"Just because it's old doesn't mean it's obsolete." With these words pronounced in Egypt on Wednesday, the day after a visit to Israel and then to the West Bank, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed the position of France, in favor of a revival of the peace process in Israel and Palestine. The aim is to establish two independent, sovereign and secure states.
"The resumption of talks is more necessary than ever," he insisted, as a new war broke out between Israel and Hamas after the deadly incursion of the Palestinian Islamist group on October 7, which left more than 1,400 dead, the majority of them civilians.
The French head of state hammered it home to Benjamin Netanyahu and then Mahmoud Abbas: Israel must accept "the legitimate right of the Palestinians to have a territory and a state", and, at the same time, the Jewish state must see "the importance of its existence and its security" confirmed.
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What would the two states look like?
Of course, everything will depend on the conditions of the negotiations. But, as David Khalfa, co-director of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation's Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East, reminds us, the most advanced discussions on the subject took place in the 2000s.
At the time, it was a question of relying on the 1967 borders, with the so-called "Land for Peace" formula, which consists of a demilitarization of the future Palestinian state, which would extend over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. At the same time, the Israeli settlement blocs adjacent to the Green Line (the demarcation) in the West Bank will be maintained in exchange for the handover of part of Israeli territory.
What are the obstacles?
In the current situation, there are many of them. First, there is the question of interlocutors on the Palestinian side. Hamas, considered a terrorist group by many countries and responsible for the bloody attack of October 7, is effectively excluded from possible talks, "since it wants a single Islamic state instead of Israel," Khalfa said. The problem is that he seized power in the Gaza Strip in 2007 and hasn't let it go since. Its disappearance, or at least its military, financial and ideological weakening, is therefore the very first obstacle to be removed.
The other difficulty, which stems from the political situation in the enclave, is the lack of credibility of the Palestinian Authority. Mahmoud Abbas only has control over the West Bank, "and even then, part of it is out of his hands," the specialist comments. The election that made him president dates back to 2005, the 2021 election having been postponed indefinitely, and he is accused of corruption by part of the population. Moreover, the 87-year-old Palestinian president has not named a successor, which suggests the risk of an outpouring of violence when it comes to taking over from him, points out David Khalfa.
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Another obstacle stems from Israeli policy: the alliance formed between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far right is "anti-Palestinian and anti-Arab. It is opposed, in principle, to the two-state solution," the Middle East specialist continues.
What will be the steps?
Only when the main obstacles — the presence of Hamas, the lack of a single governance for the Palestinian territories and an Israeli government opposed to the idea of a Palestinian state — have been removed will real discussions be possible.
They will most certainly take place under the aegis of the United States, some European countries and the Gulf countries. In Khalfa's view, the normalization process between Saudi Arabia and Israel - paused but not abandoned - could "serve as a launching pad" for further negotiations.
It will also require a change in the vision of an entire generation of Gazans, who have been subjected to Hamas propaganda for more than 15 years. "These young people grew up with no hope of a Palestinian state and no diplomatic horizon," he said. "It's a process that will take time. That doesn't mean you shouldn't do it." On the side of both Palestinians and Israelis, "there is a whole peace education to be done. We must stop demonizing both sides," he said.
Who are the supporters and opponents?
Supporters of the two-state solution are numerous – more than 130 of the 193 members of the United Nations already recognize Palestine as such. While Emmanuel Macron has been particularly vocal on the subject in recent days, he is far from being the only one convinced. The United States, European countries and most of the Gulf countries share this vision. According to David Khalfa, they could, as soon as the current war between Israel and Hamas is over, try to "create the conditions to chart a horizon in this direction."
Opponents of this idea are not that numerous. But they are still influential. On the one hand, there is the right-wing and far-right coalition in power in Israel. On the other hand, Iran, whose regime has "an anti-Israeli, anti-Jewish and anti-Western ideological agenda," the specialist analyzes. And, with this country, a whole network of pro-Iranian militias in the Levant, such as Hezbollah.