Hundreds of military and governmental targets of the Hamas terrorist organization attacked in the past 25 hours, 10.2023.<>/Danbar IDF
At a time when the nerves of the citizens of the State of Israel are alert for the military option for a large-scale ground maneuver in the Gaza Strip, the question of the timing of the entry of the fighters into Palestinian territory looms.
As soon as the IDF declares full operational readiness for the maneuver, every moment that passes can harm the general morale of the fighters and the motivation of the reserve forces who left everything and enlisted in Order 8 for the Great War. In practice, however, the War Cabinet has a variety of considerations that must be taken into account before approving the operation: an American request to delay the maneuver until defense systems are transferred to the Middle East due to the fear of attacks by Iranian proxies; secret negotiations for the release of additional abductees; preparing the Palestinian territory for maneuver; and the erosion of Hamas' military-terrorist wing from the air, particularly the Hamas leadership in the underground space.
Senior sources in the defense establishment rejected criticism of the delay in entry, stressing that "ground maneuvers into Gaza are a matter of time, despite achievements from the air." However, it is also important to emphasize that with each passing day, the legitimacy in the international arena for broad and aggressive Israeli action is eroding.
Israeli tank on the Gaza Strip border, this week/Image processing, Reuters
The achievements of the ground maneuver in Gaza connects to another important question: What will bring the citizens of the western Negev back to their homes? The War Cabinet answered this clearly: destroying Hamas and removing the security threat from the Gaza Strip. However, in order to change the reality, a broad ground operation, over time, will be required in the model of Operation Defensive Shield, after which the IDF embarked on a series of operations for five years. It is unreasonable to expect residents to return to their homes when the threat is still present in the area.
The southern arena is also connected to the IDF's demarcated campaign against Hezbollah. Civilians on the northern border have declared that they will not return to their homes without removing the threat at the border, with fighters from Hezbollah's elite unit, the Radwan Force, patrolling the border and planning a raid on the settlements and a massacre similar to that carried out by Hamas in the south.
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Therefore, the War Cabinet, which at this stage would prefer to concentrate on the southern arena and define Lebanon as a secondary arena, will very soon have to decide on ways to change the security reality in the north as well. In this area there are three options: either the campaign will remain limited (the IDF has so far killed more than 50 Hezbollah terrorists), or the IDF will surprise with a broad attack on Hezbollah formations – or Hezbollah will expand the campaign itself and move on to war. The IDF is preparing for all scenarios, including the option of eliminating most of Hezbollah's high-trajectory and missile missile capabilities.
IDF reserve forces on the northern border, this week/Reuters
The final dilemma concerns Iran, the leader of the axis of evil. The one that spreads a virulent and extremist ideology and uses a lot of money to promote barbaric terrorism against Israel from a large number of arenas in the Middle East.
The war cabinet will have to ask whether it is right to attack targets in Iran in order to exact a price and deter it – as the head of Mossad threatened the Islamic Republic a few months ago – or make do with action in the two main arenas: Gaza and Lebanon. The source of concern is a scenario in which, while Israel is busy defending both arenas and dividing its regular and reserve forces, Tehran can order increased uranium enrichment to the point of secretly assembling a bomb. Accordingly, all of Israel's options should be on the table.
At the time of writing, the IDF is attacking Lebanon and Gaza simultaneously, but the critical moment will come when the ground maneuver begins. According to its threats, Iran may order its proxies in the various arenas to attack the IDF, as well as US soldiers in the Middle East.
- More on the subject:
- Hamas
- Hezbollah
- Iran
- Gaza War
- Iron Sword War