Status: 18.11.2023, 16:35 PM
By: Leonie Hudelmaier
CommentsPrint Share
Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko is also persecuting his opponents abroad. © IMAGO/Pavel Bednyakov
Three years after the wave of protests in Belarus, it is more difficult than ever for the democracy movement in the country. An expert explains how autocracy works.
Berlin – Belarus is almost exclusively reported in the context of the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko continues to expand his power in the country. In an interview, Olga Dryndova, editor of "Belarus Analyses" at the Research Centre for Eastern Europe at the University of Bremen, explains what this means for the people in the country.
Olga Dryndova, editor of the "Belarus Analyses" at the Research Centre for Eastern Europe at the University of Bremen © private
Last week, the Bundestag passed a resolution on Belarus. What does it mean?
What I find remarkable is that, according to the text of the resolution, 'a democratic Belarus is welcome in the European community of values'. Even if indirectly, this could mean a prospect of EU accession for Belarus. The fact that the German government still does not recognise him as the legitimate president three years after the election of Alexander Lukashenko shows that it is serious about its solidarity with the democracy movement. The resolution also mentions the Joint Transitional Cabinet of the Belarusian Democratic Forces, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, as a relevant actor to communicate with. This attitude is definitely something qualitatively new for the German-Belarusian relationship.
How has the Lukashenko regime changed over the past three years?
I think it's a bit of a shame that this system was already called Europe's last dictatorship before 2020. Because as a result, much of what happened after 2020 was virtually invalidated. Some experts now speak of a system at the intersection of autocracy and totalitarianism.
Belarus: "We are dealing with a strong wave of repression"
What exactly is happening there?
Things are happening in Belarus that happened in Soviet times. We are dealing with a very strong wave of repression aimed at eliminating direct political participation of citizens. The Belarusian government is trying to ban all actors who have the potential to gather people. Non-state media, independent trade unions, almost all parties were liquidated. Events on climate protection, culture or education are also often seen as a danger by the state. A complete depoliticization of the population is achieved.
How has Belarusian relations with Russia changed over the past three years?
As long as the relationship between Belarus and the West is tense, dependence on Russia is critical. Otherwise, there is no alternative to Lukashenko's system continuing to be financed and politically supported. Lukashenko also has Putin personally to thank for staying in power during the difficult first weeks after the 2020 election. If Russia had questioned Lukashenko's political legitimacy, it would have been his political end.
0
Read also
0
Fighting near Avdiivka: Russian military reportedly executed its own soldiers
READ
Rwanda ruling shows that asylum procedures in third countries are difficult under international law
READ3
Russia destroys its own tanks – video shows explosion of "vehicle bomb" far from Ukraine position
READ
Video shows Ukraine's "hellish attack" near Bakhmut
READ
"Cargo 200": Russia sets weight for fallen soldiers – bitter comparison to previous war
READ
Fancy a voyage of discovery?
My Area
How can the West stand up for Belarus now?
In essence, it is important that Belarus receives media and political attention. The so-called legitimation function is important here. If you don't meet with the Belarusian leadership, but with democratic forces, they are legitimized for the German and Belarusian audiences. This is important for the democracy movement in Belarus. In addition, those who are not known will not be financially supported. To this end, external democracy promotion is part of German and EU foreign policy. And Belarus is one of the many autocracies that Germany and the EU see as a security threat.
Dictatorship in Belarus: "The prisoners are being led to believe that they have been forgotten"
How dangerous is it, then, that Belarus has largely disappeared from public discourse?
Since Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Belarus has been talked about almost exclusively as a co-aggressor. Reporting on Belarus without ties to Russia and Ukraine makes little sense – it's part of the whole regional situation. Without Belarusian territory, for example, the attack on Kiev would not have been possible in this form. But the separation between society and the regime was not always depicted. And the detained people depend on public attention. It is a psychological war waged by autocracies. The prisoners are led to believe that they have been forgotten. It may be because of this that there have already been several suicide attempts by political prisoners.