Status: 05.11.2023, 16:33 PM
By: Foreign Policy
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With the transition from a pure air strike to one that involves the ground forces in Gaza, Israel will face new dilemmas.
- Challenge in Israel's Ground Strikes: Hamas Leaders Difficult to Find and Danger of Hostages Killing
- No Fuel in Gaza: Innocent People Die Because of Israel's Refusal
- War in Israel: Israel has fewer military assets and social and economic networks than Hamas
- This article is available in German for the first time – it was first published by Foreign Policy magazine on October 28, 2023.
Israel has entered a "new phase of war" against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Saturday. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have sent tanks and other ground troops into the Gaza Strip and kept them there while continuing their intense artillery attacks and aerial bombardments, but so far they have refrained from a full-scale ground invasion. It is not clear whether there will ever be an official D-Day for such an operation, but Israel is steadily expanding its ground operations in the Gaza Strip, carrying out attacks on the Strip and cutting off telecommunications there.
With the transition from an airstrike-only to an operation involving the ground forces, Israel faces many challenges and even more dilemmas, some of which involve risks to Israeli troops, while others involve broader strategic and humanitarian objectives. These challenges have already delayed a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip and could prompt the Israeli leadership to limit the scope and scale of military operations in other ways as well.
The challenge of Israel's ground attacks: Gaza as densely populated as London
A tank unit near Kibbutz Be'eri is waiting for its order to deploy. © AFP
The first challenge lies in the nature of the fights themselves. The Gaza Strip is built-up and densely populated, with a population per square kilometer comparable to that of London. In this tangle of narrow streets and densely packed buildings, many of the advantages of the Israeli military in terms of speed, communications, surveillance and long-range firepower are neutralized.
Instead, the IDF must divide its troops, which are then vulnerable to small groups of armed Hamas fighters. The debris caused by the Israeli bombardment provides an opportunity for small groups of fighters to hide from the Israeli troops, set up sniper positions and lay booby traps.
Hamas Prepares for War Against Israel: Tunnel Network Larger Than London Underground
The U.S. military has found the urban operations in Fallujah, Iraq, difficult and extremely destructive. The Gaza Strip is likely to be even more difficult. Unlike the Iraqi insurgents that the United States fought in Fallujah in 2004 and who only recently took control of the city, Hamas has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007 and has fought Israel several times since then. The group probably anticipated a harsh Israeli response to its October 7 attack, but even if it didn't, Hamas has long been preparing for an Israeli attack.
According to the United Nations and the Israel Defense Forces, Hamas has placed military supplies and facilities in civilian facilities such as schools. The group has also built a huge network of tunnels, believed to be larger than the London Underground. She can use these tunnels to hide supplies and leaders, and to ensure communication during a conflict.
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Israel's Attacks Target Hard-to-Find Hamas Leaders
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Tunnel fights are a nightmare. The former head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Joseph L. Votel, compared this to the Islamic State's use of a network of tunnels in Mosul, Iraq — which was only a fraction of the size of Hamas' tunnels — and warned, "It's going to be bloody, brutal fighting." Hamas fighters could use the tunnels to emerge behind Israeli troops, ambush them, or even kidnap more hostages. Israel has tried to bomb these tunnels, but they are difficult to find and destroy from the air.
Israel is trying to destroy Hamas, which in practice means killing its leaders. However, it turns out to be difficult to find them. They can hide in tunnels and mingle with the civilian population. Some will choose to fight, but the organization is well institutionalized and will no doubt seek to retain much of its leadership cadre, including key figures such as Hamas' military commander, Mohammed Deif.
Beware of fighting against Hamas: Israeli hostages in Gaza
Israel has successfully cracked down on Hamas and other leaders in the past, but this has been a slow process, and even an occupation of the northern Gaza Strip would mean that Israel would not control large parts of the Strip, allowing Hamas leaders to hide there. In addition, many of Hamas' senior political leaders do not even live in Gaza, but spend their days in much safer places in countries such as Qatar, Turkey and Lebanon.
To make matters worse, Hamas has taken more than 200 hostages, including many foreign nationals, including 54 Thai workers and about 10 Americans. At the very least, this will complicate the fighting: hostages could also be in a building where Hamas leaders are hiding, as well as in a tunnel where Hamas supplies are stored. Sending troops to attack these places, let alone simply blowing them up, could kill the hostages.
Bloody ground fighting: Nearly 7000,<> Palestinians dead in Israeli war
Hamas has also threatened to kill the hostages in response to Israeli attacks. As far as we know, she hasn't made good on that promise yet, but she might in the future. The more successful Israel's ground operations are against Hamas, the more likely it is that the organization will resort to desperate measures.
