The turning point of the conflict? The powerful leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, is due to speak on Friday for the first time since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. He is expected to indicate whether his party, allied with the Palestinian Hamas and backed by Iran, will enter the conflict head-on. The speech is scheduled for 15 p.m. local time (14 p.m. in Paris) at a ceremony honoring the "martyrs" of the powerful pro-Iranian party who have fallen since October 7. It is awaited with apprehension not only in Lebanon, but also in the region.
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Hezbollah announced its solidarity with its Palestinian ally since the bloody attack carried out on October 7 by Hamas and claimed regular fire against Israeli military positions in border areas. Clashes had generally remained limited, both geographically and in the type of objectives targeted. But on Thursday, Hezbollah stepped up its operations, announcing that it had simultaneously attacked "19 Israeli military positions and sites," prompting retaliatory strikes by the Israeli military that killed four Hezbollah ranks, according to the Shiite movement.
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Since October 7, armed clashes have killed 70 people in southern Lebanon, including 52 Hezbollah fighters and at least seven civilians, according to an AFP tally. Eight soldiers and one civilian were killed on the Israeli side, according to authorities.
On October 13, Hezbollah's second-in-command said the pro-Iranian party was "fully prepared" to intervene against Israel in due course. According to information from the Lebanese media L'Orient-Le Jour, it seems "unlikely" that the Hezbollah leader will announce "clearly the opening of an all-out war against Israel, but almost everything in his speech should look like a declaration of war."
Opinions divided
In 2006, there was a destructive war between Hezbollah and Israel. It had ravaged infrastructure and roads and killed more than 1,200 people on the Lebanese side, the majority of them civilians. On the Israeli side, 160 people were killed, mostly soldiers. A new war would be "devastating" for Lebanon, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on 22 October.
Since 2006, Hezbollah has strengthened its large military arsenal, which includes high-precision missiles, but has so far refrained from using them. "Each side is carefully measuring its actions and reactions, in order to avoid a situation that could spiral out of control and spread to the entire region," said Michael Young, an analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center.
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While waiting for Hassan Nasrallah's speech, the Lebanese are holding their breath and opinions are divided. "We are eagerly awaiting the speech (...) and we want him to declare war against the Israeli enemy and the Western countries that support him," said Ahed Madi, 43, a resident of a southern border village. A new war with Israel "would be the final blow for Lebanon" in the midst of an economic collapse, fears Rabih Awad, 41.
Hezbollah 'doesn't need anyone's permission'
According to analysts, the decision to go to war is in the hands of Iran, which has already sent messages to Israel and the United States through its allies in the "axis of resistance." Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility for drone and ballistic missile attacks on Israel, while pro-Iranian groups have attacked US bases in Iraq and Syria.
But for Amal Saad, a lecturer at Cardiff University and an expert on Hezbollah, this formation "is not subservient to Iran, it is an ally of Iran" and "does not need anyone's permission to intervene". According to her, two factors could push Hassan Nasrallah to declare war. If Israel "tries to decapitate Hamas and annihilate the movement in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah will not allow it," she said. Moreover, "an ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, transferring them to the (Egyptian) Sinai or elsewhere, is a red line for Hezbollah," she added.
In a message to Palestinian formations in Gaza issued by Hezbollah on Wednesday, its fighters said they had "your finger on the trigger with you... to support Al Aqsa Mosque and our oppressed brothers in Palestine."