Morena has put an end to the mystery about who will be its candidate in the capital. Andrés Manuel López Obrador's movement announced Friday that Clara Brugada, former mayor of Iztapalapa, is the person chosen to compete for the head of government of Mexico City in next year's elections. On the road to the nomination has been Omar García Harfuch, former secretary of the capital's Secretary of Security, who, although he won by 14 points in the poll conducted by the party in the capital, was withdrawn from the race due to the criterion of gender parity, which favored Brugada. The question now arises as to what position Harfuch will take in the face of defeat. Its possibilities are closed to two options: unity or rupture. The former police chief's entourage assures that he will abide by the party's decision and support Brugada. Morena has also assigned this Friday the candidacies of the other eight states that will have gubernatorial elections in 2024. The party thus ends weeks of speculation and tense internal negotiations marked by the obligations of parity in the distribution of candidates, with an agonizing day in which the results of the internal polls were released in dribs and drabs.
Clara Brugada celebrates the candidacy with Rocío Nahle at the end of the day. Nayeli Cruz
Only two women have definitively prevailed in the polls of the nine states that elect governorships in 2024: Rocío Nahle, former Secretary of Energy, in Veracruz, and Margarita González, former head of the National Lottery, in Morelos. To comply with the INE's order to nominate at least five women, Morena has opted for Brugada in Mexico City, Alma Alcaraz in Guanajuato and Claudia Delgadillo in Jalisco. The men elected were Javier May (Tabasco), Alejandro Armenta (Puebla), Eduardo Ramírez (Chiapas) and Huacho Díaz (Yucatán). In the case of the capital, the decision meant overlooking the fact that Harfuch had the highest scores not only in voting intentions, but also in aspects such as honesty, knowledge of the city, closeness to the people and identification with the party's values, according to the responses collected by the polls. The former chief of the capital's police obtained 40.5% of the preferences over 26.7% for Brugada.
The leadership of Morena summoned this Friday in groups to the aspirants in each state to present the studies, and at the end of each meeting they went out to make them public to the media. In all cases, it was announced who was the most competitive man and woman in each state, with the clarification, especially for men, that having won the poll did not mean that the candidacy would be automatic, since the gender parity criterion had yet to be applied to ensure that at least five women would be nominated for governorship. If a woman won the poll in her state, she automatically became a candidate, as happened in Veracruz and Morelos.
Omar García Harfuch receives applause during the announcement of candidates. Nayeli Cruz
The decisive question to win the poll was who people preferred as a candidate. In some states, the difference between first and second place was very noticeable. In Yucatan, delegate Joaquín Díaz was 31 points ahead of Senator Verónica Camino, the best-positioned woman. In Tabasco, former director of the Mayan Train Javier May had 36 points more than Mayor Yolanda Osuna. In the remaining states, the gap between the leaders was narrower. In Puebla, Senator Alejandro Armenta took an advantage within the margin of error over Deputy Ignacio Mier and left Claudia Rivera, former mayor of the capital of Puebla, in third place. Veracruz was also one of the most surprising states, with only one point separating Nahle and state leader Manuel Huerta. In Jalisco, Lomelí was five points ahead of federal deputy Claudia Delgadillo. In Guanajuato, Sheffield won first place by just one point over local MP Alma Alcaraz. And in the case of Chiapas, the poll was won by Senator Eduardo Ramírez with less than two points over Senator Sasil de León.
The long (and bumpy) road to candidacies
The results of the internal polls were to be announced on October 30, but tensions caused Mario Delgado's leadership to postpone the decision until November 10, five days after the formal start of the pre-campaign period in the capital. The decision between García Harfuch, former police chief of the capital and leader in most published polls, and Brugada, former mayor of Iztapalapa and the best-positioned woman in the race, posed a dilemma for Morena and brought to light internal differences over who should take the baton of command from Claudia Sheinbaum. the party's card to seek the presidency. It is taken for granted that, after renouncing his aspirations to govern the capital, Harfuch will have a place in Sheinbaum's cabinet, if she wins the 2024 elections, in the public security portfolio, a matter in which she has served since 2008.
Clara Brugada and Omar García Harfuch, during a Morena conference in Mexico City on October 16. Andrea Murcia Monsivais (Cuartoscuro)
The parity criteria, approved by the National Electoral Institute (INE) at the end of last October, shook the board of aspirants in the nine states that elect governors, amid rumors of possible departures of those who were discarded to privilege the candidacy of women. Delgado had already anticipated that at least three men were going to have to give up on their aspirations. On Thursday, a day before the poll results were released, the party's leadership released an agreement that would secure the sacrificed men a seat in Congress. The document states that they will automatically become "coordinators of the defense of federalism" in their states, a euphemistic name for saying that they will be in first place on the lists of multi-member candidates for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, a place that guarantees them a seat or a seat in the next six-year term.
The final stretch of the negotiations lasted until the last moment, in the midst of strong secrecy. The teams of García Harfuch and Brugada insisted for weeks that there would be no definition until the results of the polls were in hand and the voting intention of each candidate could be determined, their competitiveness against other political forces in 2024 and the best strategy for Morena could ratify its dominance as the most voted political party and with the largest number of governorships in the next elections. The methodology was the same as that used in other internal processes, with attribute measurements and comparisons with the so-called mirror surveys.
At the same time that the distribution of candidacies was confirmed, Morena has already begun the so-called scar operation to avoid possible fractures. Unity has remained the main slogan of the leadership towards its militants, in light of the clashes that were observed in the race for the presidency with former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and in the contests of the States. The fighting wreaked havoc. For example, Senator Lucy Meza, an aspirant candidate in Morelos, resigned from the party after being excluded from the internal contest, despite her good performance in the polls. Meza was immediately welcomed by the opposition Frente Amplio, which will nominate her for the position she was denied in Morena. Deputy Mier complained about the results in Puebla, one of the most closed states, and announced that next Sunday he will make a decision on his political future. Antonio Perez Garibay, father of driver Checo Perez, also accused cheating in Jalisco. Another good example is Mexico City, where Harfuch and Brugada, although they promoted the discourse of unity, permanently maintained a fierce fight for the candidacy through their militant structures, social networks and the media.
With the gubernatorial nominations resolved, it remains to be seen whether the defeated remain in the party to support the winners or if they seek accommodation in another party. After all, polls in hand, they are aware of the popular traction they have in their states and nothing prevents them from using it as a bargaining chip. The struggles for the candidacies are a predicament for Sheinbaum's presidential race, who must not only devote efforts to building national consensus around his project, but also to put out the fires lit at the local level by the disgruntled Morenoites. New tensions are now expected to spill over into congressional and local office runs, months before Mexicans go to the polls to determine nearly 20,000 public positions next year.
In unity and organization, we carried out a historic process in which we listened to the people, who decided that the coordinators of the defense of transformation in the 9 states will be:
Yucatán -
@huachodiazmena Veracruz - @rocionahle
Tabasco -... pic.twitter.com/LhqQzBrsNi
— Morena (@PartidoMorenaMx) November 11, 2023
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