armed Forces are moving forward. In spite of everything, and despite what everyone says, we are moving forward, and that is the most important thing. We are on the move," the Ukrainian president said on Telegram about the advance on the territories occupied by Russia.
Offensive in Ukraine war: Significant breakthrough by Russia's "first line of defense"
The Ukrainian advances near Robotyne and in the Zaporizhzhia region give reason for optimism in Kiev and, according to international analysts, are causing nervousness in the Russian army and among those responsible in the Kremlin around Vladimir Putin.
A Ukrainian soldier is preparing to use a bazooka in the Zaporizhzhia region. (Archive photo) © Dmytro Smoliyenko/Imago
According to German military economist Marcus Keupp, Ukraine has made a significant breakthrough through the "first line of defense" of the Russian army on the southern front. The strategic goal of the Ukrainian armed forces is to "split the southern front" and put so much pressure on Russia's troops that they can no longer coordinate their logistics, the expert continued in an interview with ZDFheute live.
No "Hollywood-style breakthrough": Kyiv wants to tear a gap through offensive in the Ukraine war
It is not about a "Hollywood-ready breakthrough", as has often been rumoured. "This command and control is more reminiscent of classic battles of the Second World War," says Keupp. At a certain point, Kyiv wants to tear a gap in the Russian defense, "it has to be five to ten kilometers wide – and through this gap they then push the heavy material, i.e. their reserves."
While snipers hunt down Russia's generals, the expert explains the current situation of the offensive in the Ukraine war: "Ukraine is in the process of opening up this gap right now. So this is a very dangerous moment for the Russians."
Offensive in Ukraine war: Important strategic location "is virtually a sentinel post"
The expert attaches decisive importance for the offensive in the Ukraine war to the town of Tokmak, which seems to be the central linchpin of the strategists from Kiev in order to deal a decisive blow to Russia. From there, Ukraine could "very efficiently stop Russian logistics", as several important country roads ran in this area and, among other things, an important railway line ran south of the town.
"Tokmak is a kind of sentinel that dominates the entire rear area, right up to the Black Sea coast," the expert said on ZDF, classifying the significance of the place in the Ukraine war.
Offensive in Ukraine war: "Turning point" could become a rearguard battle for Russia
A further advance by Kiev in the offensive in the Ukraine war could lead to the fact that the "turning point of the whole operation could begin". "We are now at the stage where it is a question of whether the war is strategically lost for the Russians or not," the military economist analyzes. He is tactically lost for Russia if Ukraine gets into a position to reach the Black Sea coast and shell Crimea.
If Ukraine's forces are indeed stronger than what Russia still has to offer, "then this is just a rearguard action for the Russians," Keupp continues.
"Maximum power development" in the offensive in the Ukraine war
However, with regard to an intensification of the fighting in the offensive in the Ukraine war, the expert is also slowing down. It is assumed that at the moment we are seeing the "maximum of power development". Nevertheless, the speed of Ukraine's current successes should give Kiev confidence. If Russia had a functioning defense, then such a "pocket would not open," Keupp said of the current situation at Robotyne. An assessment that also coincides with reports that Putin's army is in a miserable state.
"I do think that now, in the next few weeks, the strategic decision in this war, that is, at least as far as the southern front is concerned, and as far as the possibility of shelling the Crimea is concerned, will be made," the expert concluded his analysis of the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.