Kim Jong-un's trip to Russia in mid-September may well continue to bear fruit, as Moscow relies on its heavily militarized Communist ally to bolster its ammunition stockpiles and win the long war of attrition it is waging in Ukraine against Kyiv. While there is now little doubt that Pyongyang has already delivered artillery shells and rockets to Russian forces since late summer, South Koreans are now worried about even more substantial deliveries.
To discover
- Follow the news on the war in Ukraine with the Le Figaro app
South Korea's military has "detected emerging signs" from "various sources" of North Korea's "ongoing deliveries of short-range ballistic missiles" to Russia, an unnamed South Korean military official told The Korea Herald after a closed-door briefing on the arms trade and military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Deep Attacks
«
We are monitoring [their] potential transport by train and plane," the source told the English-language daily, citing "logistical challenges" for transhipments by ship, as the ballistic missiles in question exceed the size of the 6-metre-long and 2.5-metre-wide shipping containers used by the North Koreans and Russians. For example, a KN-23 missile is 9 meters long.
It is one of three types of ballistic missiles suspected by the South Koreans of being delivered to Russia. Commissioned in 2018, quite similar in design to the Russian Iskander missiles, fired in large numbers in Ukraine since the invasion of February 24, 2022, the KN-23 (officially called Hwasong-11Ga) carries a payload of 500 kilograms and offers a range of 450 to 600 kilometers, depending on the version.
Another short-range ballistic missile, the KN-24, entered service in 2019. The Hwasongpho-11Na, with a small size of 7 meters long, carries a payload of 400 kilograms and can reach a target at 400 kilometers.
Finally, the third weapon mentioned is the KN-25, a ballistic missile smaller than the previous two and categorized by the North Koreans as "very large caliber multiple rocket launchers" in that each eight-wheel drive launcher can fire four to six missiles.
Read alsoDrone attacks: Russians build "Flaktürme" to protect Moscow
These possible deliveries are to be seen in parallel with the announcement, in the autumn, of the supply by the United States of a reduced number - probably a few dozen - of ATACMS short-range ballistic missiles, fired by the HIMARS rocket launchers previously transmitted to Kiev. These new weapons, which can reach more than 150 kilometers, allow the Ukrainians to hit Russian logistics more deeply than with guided artillery shells, which do not exceed 80.
With its Iskander (land-based), Kalibr (naval), Khinzal (airborne), Kh-101 (airborne), Kh-55 (airborne) missiles, its FAB-500 and FAB-1500 glide bombs, not to mention its Iranian Shahed-136 long-range drones, Moscow has already had the possibility of striking the Ukrainian system in depth since the beginning of the conflict. And even the entire 600,000 km2 of Ukraine's territory, since a Kalibr cruise missile, for example, carries more than 2000,<> kilometers.
But Moscow has drawn heavily on its own stockpiles of missiles, which, while not exhausted, are not infinite. While Russia's war economy has allowed Moscow to increase production rates - now estimated at more than 100 missiles per month - Russia could welcome the addition of new weapons, especially in the run-up to strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the winter, as it did last year.
While Ukraine is now receiving Western missiles – in addition to US ATACMS, Kiev also has French Scalp and British Storm Shadow – a stockpile of North Korean missiles would allow Moscow to maintain escalation with Ukrainian forces. These deliveries would also accentuate the Russian discourse on the "fatigue" of the West vis-à-vis its support for Ukraine in the face of a Russia that is "rearming".
Up to one million shells
In addition to these short-range ballistic missiles, The Herald Korea also confirms that Pyongyang is delivering 152mm artillery shells and 122mm shells for Russian Grad multiple rocket launchers to Moscow. "It is estimated that to date, about 2000,122 containers have been shipped to Russia via the port of Rajin in northeastern North Korea," a key maritime crossing point between the two countries, the South Korean military said, estimating that deliveries began in August. "Assuming these containers are loaded with 200mm multiple rocket launcher shells, the estimate exceeds 000,152 rounds of ammunition. If these containers are loaded with 1mm shells for artillery, the estimate exceeds <> million rounds of ammunition," he said.
Russia, which before the war had vast stocks dating back to Soviet times, is on track to produce two million shells a year - more than European and American production combined - according to the New York Times, but, at the same time, it has spent nearly 10 million in just one year. Here again, North Korean aid appears to be precious to Moscow.
The South Korean English-language daily also mentions the shipment of ammunition for T-55 and T-62 tanks, which would hardly be surprising. These ancient tanks - the figure corresponds to the year they were first put into service... - had been removed from the Russian arsenal for several years and even from equipment placed in reserve, but they finally reappeared on the battlefield to compensate for the strong attrition of the Russians in terms of tanks. According to the Oryx website, which lists visually identified losses of military equipment during the conflict, 2475,55 Russian tanks have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured. The older T-62 and T-105 have specific calibers - 115 and <> mm guns respectively - which could justify the import of North Korean ammunition, as Pyongyang still has a large number of these tanks in its army.
Read alsoNorth Korea fires a missile intended to be launched from a submarine
But how far could the hermit kingdom's aid to its Russian ally stop? According to the South Korean military, other weapons such as "multiple rocket launchers, field artillery, rifles, machine guns, and portable anti-aircraft or anti-tank missiles" could end up on the Ukrainian battlefield in the future. "Containers are popping up in almost every part of North Korea," the unnamed source told the Korea Herald, calling the situation "unusual."
U.S. 'deep concerns'
The United States is alarmed by this military windfall that Moscow has been enjoying for months, at a time when, on the contrary, the Ukrainian Chief of Staff, General Zaluzhny, has himself been forced to acknowledge the failure of the counteroffensive launched this summer. In the United States, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is threatening to block any further aid to Ukraine, while popular support for Kiev is waning across the Atlantic, poll after poll.
«
We share deep concerns about North Korea's growing and dangerous military cooperation with Russia," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday at a press conference with his South Korean counterpart, Park Jin, at the end of a visit to Seoul. After the Russians used Iranian drones in Ukraine in 2022, the firing of North Korean missiles in Eastern Europe would further fuel this "deep fear" of the Western camp.