How do we get them back? There have been 239 abductees in Gaza since Black Saturday. The families are pressing for them to be brought to Israel at any price, and in the meantime, Israel is waging a military operation in the Gaza Strip the likes of which have not been seen for many years.
Rally for the Abductees in Jerusalem // Yoni Rikner
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the two goals of the operation are the release of the abductees and the elimination of the Hamas regime, but what are the options on the table for the release of the hostages, and how long will it take? Here are all the options and chances of their realization.
Liberation through intermediaries and ceasefire
In recent days, various media outlets around the world have published various reports on deals being made for the release of abductees in exchange for a ceasefire, but all of them have not been confirmed by Israeli officials (see article on next page). In any case, such a release does not solve the entire issue of the abductees – and may only increase the pressure on the government.
Either way, it is clear to everyone that the bridesmaid in such a deal will be Qatar, the mediator between the parties. According to Meir Ben-Shabbat, head of the Misgav Institute and head of the National Security Council, "In order to increase the chances of returning the hostages, it is essential to increase the military pressure in the Gaza Strip, and at the same time increase the pressure on Qatar.
All options are on the table. Photos of the abductees at the families' encampment near the Knesset, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
"The first ingredient is well executed. On the other hand, regarding Qatar, it seems that Israel and the international system treat it with silk gloves. Qatar is 'targeted' even though it continues to sponsor Hamas and hosts its leaders."
Ben-Shabbat argues that Israel's use of Qatar as a mediator is ineffective because it does not pressure it to cooperate on behalf of the abductees. "Qatar is exploiting the situation to upgrade its political status and position itself as part of the solution to the region's problems, while it is part of the problem.
"The time has come to demand that the United States give it an ultimatum: a quick release of the hostages, or a radical change in policy towards it, which will include abolishing its special status in the eyes of the United States, reducing economic, diplomatic and military ties; and imposing sanctions on the entities involved in providing support to Hamas. It's time to remove the mask of hypocrisy from Qatar, fawning to it won't help."
Diplomatic pressures to release foreign nationals
Among the 239 abductees are about 120 foreign nationals from 22 countries, divided into two groups: both Israeli and foreign nationals, and foreigners who came to Israel as tourists or to work or study. The countries of the world whose citizens were abducted – including seven French citizens who are also Israeli citizens living in Israel, and many Thais who came for work – have already begun to exert diplomatic pressure for their release.
Number of abductees with foreign citizenship, photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs
"Hamas is trying to achieve a ceasefire by releasing some of the hostages," said Yaki Dayan, former consul general in Los Angeles and chief of staff to the foreign minister. "He makes cynical use of them and may want to make a selection, differentiation and distinction between those who do not have foreign citizenship and those who have.
"There are countries that Hamas desires, such as Russia, for example, and due to a combination of interests, Israelis with Russian citizenship may be released. If this happens, it will not be done because Russia wants Israel's best interests, but because it stands in favor of Hamas.
"At the same time, there are countries like the United States, France and Argentina that are pressing for the release of the abductees who carry their citizenship. At the end of the day, these are countries that have an obligation to their citizens. Moreover, in the United States, this is an internal American issue that also comes up in politics and on the public agenda."
How big are the levers of pressure?
"The most significant lever is Qatar's. It's not for nothing that the head of the Mossad visited there. However, diplomatic negotiations are constantly taking place through many channels – American, French, Argentine. Each country manages this separately, and as far as the State of Israel is concerned, it wants the release of all the abductees – it will not be willing on its own initiative to make a selection based on foreign passports."
Prisoner exchange between Israel and Hamas
It may sound like a terrifying scenario in which Israel releases terrorists with blood on their hands – including those who participated in the brutal rapes and murders of the October 7 massacre – but we must admit: the State of Israel was willing in the past to pay such a price.
Heavy price. Gilad Shalit on the day of his release,
In October 2011, an agreement was signed between the Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas, mediated by Germany and Egypt, under which Israel accepted kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for the release of 1,027 terrorists, including Yahya Sinwar, now head of Hamas in Gaza.
These days, the families of the abductees are waging a campaign to save their loved ones from captivity. Even if this is not the official position of the families' headquarters, many of them call for the release of all terrorists from Israeli prisons in exchange for all the abductees, but the headquarters understood that the "all for all" campaign caused more harm than good to the struggle.
In any case, it is clear that Hamas will not release all the abductees without any compensation in the form of a ceasefire or a demand for the release of prisoners – which raises the question of the "price" that Israel will have to pay.
Military operation to free the hostages
Gaza is a city of terror. A crowded, complicated place with many tunnels where Hamas terrorists are hiding. Yocheved Lifshitz, who was released from captivity on humanitarian grounds, said upon her return: "We walked for kilometers in a tunnel in Gaza." On the other hand, soldier Uri Magidish, who was released by the Shin Bet and the IDF, was held alone in a residential apartment in the Shati refugee camp, not far from Shifa Hospital – that is, above the surface.
Cynical use of abductees. Maya Shem, in the Hamas video,
Not all 239 abductees are held in the same hiding. Their release will require several simultaneous military operations, in rescue operations in which there is a danger to both the safety of the forces and the safety of the abductees. Various sources can say that "the option of a military operation is always on the table," but in practice, Gilad Shalit spent five years in Gaza and intelligence officials did not really know where he was held.
In addition, Israel has an impressive record of rescuing hostages, as in Operation Sabena when a passenger plane was hijacked in May 1972, but also failures. In October 1994, Sergeant Nachshon Waxman was abducted by Hamas and held north of Jerusalem. The end is known: he was murdered by the terrorists during an IDF attempt to rescue him, and with him fell Sayeret Matkal officer Nir Porez.
Impressive track record in extraction. Operation Sabena, 1972, photo: IDF Spokesperson Ron Ilan/Baidavot IDF Archive at the Ministry of Defense
A long list of former senior IDF officials, including generals and brigadier generals, refused to comment publicly on the possibility of a rescue operation to bring the hostages home. The subject is very sensitive and complex, and any statement about the chances of success or worthwhile about it will draw reactions.
Release on humanitarian grounds
Last weekend, a sign of life came from the abductees Hannah Katzir, 77, and Vigil Yaakov, 13, in a video by the Islamic Jihad organization, which claimed that it intended to release them on humanitarian grounds. Yagil suffers from allergy and is being treated at the Allergy, Immunology and Pediatric Lung Institute at Shamir Hospital, and the director of the institute, Prof. Arnon Elitzur asked the international allergy organizations to contact the Red Cross and demand that its representatives visit Yagil and give him EpiPen syringes - a life-saving treatment for allergic children.
"We walked for miles in a tunnel." Yocheved Lifshitz after her release, photo: Jenny Yerushalmi, Ichilov Spokesperson's Office
The Red Cross, as an international humanitarian aid organization, is supposed to take care of the rights of abductees. So far, however, they have not met the abductees in Gaza, including babies, the elderly and the sick who need medicine.
"The Red Cross has repeatedly failed," says Yaki Dayan. "After he came to us with demands regarding the conditions of detention of Hamas terrorists, he did not reach the Israeli abductees. The humanitarian organizations responsible for the welfare of abductees are not doing their jobs. We have to preserve hope, but there is an understanding that without the military track, diplomacy alone will not work."
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