Status: 09.11.2023, 10:53 a.m.
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A house bombed in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on Tuesday. © Loay Ayyoub/The Washington Post
While the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza is ongoing, there is still no clear goal for the post-war period. Opinions differ.
Jerusalem – Who will rule the Gaza Strip when this terrible war is over? After a month of fighting, no one can give a clear answer. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suddenly announced in an interview with ABC News on Monday that Israel would be responsible for the overall security of the Gaza Strip "indefinitely" after the end of the conflict.
To many, this sounded like a return to an occupation of the Gaza Strip that Washington and Israel's other Western partners have repeatedly warned against. Just a week ago, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced the opposite message – he said that "eliminating Israel's responsibility for life in the Gaza Strip" was a core goal of the campaign.
The Biden administration, meanwhile, has hinted that the weakened Palestinian Authority could play a leading role in Gaza after the war. The confusion over the post-war scenarios is contributing to a human catastrophe and deepening anger in the Gaza Strip, where people say they have no say in their future.
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War in the Gaza Strip: Who will rule the territory after the end of the conflict?
After a month, more than 10,000 Palestinians have already been killed, including many women and children, according to the Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip. Gaza City is surrounded by Israeli tanks, artillery and troops and is still in the early stages of a long and tough urban battle with Hamas.
More than 7,1 Israelis were killed in Hamas' surprise attack on Israel on October 400, the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. At least 34 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the Gaza Strip, surpassing the number of casualties of previous wars.
Experts warn that the Gaza Strip is turning into a toxic dump of weapons and debris. More than 1 million people have been displaced. Tens of thousands are cowering in hospital courtyards and closed schools of the United Nations. Entire districts were destroyed.
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An Israeli attack on Beit Hanoun in Gaza on Monday. © : Heidi Levine/The Washington Post
Closure of Gaza after the end of the war in Israel: No clear answer so far
Whatever the outcome, it will be one of the largest reconstruction projects ever undertaken. But Israel and its allies do not have a unified vision of who should administer the enclave after the war.
During a brief visit to Ramallah in the West Bank on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, a senior State Department official told The Washington Post.
The head of the Palestinian Authority insisted that his government would return to the Gaza Strip only as part of a "comprehensive solution," according to his advisers — which means promoting Palestinian rights and statehood. The idea that the 87-year-old Abbas, his Fatah party and the Palestinian Authority, which administers part of the West Bank, would administer the Gaza Strip provoked immediate reactions.
Palestinian Authority in Gaza? "Not even able to govern the West Bank"
What is the two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians?
Impossible, many said. It will never happen. The leadership of the Palestinian Authority is too old, too corrupt and too unpopular, analysts say, and is just clinging to power in Ramallah. Tahani Mustafa, an expert on Palestinian issues at the International Crisis Group, called the idea that the authority could administer the Gaza Strip "funny." "Abbas is not even capable of governing the West Bank, let alone Gaza," she said.
The Israelis have been remarkably quiet about the future role of the authority. They and the Israeli settler movement in the West Bank are benefiting from Palestinian disunity. But the central question remains: Who, if not Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, will take over the presidency of a shattered and traumatized Gaza Strip?
Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, but the group's political leaders are already thinking about the future. "We again warn against relying on Israeli promises to determine the form of government in the Gaza Strip," said Raafat Murra, a member of Hamas' political leadership in Lebanon. Murra said it was not Hamas that was in crisis, but Netanyahu and his government.
"Our Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip, after all the sacrifices, will not accept any new rule or a new government that replaces the occupation and achieves the goals that the occupation could not achieve," Murra said, without referring specifically to Hamas' archrivals, Abbas and Fatah.
The Palestinian people are rarely consulted on these matters – neither by outsiders nor by their own leaders. Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in the Gaza Strip have been in power for years and have always had an excuse not to hold elections. Both fear they will lose.
"Hamas is crazy, Fatah is corrupt": Deep mistrust among Palestinians
Amid intense airstrikes and an Israeli ground offensive, the people of Gaza say they just want to see tomorrow.
They have been through many wars and reconstruction processes. And they have an opinion. "Hamas is crazy, and Fatah is corrupt," says Ayman Shrafi, 43, who works for a local aid organization in the Jabalya refugee camp, which is now on the front lines of the Israeli attack. "Hamas looks after its own interests, and so does Fatah."
"We in Gaza are not the decision-makers," he said. He fears that the population of the Gaza Strip will be "severely exploited" as a result of the war. Ghadeer Rafiq, 32, is an Arabic teacher in Beit Lahia, north of Gaza City. She said, "The war may end, Fatah or others may return, or Hamas may stay, but I am not sure I will survive."
Rafiq said she was not happy under Hamas. "I hope that Fatah will return to the Gaza Strip, but I do not wish for the destruction of the Gaza Strip, because if Fatah returns, there will be no place for them to govern," she said.
Ahmed al-Bash, 26, studied accounting, but like most Gazans, he doesn't have a steady job. He lives in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the south of the country. "The return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza is impossible," he said. "I don't think the Palestinian people will accept the return of the corrupt authority to Gaza on the back of an Israeli tank.
Hamas' infrastructure is being bombed and its leaders are being killed, "but Hamas remains and is getting stronger and stronger," he said, because the movement "stands for ideas." He warned outsiders: "The most important factor in the question of who will govern in Gaza is the decision of the Palestinian people, not the decision of foreign countries."
Hanan Ashrawi, a prominent Palestinian leader in the West Bank, said that the Palestinian Authority would theoretically return to the Gaza Strip only as part of a broader peace treaty that would ensure Palestinian statehood. She said no Palestinian group would want to administer the Gaza Strip "on the back of an Israeli attack."
War in Israel: Palestinian Authority "not a credible actor"
Zaha Hassan, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Institute for Peace who has been involved on the American side in previous peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, said, "It is hard to imagine how the Palestinian Authority can practically take over the administration of the Gaza Strip in the face of the enormous challenge and all the destruction that Israel has caused."
She said the authority was weak – "on its last legs" – and "not a credible actor among the Palestinians." It may have a chance to restore its credibility if it is able to end the occupation and restore the national bodies to truly represent the people."
But "Israel does not want the PA to take over the administration of the Gaza Strip," she said, and Washington is unlikely to exert too much pressure.
The Biden administration "has so far been unwilling to devote political capital to resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, so I'm not very confident that it will put pressure on Israel now," she said. "It is not even able to get Israel to agree to a humanitarian pause."
Should Israel return to reoccupying the Gaza Strip despite President Biden's objections, Washington should "show humility in giving Israel advice for the next few days," Aaron David Miller, another former U.S. peace negotiator, wrote on X on Tuesday.
President Barack "Obama's withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 and Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 do not inspire confidence," he wrote. "Israel's stay in Gaza could be a disaster for both Israel and the US.
Balousha reported from Cairo. Miriam Berger in Jerusalem and Michael Birnbaum and Loveday Morris in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.
About the author
William Booth is the head of the Washington Post's London bureau, having previously served as bureau chief in Jerusalem, Mexico City, Los Angeles and Miami.
We are currently testing machine translations. This article has been automatically translated from English into German.
This article was first published in English by the "Washingtonpost.com" on November 07, 2023 - in the course of a cooperation, it is now also available in translation to the readers of IPPEN. MEDIA portals.