"Peace with Saudi Arabia" is the new national mami, the great gift that will come in 2024, one worth imagining with bright eyes. At least that's the atmosphere in the studios and newspapers, and also in the space between the Prime Minister's Office and Gaza Street in Jerusalem.
In reality, however, reconciliation between Israel and the great and ancient Arab kingdom is almost as complicated as a compromise on legal reform.
Netanyahu on the Israeli flight from Saudi Arabia: "Appreciates the good neighborliness, happy that everyone is coming home" (Archive)
A large part of the Saudi demands, the Americans will not be able to fulfill – after all, Biden cannot prevent the mention of Khashoggi's body in the American media. It will be even more difficult to approve an agreement by a two-thirds majority in the Senate that obliges the United States to wage a war to defend Saudi Arabia from Iran.
In the current era in the United States, no one is enthusiastic about wars in the Middle East. The comments made last week by Republican challenger Vivek Ramaswamy certainly reflect the consensus in the United States. "This is not our war," he said of the Iranian threat.
Will not be able to fulfill all requirements. US President Joe Biden, photo: Reuters
Moreover, peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be a huge political reward for Biden. For all their love for us, it's hard to believe that Republicans would lift a lame president off the boards on the eve of an election. Recent polls show Trump on the rise, and he is already on par with Biden. What reason does he have to give free gifts to Biden?
Moreover, Trump still has an open account with Netanyahu. The former president will have every reason to say, if and when, that "the agreement Biden reached with Saudi Arabia is terrible, I will bring a good deal," thus creating a sweep in the Republican Party against the agreement.
Middle Eastern nuclear bath
The defense establishment is convinced that if Saudi Arabia enriches uranium, Egypt and Turkey will also rush to do so. In other words, instead of a new Middle East, we will get a Middle Eastern nuclear bath. It doesn't sound particularly exciting, and there are already voices in the Israeli defense establishment opposing this idea.
A thick hint that not every agreement will be automatically adopted by everyone was provided this week by Yuli Edelstein, when he said at a conference of the "securityists" and the Jerusalem Center that "there are much more sensitive clauses [in the emerging agreement with Saudi Arabia] than what is reported in the foreign media. The agreement is of great importance, but there is also thinking about cost and benefit, along with the need to preserve the strategic situation in the Middle East. I'm not sure that the clauses relating to Judea and Samaria worry me the most."
It will be difficult to support the agreement. Yair Lapid (archive), photo: Noam Moshkovitz, Knesset Spokesperson's Office
Last but not least, opposition leader Yair Lapid, who told Biden's people in Washington this week: "I will find it difficult to support an agreement that includes uranium enrichment on Saudi soil." Can you imagine Biden taking a step that Lapid opposes, in order to help Netanyahu? The truth is that this is a rhetorical question.
The full column will be published tomorrow in "Israel This Week"
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