Sights in the village of Zabuch can not leave anyone indifferent. The swarm of cars and people slowly creeping toward the border with Armenia is so vast that the entire spectacle is immediately painted in historical colors, making clear to the bystander the simple fact: Azerbaijan's landslide victory over the Armenian separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh will change the map of the Caucasus forever.
Armenian refugees fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh. Reuters
The road from Stepanakert, the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, to the border with Armenia takes only 80 kilometers, but these days it has become an endless traffic jam of cars packed with people and packets. Serov, the father of a family of five, who was reluctant to reveal his last name, says he made the journey with his children and wife in three exhausting days. Serov's old Lada is the most common vehicle in traffic, but there is no shortage of newer and more expensive cars. Income differences and economic gaps were erased abruptly, at least on the surface.
In this trouble, which has landed on the heads of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, everyone seems to be equal. "We left everything without thinking too much," he admits. "It doesn't occur to me that we will remain living under Azerbaijani rule, risk and endanger the lives of our children, especially after the whole world betrayed us."
'The whole world betrayed us', refugees arrive in Armenia, Photo: EPA
Serov's words summarize well the feeling of Armenian refugees just hours before they cross the border and leave what was home for them and their ancestors. As far as they were concerned, they all abandoned them: their native Armenia – because it did not present a military force worthy of its name against Azerbaijan and chose not to confront the Azeri army sent to take over Nagorno-Kabakh; Russia – because it did not live up to the expectations placed on it and its peacekeeping force stood idly by instead of serving as a buffer against the Azeris; And the West, because it is reluctant to deter Azerbaijan with political threats.
"We were left alone," Serov completes his geopolitical analysis and sighs. His disappointment with the Russians is particularly acute. As we talk, Russian news sites are reporting tons of humanitarian aid allegedly being brought by Russian soldiers to Stepanakert and distributed to residents of Nagorno-Karabakh. "They are not ashamed to brazenly lie," Serov quips, peppering his assertion with a Russian curse. "In Stepanakert there were no residents left at all - there is no one to divide to, all the Armenians left."
'We are left alone', refugees arrive in Armenia, Photo: AFP
The dry numbers verify Serov's testimony and the appearance of the eyes. Within a few days, almost 100,120 Armenians had crossed the border into Armenia, and if we assume that a few tens of thousands are still huddling along Nagorno-Karabakh's narrow roads on the way to the border, the conclusion is that all Armenians are leaving the region: by most estimates, the population of the region is between 150,<> and <>,<>.
Nevertheless, the atmosphere in the border area does not convey danger. The mountain passes and valleys look more pastoral than ever, and the sounds of gunfire are not heard in the vicinity. The Azeri soldiers, stationed near the Armenians' escape corridor, are correct, polite and smiling. The Azerbaijani authorities reached out to the Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh and offered to hold talks with their representatives to ensure their safe integration into Azerbaijan. One round of talks took place last week, but the massive exodus of Armenians is likely to make the process redundant. In a few days, there will be no one left to integrate.
Nearly 100,<> Armenians have crossed the border into Armenia, Photo: AP
Representatives of the Azeri government announced that the Armenians had nothing to fear, but they did not really go out of their way to persuade those fleeing to stop. It's hard to blame them: the hostility and mistrust between the two peoples is so severe that actual population separation may be inevitable.
At the same time as civilians flee, the military units of Armenian separatists disarm. This is where the Russian peacekeeping force plays a role – in order to alleviate the sense of humiliation, Armenians prefer to surrender their arms to the Russians, rather than to the victorious Azeri. The separatist leaders took another symbolic step to maintain their pride, announcing that the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic they had established would cease to exist as of January 1, 2024, as if it were their sovereign decision and not the result of a military loss at the hands of Azerbaijan. Perhaps the announcement will strengthen the national pride of Armenians a little, but in its confusion it does not fool anyone. Here the result is clear: in the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan won.
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