The next few days will be tough. A mix of joy and worry and tense nerves, until the return of 53 women and children from Gaza to Israel.
Naturally, the hope is that the children will return first: from the youngest, in ascending order. That's what the heart wants, but that's not what will happen. Hamas, as usual, will stretch the rope to the edge. Each beat will also include the release of children, but it will leave children for the end, and even after the end, knowing that this is the soft belly. That way, he will be able to extend the ceasefire under the pretext that he is "looking" for those who are not in his hands.
The abducted children, photo: courtesy of the Families Headquarters
This anticipated abuse was intended to serve a more important purpose: stopping the IDF's ground operation in order to prevent the collapse of its rule and the erosion of Hamas' military power. Therefore, it can be assumed that the organization will do everything possible to extend the ceasefire. He will try to trade in women and children, and then in bodies and men. He has so many abductees in his hands that he can drag the process – and the suffering – for weeks on end, hoping that along the way the Israeli campaign will dissolve.
Defense Minister Communications
Hamas is not alone in wanting to see the end of the campaign. Qatar is also pushing there, and there are growing signs that the United States is too. Together with the expected pressure from the families of the abductees, and against the background of tens of thousands of evacuees from their homes and a problematic economic reality, the government will need determination in order to proceed as planned – to complete the damage to Hamas' systems in Gaza City, and subsequently to its infrastructure in the southern Gaza Strip.
Even before that, the IDF will have to deal with the complex reality of a lull in the fighting, which is supposed to take effect this morning. The postponement of the agreement by a day stemmed from a demand by Hamas – which was introduced at the last minute – that the IDF's heavy vehicles not move throughout the lull, but remain static in place. Israel, of course, refused to do so, so as not to allow them to be harmed. Hamas also demanded free humanitarian movement northward, and arrangements had to be found to ensure that it would not be used to transport operatives and weapons, whenever possible.
The IDF made it clear that the truce does not obligate the army to stagnation. IDF forces in the Gaza Strip, photo: IDF Spokesperson
Seize the silence
Past experience shows that the first day of the ceasefire is particularly sensitive. Any movement is perceived as a threat, and may lead to a response with fire. Since civilians still remain on the ground, and it is likely that Hamas operatives will take advantage of the lull to exit the tunnels, the forces will need iron nerves, while in the background there is also the possibility of deliberate provocations on the part of Hamas, for example by attempting to transport the population back north.
IDF attack in Lebanon, photo: AP.
Israel is aware that Hamas will take advantage of the pause to regroup. The same is true for the IDF: after four weeks of continuous ground fighting – and seven weeks since Black Saturday – the forces on the ground and at headquarters will be able to reduce the tension slightly, and also prepare for the next stages of the campaign.
The same is true for the northern border. Hezbollah has already announced that it will respect the truce and will not act during it, and both sides will have the opportunity to reassess the reality in the sector, where the activity was much more intensive than was revealed to the public. It can be assumed that many residents will also want to take advantage of the quiet to jump home, in anticipation of the possibility of renewed fighting for an unknown period.
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