Status: 11.10.2023, 12:00 p.m.
By: Wolfgang Hauskrecht
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How explosive is the situation around Israel in the Middle East? Expert Steven Höfner does not give the all-clear from Ramallah.
Munich/Ramallah – Steven Höfner is head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in the West Bank, which, along with the Gaza Strip, is part of the State of Palestine. We reached him in Ramallah. Höfner considers the situation to be highly explosive – and does not rule out the possibility that Iran will enter the war.
Münchner Merkur: Mr. Höfner, what is the situation like in Ramallah?
Steven Höfner: There is tension in the air. Yesterday there was a general strike, most shops are closed, people stay at home. Everyone is looking towards Gaza. There have been sporadic attacks on military checkpoints and a dozen Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank in the past two days. Many are sure that the situation will worsen here in the next few days.
Is an insurrection conceivable?
Hamas called on its supporters in the West Bank to take up arms on Saturday. We know that there are many armed militant groups here that are also ready to fight. The risk is high.
This attack is so unique in its brutality that it is no longer possible to draw comparisons.
Steven Höfner of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation sees a completely new situation after Hamas' invasion of Israel.
Gaza Faces Humanitarian Catastrophe - "Hamas Has Deliberately Taken This Risk"
Israel has ordered the complete closure of the Gaza Strip. No energy, no food. What does that mean?
The Gaza Strip is mainly supplied from outside. It is said that the supply of fuel and food will be used up after about ten days. After that, a humanitarian catastrophe threatens. In the past, there were often signs of relaxation after seven days in order to at least allow humanitarian aid. But this attack is so unique in its brutality that it is no longer possible to draw comparisons. There is no way for the people of Gaza to escape. They are in danger – and Hamas has deliberately taken this risk.
Israel has announced a complete dismantling of Hamas.
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My Area
Israel will no longer accept that Hamas is in control of the Gaza Strip. The events are a turning point in the conflict. The scenarios range from a complete occupation of the Gaza Strip by ground troops, to the complete destruction of Hamas structures, to a new formation of the territories, including the West Bank. However, Hamas structures are not so easy to destroy. There are a lot of cells, including in the West Bank. And it has an international network.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi supports Hamas' attack on Israel. In Tehran, people took to the streets with Palestinian flags. © Photomontage/ZUMA Press Wire/Iranian Presidency Office/Pacific Press Agency/IMAGO
Also with Iran ...
Iran has provided Hamas with weapons, technology and funding. This attack could never have been rehearsed only in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has coordinated with Iran and with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is behind Hamas and is the decisive factor. The big question is whether he will jump straight into the confrontation.
Iran backs Hamas: "The question is whether it will enter directly into the confrontation"
Could it be that Iran is declaring war on Israel?
I wouldn't rule that out in this dynamic situation. First of all, you have to look at Hezbollah, because it is closer. However, as far as Iran's military capabilities are concerned, and in view of the global situation with the Ukraine war, there are certainly fears that Iran, which is under enormous domestic pressure, could use this momentum to achieve its power interests.
This also poses new challenges for the United States.
The U.S. has made it very clear that it will support Israel. This, in turn, further contributes to the formation of a global bloc: on the one hand, Israel, the USA and certainly also NATO and the EU – on the other hand, the Palestinians, who look to Iran, to Russia and also to the attitude of China.
That sounds like a long-term conflict...
In view of the history of the conflict and the fact that a great deal is breaking ground at the moment, I am pessimistic that this will calm down in a few days.
War in Israel also raises many questions for Netanyahu - Hamas' promises to be taken with a pinch of salt
Are attacks also to be expected in our country?
This is very speculative. Hamas has always emphasized that it does not carry out attacks outside Israel and Palestine. But she has also always emphasized that she would never attack foreign citizens. But there are also many internationals among the victims. That's why I wouldn't pay so much attention to Hamas' promises.
Hamas has taken Israel by surprise. What does this mean for Prime Minister Netanyahu?
It will take a lot of time to come to terms with Israeli politics. Once the escalation is under control, there will be many questions for Netanyahu – but also for the intelligence service, which did not see the attack coming. The question will be whether the current government will be able to stay in office. I doubt it.
Interview: Wolfgang Hauskrecht
Transparency note: This interview was first published in the October 10 print edition of the Münchner Merkur.