Israel must also consider the cost to the civilian population in Gaza. According to the Hamas-led Health Ministry, nearly 7,000 Palestinians have already been killed in Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip, and ground operations could be far bloodier. In the past, international outrage over civilian casualties eventually prompted Israel to suspend operations, but the extraordinarily high Israeli death toll from the October 7 Hamas attack may change that calculus. This concern will complicate the fight as Israel tries to balance civilian casualties with the risk to its troops, while also taking into account the likelihood that Hamas will mix fighters and military assets among civilians.
No Fuel in Gaza: Innocent People Die Because of Israel's Refusal
Outside of its immediate operations, Israel refuses to supply the Gaza Strip with fuel, electricity and other civilian goods on the grounds that Hamas will use them for military purposes. This has already led to a massive humanitarian crisis that will only get worse as the days go by. If Israel succumbs to pressure from the United States and the international community to provide basic supplies and ensure that food and medicine for civilians reach the Gaza Strip, it will find itself in the unusual position of providing aid and waging war in the same area. Failing this, however, the already high death toll from war will skyrocket, with children, the elderly and other non-combatants dying innocently.
Although Israel's own strategic interests and the desire of the Israeli leadership to calm the shocked and angry public will be the most important factors for military operations, the Israeli leadership must also take into account international and, in particular, US opinion. Many Arab leaders secretly loathe Hamas and would be happy if Israel destroyed it.
After Israel attacks: Many countries condemn actions in Gaza
Their public, however, is pleased that Israel has been hit hard and outraged by the destruction that Israel is raining down on the Gaza Strip. The Israeli operations have led to protests throughout the Arab world, including in countries such as Bahrain and Egypt, which have normalized their relations with Israel. This normalization is an important diplomatic goal for Israel, which it will not jeopardize lightly. Even Saudi Arabia, which until the outbreak of the war was in intensive negotiations with the United States to normalize relations with Israel, has condemned Israel's actions in Gaza in increasingly harsh statements.
Even more important is the opinion of the United States. President Joe Biden and his administration have publicly embraced Israel, but privately they seem to be advising restraint. In addition to seeking to limit the human cost on the Palestinian side, officials in Washington are concerned about the risk to American hostages and the danger that the conflict will spread to the entire region, threatening U.S. forces and allies. As these fears grow, U.S. pressure on Israel to curb its operations may grow.
War in Gaza: Hezbollah and Houthis threaten to interfere
The U.S. fears are well-founded, because it is possible that this war will spread from Israel and the Gaza Strip to large parts of the Middle East. Already, Hezbollah has threatened to join the fight and intensify its attacks on Israel from Lebanon, unrest is growing in the West Bank, Yemen's Houthis have fired missiles at Israel, and U.S. bases in the Middle East have been attacked by Iranian proxies, prompting the United States to attack Iranian-linked facilities in Syria. A broader war involving Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups would pose a serious threat to Israel, increase the risk of international terrorism, and affect many U.S. interests.
Israel will face even more fundamental challenges if it wants to end military operations. One difficulty in uprooting Hamas is the question of who – or what – would take its place. The Palestinian Authority is barely holding out in the West Bank, and it would damage its already weak credibility among the Palestinians if it were to cooperate with Israel in administering the Gaza Strip after an invasion. Egypt and other Arab states are reluctant to accept Palestinian refugees, let alone take on the difficult task of administering the Gaza Strip.
According to polls: Hamas more popular than Israel in the war
But if Israel simply strikes hard and pulls out, Hamas will prevail again without anyone being able to challenge its control. Polls show that Hamas is not popular, but they also show that its Palestinian rivals are even more unpopular – and they lack the military means and social and economic networks that Hamas has in Gaza.
Anger in Israel is scorching hot, calling for the destruction of Hamas, but the Israeli leadership knows that operations are risky and could easily prove counterproductive. The risk of further Israeli casualties and other concerns are likely to prompt some in the Israeli government, perhaps including the prime minister himself, to adopt a cautious stance.
The end result could include some ground operations, but it is likely that the overall approach will be more cautious than in the case of an all-out invasion and long-term occupation that seemed likely in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attacks. Such an approach would not destroy Hamas and still lead to Israeli casualties and far more suffering on the Palestinian side, but it would allow the Israeli leadership to minimize many of the most difficult dilemmas it faces in Gaza.
About the author
Daniel Byman is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. His latest book is Spreading Hate: The Global Rise of White Supremacist Terrorism. Twitter (X): @dbyman
We are currently testing machine translations. This article has been automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English in the magazine "ForeignPolicy.com" on October 2, 2023 - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of IPPEN. MEDIA portals.