Status: 06.09.2023, 16:42 p.m.
By: Florian Naumann
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A new Bavarian poll sees the Free Voters after the leaflet affair in the high - and that, although the majority of respondents believe the allegations.
Munich - Has Hubert Aiwanger harmed his Free Voters with his crisis management around the leaflet allegations before the Bavarian election? According to the current polls for the state election, the answer is "no": A survey published on Wednesday (6 September) even sees the party rising again in voter favour. But there is an indirect threat of trouble: there seems to be rumbling in the CSU, albeit with emphasized loyalty to Markus Söder and his decisions. From the CDU, on the other hand, comes even open criticism of Söder.
Bavarian election: Free voters soar after Aiwanger scandal
Already on Tuesday (5 September), the Insa Institute had seen the Free Voters soaring: A hypothetical voter support of 15 percent was measured by the pollsters on behalf of Bild. The current "voter check" of the competition from GMS now goes one step further: In the survey for Sat.1 Bayern and Antenne Bayern, Aiwanger's Free Voters even received 16 percent in the Sunday question. The polling period had begun on Monday (4 September) - a day after Söder's decision to leave his deputy Aiwanger in office.
Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (right) is sticking to his controversial deputy Huber Aiwanger. (Archive photo) © Sven Simon/Imago Images
Remarkably, this is a whopping four percentage points more than in the previous survey. There is no complete upheaval in voting intentions. At the beginning of August, for example, Forsa had determined for the Süddeutsche Zeitung 14 percent for the Free Voters. For many months, however, the party had been more likely to be around 11 to 12 percent. In this respect, an upward trend seems to have been strengthened - and it definitely does not look like a slump as a result of the leaflet uproar.
In the case of the other parties, little was done in the new GMS-Bayern survey. The CSU (now 38 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and the SPD (8 percent) each lost one percentage point. The values for the AfD (14 percent) and the FDP remained unchanged - with the Liberals remaining below the five percent hurdle at 4 percent. However, there is still a lot to be done before the elections on 8 October. In any case, the surveys are generally subject to uncertainties. Among other things, short-term election decisions pose problems for the pollsters. At the same time, even in the best case, the Sunday questions are only a snapshot.
| Party | Percent | Change from August |
|---|---|---|
| CSU | 38 | -1 |
| Green | 13 | -1 |
| Afd | 14 | +/-0 |
| Free Voters | 15 | +4 |
| SPD | 8 | -1 |
| FDP | 4 | +/-0 |
"Damage to Bavaria": CSU parliamentary group takes Aiwanger in the sights - but holds to Söder
Politically, the dispute over Aiwanger is probably not yet final. On Wednesday, clear words came from the CDU to Aiwanger's address. More unpleasant for him: The CSU parliamentary group in the state parliament also expressed barely concealed, harsh criticism. "For us, it is clear that Bavaria has suffered serious damage as a result of this leaflet affair, in particular due to the inadequate crisis management and the hesitant apology of Minister of State Aiwanger," said its parliamentary secretary Tobias Reiss. In doing so, he explicitly threw a spotlight on Aiwanger's evasive approach.
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The CSU parliamentary group wants to decide on a "commitment" against any form of anti-Semitism and contempt for humanity at the special meeting of the state parliament interim committee on Thursday (7 September, from 12.00 noon), as it announced in advance. Jewish life and culture are an integral part of society and must be protected, the motion says. The leaflet in question was "condemned in the strongest possible terms" - as "disgusting and inhumane". However, the parliamentary group supports the decision for Aiwanger to remain in the office of Minister of Economic Affairs.
Bayern poll paradox: Majority does not believe in Aiwanger's brother version - but is in favor of remaining minister
The latter is also done by the clear majority of respondents in the current GMS survey: 67 percent judged Söder's decision to be correct. Among CSU voters, the figure was as high as 89 percent, compared to only 18 percent in the camp of those willing to vote for the Greens.
In this light, another result of the survey also seems remarkable: only 39 percent believed the account that Aiwanger's brother wrote the anti-Semitic pamphlet, but 53 percent believed the accusations against Hubert Aiwanger himself. However, large parts of the respondents did not seem to be bothered by this presumed authorship. However, 54 percent of the survey participants demanded that Aiwanger now "prove his good disposition".
Aiwanger debate: CDU deputy shoots sharply against Söder - remaining in office a "turning point"
The mood in parts of the CDU leaders is different. "I was shocked that Aiwanger appeared triumphant after Söder's decision – instead of showing remorse and humility, as required," said CDU Vice-President Karin Prien on Wednesday. "The debate about Aiwanger and the fact that he remains in office is a turning point for the culture of remembrance in Germany," she complained. A clear spike against the sister party CSU and Söder as its boss. Aiwanger is pursuing a "perpetrator-victim reversal", which is "really reprehensible", Prien explained at the same time. Other observers had recently drawn parallels to ex-US President Donald Trump.
Renewed criticism also came from Holocaust survivor Ernst Grube. "I don't take this apology from him at all," he said, referring to Söder's deputy head of government. Aiwanger is no longer credible - "and, in my opinion, politically and morally no longer suitable for the office of deputy prime minister," Grube wrote in a guest commentary for the Jüdische Allgemeine. (fn with material from dpa)