Status: 12.09.2023, 20:39 p.m.
By: Christian Deutschländer
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The current Bayern polls are not a mere "snapshot". They indicate that the CSU is losing its cohesiveness, comments Christian Deutschländer.
Today is election day in Bavaria. Yesterday too. And tomorrow. Because postal voting has been going on for a long time, and for the first time more than every second vote is cast beforehand, polls can no longer be comfortably shaken off as a "snapshot". Every moment counts. The current "Bavarian trend" is therefore explosive.
Even if its numbers are difficult to explain. How can it be, for example, that a level-headed and constructive FDP still sags after the Aiwanger quarrels? That the undisputed diligence of a CSU candidate Markus Söder threatens to lead to a record low for his party?
Before the state election: The CSU loses binding power - Söder's party will ask itself questions
Bayern didn't become left-wing overnight, never will. Around two-thirds of voters are still gathering to the right of the SPD and the Greens, as they have been for decades. In the bourgeois camp, however, the balance is shifting more and more. At 36 percent, the CSU only reaches just over half of this spectrum. In other words, the CSU is losing its binding power. And this in months of anger over the traffic light coalition in Berlin and in view of a strong Bavarian data situation in almost all policy areas.
Historically, such challenges have rarely existed, but when they did, they were overcome by the eternal ruling party. In the 50s, she marginalized the Bavarian Party, from the 80s the Republicans, always over longer distances. It seems as if she lacks the strength to do so today. As if it were content with the "that's just the way it is" reference to fragmented party systems and turbulent times. Both are true, but they are not enough. The CSU, which is tailored to Söder, will ask itself intensively after this Bavarian election why it lacks credibility. And what she has to change in order to convince more than just a third of Bavarians in the future.
Christian Deutschländer
The Bayern polls are no longer snapshots for Markus Söder's CSU, says Christian Deutschländer. © Editing: picture alliance/dpa/Christian Kolbert/Schlaf/fn