In Madrid
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In my mind, the dignity of the office of Prime Minister is not compatible with any suspicion of his integrity, his good conduct, let alone a suspicion of a criminal act. That is why, in these circumstances, I have obviously submitted my resignation to His Excellency, the President of the Republic." With these words spoken on Tuesday evening, the head of the Portuguese government, the socialist Antonio Costa, drew all the consequences of the investigation opened by the Public Prosecutor's Office against him and his entourage, accused of corruption.
The president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a representative of the centre-right (Social Democratic Party, PSD), known for his political independence, will have to decide on Thursday between two options: appoint a new prime minister capable of winning the confidence of Parliament, where the PS has a majority; or, more likely, dissolve the Assembly to call early elections. "It's a complete surprise," said Antonio Costa Pinto, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon's Institute of Social Sciences. It's a shock to society. For the first time in the history of Portuguese democracy, a sitting prime minister is the subject of a judicial investigation and is likely to be tried by the Supreme Court, the only one empowered to initiate such proceedings."
The Public Prosecutor's Office first informed of the opening of an investigation against relatives of the head of the executive. In four industrial projects linked to a data storage centre, lithium mines and a hydrogen plant, the judiciary suspects influence peddling and corruption of politicians linked to the Costa government, including his chief of staff, but also a former adviser and personal friend. The Public Prosecutor's Office said in a statement: "During the investigations, it also emerged that suspects invoked the name and authority of the prime minister and that he intervened to unblock proceedings. These references will be independently analysed as part of the investigation launched by the Supreme Court."
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"You can throw away all the polls"
Costa, in his speech announcing his departure, said, "eye to eye of the Portuguese, that the commission of any unlawful act does not weigh on (his) conscience." Nevertheless, "he had no other option than to resign," says Costa Pinto. All observers are of the opinion that it is more his entourage than himself who is the culprit. But it's very difficult to think that the judiciary is moving forward without solid evidence."
For the first time in the history of Portuguese democracy, a sitting prime minister is the target of a judicial investigation and is likely to be judged by the Supreme Court, the only one empowered to initiate this procedure
Antonio Costa Pinto, Political Scientist at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon
Costa left his mark on Portuguese political history with almost eight years in office. The first Socialist leader to successfully negotiate the support of forces to the left of the PS, he also managed to get rid of his cumbersome allies by obtaining an absolute majority in 2022. "He has also taken away the right's monopoly on balanced budgets and good economic management," adds the political scientist, "to the point of presenting a surplus budget for 2024. In doing so, he has avoided the usual criticism that the left is leading the country to bankruptcy."
It remains to be seen who will replace him. In the probable event of early elections, the right-wing opposition, led by the PSD, has the advantage of being in battle order, under the rule of its president for the past eighteen months, Luis Montenegro. In the Socialist Party, on the other hand, there are fears that the elections will take place too soon to consolidate the ascendancy of a leader, for example the former infrastructure minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, who is considered to represent the left wing and who is seen as the favourite. "In any case," Costa Pinto warns, "you can throw away all the polls published until Tuesday, they are worthless." Stunned by an unexpected political crisis, the Portuguese sail by sight.