Status: 12.09.2023, 18:13 p.m.
By: Florian Naumann
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New poll figures could indicate a CSU debacle in the election in Bavaria: Söder's party is stumbling – the Free Voters are on a record course.
Munich - Markus Söder's worries are not getting any smaller just four weeks before the Bavarian election: A new poll commissioned by BR also sees his CSU at a painful low. The Free Voters of his controversial Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters), on the other hand, are climbing another small peak in voter favor - in the middle of the aftermath of the leaflet affair.
Poll raises fears of CSU debacle - Aiwanger's Free Voters at new record level
In the BR's new "Bavaria Trend" published on Tuesday, the CSU again does not exceed 36 percent, as in two previous polls. This is the lowest poll figure in more than a year and a half; lower than the already historically bad state election result in 2018 (37.2 percent).
The Free Voters are at 17 percent in the representative survey of the Infratest dimap institute. This is one percentage point more than in two polls conducted by other institutes last week – and the highest value that the Free Voters have ever achieved in a survey. Compared to the "Bavaria trend" from May, it is even an increase of five points. In the 2018 state election, Söder's later coalition partner won 11.6 percent. However, the survey took place from 5 to 9 September, partly before the special session of the state parliament on the Aiwanger case and also recent allegations by former classmates of Aiwanger.
Current Bavarian survey: Free voters outstrip the Greens in the Aiwanger high, FDP fears
If the state elections were held next Sunday, the Greens would only end up in third place with 15 percent, according to the survey. The AfD comes in the "Bavaria trend" to 13 percent and the SPD to 9 percent. For the FDP, it is getting tighter and tighter: With 3 percent, according to this survey, it would clearly fail at the five percent hurdle, so it would no longer sit in the state parliament. The Liberals around top candidate Martin Hagen had recently reached at least 4 percent in many polls for the state election.
Political scientists had recently cited a mixture of increased awareness and solidarity effects for Aiwanger as the reasons for the soaring popularity of the Free Voters. The 52-year-old defends himself against accusations of having written an anti-Semitic leaflet during his school days. Instead, his brother claimed to be the author. Aiwanger admitted, however, that "one or a few copies" had been found in his school bag.
| BR survey value September | Compared to May | |
|---|---|---|
| CSU | 36 percent | -3 |
| Free Voters | 17 percent | +5 |
| Green | 15 percent | -1 |
| Afd | 13 percent | +1 |
| SPD | 9 percent | -2 |
| FDP | 3 percent | -1 |
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After several days, and also after further accusations about his school days, Aiwanger apologized, but at the same time went on the counterattack and complained of a political campaign. In the end, Söder rejected Aiwanger's dismissal as "disproportionate". The CSU and the Free Voters want to continue their coalition after the election.
However, Söder and Aiwanger have one advantage over their competitors: great popularity in Bavaria. According to the survey, 98 percent of respondents know the CSU prime minister, 92 percent his deputy. Otherwise, only Green figurehead Katharina Schulze (61 percent) is mostly known. The name of Bavaria's SPD frontman Florian von Brunn meant something to only 42 percent of respondents – the AfD top candidate Karin Ebner-Steiner only has a level of awareness of 33 percent.
Before the Bavarian election: Söder tours, traffic light stumbles - but the CSU can not score in polls
Should the result on the evening of October 8 turn out to be as the current polls look, Söder would be responsible for a further slump in the CSU. But even if the Aiwanger affair should be a factor, the CSU had hardly exceeded its 2018 result in previous polls. And this after more than five years of Söder's reign: although he has been touring the country tirelessly for a long time. And despite the drastic loss of prestige of the Berlin traffic light coalition. Even before the Aiwanger case, quite a few CSU members had noted that the party should actually be in a better position.
Markus Söder during an appearance with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer on Tuesday. © IMAGO/Frank Hoermann / SVEN SIMON
The Free Voters, on the other hand, are likely to go into coalition negotiations with the CSU massively strengthened, should their soaring popularity – and demands for more than the three ministries so far are also conceivable. To date, Aiwanger's party has held the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Culture.
Söder adheres to the "fever curve" thesis - new survey sees majority for Aiwanger's leaflet version
Söder called the high poll values for Aiwanger on Tuesday, even before the publication of the current "Bayerntrend", again "a fever curve of solidarity". "We will see what the citizens decide in the end in the election," he stressed. However, the new BR survey also provides astonishing figures on the leaflet affair.
A good two-thirds (68 percent) of Bavarians consider Söder's adherence to Minister Aiwanger to be correct, according to "Bayerntrend", while just under a quarter (24 percent) consider it wrong. 53 percent of Bavarians consider Aiwanger's explanations to be credible - 35 percent do not. In a survey by the GMS Institute, a majority of respondents did not believe Aiwanger's version. When asked about politician satisfaction, there was virtually no change in Söder and Aiwanger compared to May.
In principle, election polls only reflect an opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts for the outcome of the election. They are fraught with uncertainties: Among other things, declining party loyalties and shorter-term election decisions make it difficult to weigh the data collected. Infratest dimap gave the fluctuation range as follows: 2 percentage points for a share value of 10 percent, 3 percentage points for a share value of 50 percent. (dpa/fn)