On his last day as prime minister, Yesh Atid left a note on his office desk for his successor, Netanyahu, in which he wrote: "Lapid 2024." The note did not say "Lapid <>," so even the opposition leader exempted us from the question of whether we will celebrate next Rosh Hashanah with the same government. Although the prophecy was given to the fools, there are some landmines that could destabilize the government in the coming year.
The first of these is the legal reform. Surprisingly, it seems that here the government has more room to maneuver than it seems. Against the background of the effective protest, almost all the coalition leaders internalize and agree to a legislative freeze during the winter, and now the question is only what the packaging will include and when. The ultra-Orthodox, Netanyahu and many in the Likud are tired of the issue and are eager to change public priorities. Smotrich is also more pragmatic than it seems, and it is believed that while Ben-Gvir will oppose compromises, he will show tolerance for them in return for adequate compensation on other issues.
The 36th week of the demonstrations: the protest in Kaplan, photo: Kaplan Force
The discussions in the coalition on a unilateral outline indicate that there is a considerable chance that the composition of the committee for the selection of judges will not change this term, but will only change the majority required to select judges alongside a change in the composition of the committee, which will take place in the next Knesset. Such a minor change, along with a legislative freeze for a year or more, will naturally slowly remove the legal discourse from the agenda.
On the other hand, sources in the coalition say that things will also be affected by the High Court decisions. If the reasonableness law is struck down outright, it will be more difficult for the coalition to sit idly by against the right-wing base.
The talks in March at the President's House, Photo: Kobi Gideon/GPO
The second mine is the Palestinian issue. Amazingly, Netanyahu has almost reached the point where he is opening the year outside the Prime Minister's Office. The transfer of armored vehicles to the PA was done at the military level, and Netanyahu did not recognize this in real time. The reactions, which arose only in light of the doubt that weapons had passed, indicate Netanyahu's limited room for maneuver on the Palestinian issue, even within the framework of a possible normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
His partners will not agree to any serious compensation for the Palestinians – not territories, not weapons and not a construction freeze. Assuming these are the demands, Netanyahu should now return to the path he prides himself on: peace for peace. Anything else could end peacefully in exchange for Smotrich and Ben-Gvir.
Prime Minister Netanyahu at the start of the Cabinet meeting: "Whoever tries to harm us, whoever sends terror against Israel - will pay the full price" // Photo: GPO
Opposition from the ranks of the Likud as well
The issue of the draft law is also expected to be significant for the government's survival this year. In contrast to the reform, the issue of the draft law is also criticized from the ranks of the Likud and Religious Zionism. Galant has already announced that he will not support a law that includes a full exemption for Haredim so that they enter the labor market early, so the government intends to try to overcome the challenge with a law with recruitment targets, which was included in the coalition agreements in the unity government with Gantz.
But that, too, is problematic. Frosh and the Hasidim do not accept the goals with equanimity, and this too is expected to be widely opposed. This is Israbloff – the recruitment targets will be soft and without sanctions, and will be determined by a government decision. The number of Haredim who in any case leave the yeshiva and enlist will be measured each year, and will be set as targets to be set. In other words, goals that are already being fulfilled.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us