From secret contacts to a tripartite diplomatic move: The normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia has not yet become an official document, and there is still a long way to go until the celebrations on the White House lawn, but this week in the Netanyahu-Biden meeting and later in an interview with the Saudi crown prince, the secret talks have become an undeniable fact. The talks are still being held by only two sides to the deal, Saudi Arabia and the United States, but two obstacles will require Israeli approval before they progress: gestures to the Palestinians and the construction of nuclear facilities on Saudi soil.
At a press briefing this week, a senior diplomatic source said that "the United States and Israel are in the same position on this issue." In other words, no nuclear facility will be built without American supervision. At this stage, Israel relies on American negotiations, and the Israeli defense establishment is involved in a separate track led by Defense Minister Yoav Galant. The basic assumptions in the political system are that the United States conducts the contacts with the Saudis from a rigid stance on the nuclear issue, and in accordance with the principles to which the United States is bound by the American Nuclear Non-Proliferation Law.
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Another basic assumption is that at this stage, Israeli restraint is required, and therefore opposition leader Yair Lapid's campaign against a Saudi nuclear program appears to be a political campaign, unjustified at this stage, with one goal: to bash progress toward normalization under Netanyahu. A survey conducted last month by the Viterbi Center of the Israel Democracy Institute, among 750 respondents, found that most of them (57%) see importance in an Israeli-Saudi agreement – and moreover, a large majority of 77% of them belong to the political left (alongside 63% of the center and 56% of the right). At the same time, it should be noted that the same rate of respondents (57%) oppose Israeli agreement on a civilian nuclear facility in Saudi Arabia.
Unjustified campaign, MK Yair Lapid, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
American supervision - a must
In an interview with American media this week, Mohammed bin Salman revealed his motives, not for the first time, when he said: "If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, we must have them as well." Indeed, the blame for the developing nuclear race in the region is also blamed by political and security elements in Israel on the same US signing of the nuclear agreement under Obama.
Former National Security Council Chairman Yaakov Amidror told Israel Hayom that "the arms race was opened by the Americans on the day they signed the agreement. We warned them about this when they went to the agreement with Iran, they did not heed our warnings, and the Saudis now happened to be the first. They now want what was given to the Iranians."
According to him, given the current situation and the Saudi demand, Israel must ensure that the nuclear program in Saudi Arabia does not exist without American involvement. "Israel needs to make sure that what is not built in Saudi Arabia will be under American supervision, and cannot continue to exist without American involvement. This is an obstacle that needs to be thought about how to get through," Amidror stressed.
Nuclear facility in Iran (illustrative), photo: Reuters
Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the INSS Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), says that the United States needs Israeli nuclear support on Saudi soil, otherwise Biden will find it difficult to pass such an agreement in the Senate. "Over the past 13 years, the Saudis have not been willing to give up uranium enrichment in their territory and are not willing to sign the IAEA's Additional Protocol that will allow inspection. I'm worried because the Saudis don't come with clean hands. This is a country that has aspirations to reach a nuclear balance with Iran. That's what bin Salman said in his voice this week and also in 2016."
As for the claim that Saudi Arabia will fulfill its aspirations under Chinese sponsorship far more dangerous if the United States does not allow it a nuclear program, Guzansky says: "That's half true. The Saudis have been negotiating with the Americans on the issue for more than a decade and have failed to reach agreements, but they are more interested in Western technology than Chinese technology.
Yoel Guzansky, Photo: Yossi Zeliger
"Nor will they go with the Chinese, because it will be a kiss of death for relations with the Americans. Bin Salman wants a defense alliance and sophisticated weapons from them, and some of these are intended to strengthen ties with the United States due to fear of Iran."
The Fear: An Agreement Without Israel
The significant concern raised by Dr. Guzansky is that civilian technology could easily be converted into military routes, nationalize the means, and expel the Americans along the way. Therefore, Amidror's proposal is the most significant for Israel: ensuring that Saudi dependence on the operation of the nuclear facilities will remain in the hands of the Americans at all times, and will not endanger the entire region like Iran.
Amir Avivi, chairman of the security movement, also blames Saudi demands for nuclear weapons on the weakness displayed by the United States in the Middle East, and therefore, in his view, Israel's primary interest is to secure the axis of countries that oppose Iran and include the Saudis in it, even at the price of a supervised nuclear program in Saudi Arabia.
Amir Avivi, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
"Following normalization with Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Pakistan and Oman will also come," he said. "This is a huge event taking place vis-à-vis the parallel axis of countries that has been built, Russia-China-Iran, as well as in the economic agreement between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, India, China and others, in which Israel is a significant pillar.
"And that's despite the fact that we would expect the U.S. to say that it is challenging the Eastern Bloc with its weakest link, Iran, and to be prepared for a credible military threat. But instead of building their global deterrence, they are trying to give the Saudis what they want without closing the door to Iran."
"While Israel will not be able to concede on the Palestinian issue to the demands of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, it will be forced to be flexible on the nuclear issue," Avivi said. Building a civilian nuclear facility is not the right way, but in light of the global regional picture I described, it would be the lesser evil if the enrichment was done under full American control and without giving them an unsupervised facility."
Another possible alternative, which is worse for Israel, is for the United States and Saudi Arabia to move forward without it and without Israel's ability to influence the agreement. In such a situation, warns Dr. Guzansky, "there is a scenario in which we will come out bald from here on out – the Americans will sign a bilateral agreement to which Israel is not a party, we will not accept normalization, and we will accept only the bad consequences of a Saudi nuclear program."
In the current situation, it is Israel that needs to "sell" the agreement in the United States, when it says that it is ready for an enrichment program only under close American supervision.
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