Biden will ask Xi on Wednesday for China to pressure Iran to avoid escalation in Gaza war

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet next Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay Area. The official announcement on Friday by the White House and Zhongnanhai confirms the long-awaited meeting between the leaders of the world's two largest economies, the first between the two in a year and the result of a delicate diplomatic ballet of high-ranking visits that has lasted months. Their meeting seeks to stabilize the complicated bilateral relationship between rivals who need each other, at a time of strong turbulence on the world chessboard.

The crisis in the Middle East will come to the fore at the meeting. China, which is trying to present itself as a leader of the global south, has been one of the first countries to call for a ceasefire, although it tries not to align itself — or antagonize — one side or the other. According to senior U.S. officials, who spoke to reporters about the meeting on condition of anonymity, Biden is likely to ask Xi for China to exert its influence over Iran to make it clear that it should not take steps that could widen the conflict. "If Iran takes provocative action, the U.S. is prepared to respond and to do so quickly," the U.S. source added.

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It will be only the second time the two presidents have met face-to-face since Biden's arrival in the White House nearly three years ago. In the first, held in November last year in Bali, Indonesia, during the G-20 summit, the two agreed to halt the free fall in which the world's most important bilateral ties had entered since Donald Trump's term. This time, according to the White House, it's mostly about keeping the lines of communication open and managing mutual rivalry responsibly.

The timing of the meeting is key for both of you. A year before the U.S. elections, Biden is going through very low hours in his popularity, while the wars in Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas threaten to mark his presidency. In Beijing, Xi is grappling with a slumping economy, China's weakest in 30 years. Elections are also looming in January in Taiwan, the self-ruled island with a democratic system that China considers part of its territory. It is not in the interest of either leader to escalate tensions between their respective countries.

Absence of big announcements

It does not seem, at first glance, that there will be much progress in the relationship, nor that there will be any ambitious announcements. The days when both countries boasted of pacts and memorandums of understanding at every meeting — though those agreements often fell to screech — is over. Now, the fact that the two presidents are meeting face-to-face is already a step forward.

"The leaders will address issues of interest in their bilateral relationship, the importance of strengthening open lines of communication and responsible management of the competition, as well as a range of regional, global and national issues," the U.S. officials said.

Taiwan, the main source of friction between the two countries and the absolute priority of Chinese foreign policy, will figure prominently in this range of issues. Beijing opposes the government in Taipei declaring independence and is closely monitoring what happens in the January elections. After two terms of President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party, in which cross-strait ties have become increasingly strained, Xi prefers a victory for the conservative Kuomintang, which is more open to Beijing. The Chinese president will want to hear from his counterpart the official U.S. position of not supporting a hypothetical Taiwanese independence and, perhaps, also a statement that he does not have a preferred candidate in the January elections.

The U.S. president will also ask China for measures to control the flow of fentanyl chemicals leaving its territory and fueling an epidemic that causes tens of thousands of deaths in the United States, mostly among young people.

The two leaders will also address global issues of common concern, such as the fight against climate change, following the successful conclusion of a round of talks between their respective envoys for this crisis, John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua, this week in California.

According to senior U.S. officials, Biden will also discuss with his Chinese counterpart the importance of resuming talks between their respective militaries, suspended by Beijing after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan in August 2022.

Washington insists on the need to establish military-to-military lines of communication, to prevent any incident from unintentionally triggering a serious crisis. The two forces have frequent friction in the vicinity of Taiwan and in the South China Sea, of which Beijing claims sovereignty over most of its waters, while the United States conducts regular patrols in defense of freedom of navigation.

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