The PP would win a general election with 33.9% of the vote, followed by the PSOE with 31.3%, according to the November CIS

The People's Party would win the general election if it were held today, according to the November barometer of the Center for Sociological Research, made public on Friday. The party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo achieved 33.9% of the vote, 1.7 points more than last month. It would be followed by the PSOE, which is finalising the pacts to try to investiture Pedro Sánchez as President of the Government, with 31.3% of the support, and which is down 1.3 points. Sumar and Vox occupy the third and fourth positions in the voters' preference. The party led by Yolanda Díaz, and a partner of the PSOE, fell to 11.8% of the support, almost one point less, and Santiago Abascal's party remained at a similar result to the previous month, 10%. The Catalan pro-independence formations ERC and Junts, which have achieved great prominence in the negotiation of a future government of PSOE and Sumar, would obtain very similar results to last month, 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively, in the total vote of the whole of Spain. For the first time, Feijóo surpasses Sánchez and Díaz in the citizen rating, although neither of them achieves the pass.

This is the second barometer published by the CIS in which Pedro Sánchez is the candidate for the investiture and in which the amnesty for those accused of the independence process occupies the political debate. In October, the poll by the centre chaired by José Félix Tezanos gave a tie to the PP and the PSOE, although the Socialists were already down almost one point. In November, the PP achieved a lead over the PSOE of 2.6 points. When adding up the supports, the block on the right is almost one point ahead of the one on the left (0.8). In October, the difference was three points in favor of the left. According to November data, the PP (33.9%) and Vox (10%) would gather 43.9% of the votes, compared to 43.1% for PSOE (31.3%) and Sumar (11.8%).

The poll was made public on the day that the Socialists formalised the pact to achieve the support of the PNV and the Canary Islands Coalition, so that the Socialists have already accumulated the commitment of 179 of the 350 deputies in Congress, enough for Sánchez to achieve the investiture in the first vote in Congress. The poll does not include any questions about the pacts that the PSOE is reaching with the Catalan separatists on an amnesty for the leaders of the October 2017 secession attempt.

The fieldwork was carried out between October 31 and November 6, as reported by the CIS. Its 4,009 interviews began on the day that Princess Leonor swore the oath of the Constitution in Congress and continued, already on November 87, with Sánchez's pact with Catalan President Pere Aragonès of the amnesty law, a movement with which ERC pledged to support the investiture of the socialist candidate. In the days that followed, Spanish politics was attentive to the negotiations with Junts and the results of the parties' consultations with their bases. Those of the PSOE ratified the agreement with Sumar and the independence movement with 96% support. Those of Podemos backed a reinforcement of their autonomy against Sumar with <>% of the votes.

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Pacts and negotiations for Sánchez's investiture

In terms of political leaders, Pedro Sánchez continues to be the preferred candidate to occupy the Presidency of the Government, with 27.7% support, compared to 21% who would like the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, to occupy La Moncloa. 6.6% of those surveyed prefer Yolanda Díaz, head of Sumar's list, and 5.6% point to the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal. However, Feijóo has surpassed Sánchez for the first time in the grade given to him by the citizens. Thus, the leader of the PP ranks obtains an average score of 4.45 out of 10, compared to 4.31 for the socialist. Diaz, until now the best scored by the citizens, drops to third position, with a 4.29. Abascal is in fourth place, with a 3.03.

The November barometer of 40dB. for EL PAÍS and SER, published this Monday, detects a loss of steam of the socialists against the PP since 23-J. Despite this improvement by Núñez Feijóo's party, the poll – whose internal data can be consulted on the websites of both media outlets – suggests that the right wing as a whole would still not reach an absolute majority in Congress, due to Vox's bad moment.

Against the time change

The November CIS survey also asks about other issues, such as the time change, the latest wars or health care. Regarding the need to put an end to the clocks being delayed or advanced twice a year, 65.8% say that they would like to put an end to the time change and 22.5% want to continue as before, changing the clock in autumn and spring. In the event that any were to be maintained, 68.5% chose the summer one, compared to 21.5% who would prefer the winter one.

Some 78.5% of those surveyed said they were very or fairly concerned about "the war in the Middle East", the latest escalation of which began on 7 October, while 9.3% said they were little or not at all concerned. The level of concern about this conflict is somewhat higher than about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022 and about which 71.8% said they were very or quite worried. Respondents are little or not at all concerned about this latest conflict at 23.2%.

With regard to other issues, such as health care, the vast majority, 89.1%, say that the budget for health care expenditure should be increased and 54.4% prefer that the competence over health remain in the hands of the autonomous communities, compared to 32.2% who prefer it to be exercised by the central government.

The survey once again reflects the gap between citizens' views on the country's economic situation and their own. While 59.7% believe that their personal economic situation is very good or good, 64.2% believe that the general economic situation in Spain is bad or very bad.

Economic issues and health, in fact, are the main concerns of citizens. When asked what Spain's main problem is, 22.9% spontaneously answered that it was unemployment, while 22.8% answered that it was the economic crisis. In third place (19.9%) is healthcare. Right after that are "political problems in general" (18.6%). But the problem that has risen the most positions, to the point of becoming the fifth concern of citizens, is immigration, which coincides with the worsening of the migratory crisis in the Canary Islands. If you ask which one affects the respondents the most, they establish this order: the crisis, health, unemployment, the quality of employment, education, political problems, climate change, housing...

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