Ukraine suffers in Gaza

War is uncertain by definition. It can change course suddenly due to factors beyond the control of those who direct it, and even more so those who seek to understand what is happening on the battlefields. It is a cliché of military doctrine that there is not a single plan that resists entry into combat.

Now the Gaza war has provided Putin with the opportunity to win in the Middle East what he has already lost in Ukraine. Their war and atrocities are overshadowed by the atrocities of Hamas and the far-right Israeli government in the attention of the media and international governments and institutions.

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The escalation of horror, stimulated by digital warfare, has become an auction, in which each party seeks to neutralize its own perversities with the exhibition of those of others. Between the barbaric images of the entry of Hamas terrorists into Israel and the assault by Israeli troops on the Al Shifa hospital complex, the bestial images of Bucha and Irpin have been pushed into the background.

The new war not only has propaganda effects, but also affects artillery supplies, essential in the war of attrition, to the detriment of the Ukrainian army, which is increasingly short of ammunition. Israel has entered into competition with Ukraine in the demand for missiles, while Russia has managed in these two years to fine-tune its war industry. There are now two world markets: the western one with enormous difficulties in meeting demand and rising prices, and the eastern one with sufficient production, increased by the supply of North Korea and Iran.

The divisive effects of the Gaza war are a boon for Putin. They don't just affect the supply of weapons, where the U.S. gives preference to Israel's demands. The fracture has moved within public opinion, democratic institutions, governments and international organizations. Unlike the war in Ukraine, which provoked pacifist reactions or indifference, especially in the so-called global south, the war in Gaza is causing an isolation of Israel and its closest allies and a huge tear in Western countries, where the generational change and the weight of the population of Arab or Muslim origin makes it difficult to understand the practically unconditional solidarity of their governments with the Netanyahu government.

Putin is deadlocked in Ukraine, entrusting the course of the war to chaos in the ranks of his designated enemy, that collective West that within a year may have Donald Trump as its leader. Ukraine's only success these days is the proposal to open negotiations on accession to the European Union. Although it is loaded with symbolism, it also contains a warning about the urgency of peace in the face of the possibility of endless war or even a slow defeat due to exhaustion.

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