The Israeli government's decision on the deal to release the hostages was tantamount to "woe to me from my creators and woe to me from my straits." As far as Hamas is concerned, the internal dispute over this issue is no longer a casual product, which usually accompanies decisions of this kind, but an end in itself.
Nahal Brigade fighters fighting on the outskirts of Jabaliya // IDF Spokesperson
Psychological warfare and efforts to influence consciousness in Israel are an inherent component of Hamas' moves, not only in terrorist attacks and fighting on the ground, but also in the negotiating field. Stirring up strife and creating division within Israeli society are the way to weaken it on the battlefield as well. The opponents of the deal did well to decide to join the majority position and maintain cohesion. This pattern should also be adopted in the face of the additional manipulations that Hamas will employ and in light of the many challenges that still lie ahead, until it is defeated.
Don't bury our heads in the sand
At the same time, under no circumstances should we bury our heads in the sand or dampen the costs and risks resulting from the ceasefire. Presenting them in a bright light is essential to prepare for them and deal with them.
Hamas would probably like to see the ceasefire as the turning point in the war. Thus, according to them, the IDF will lose momentum and deteriorate in a gradual process, through a series of ceasefires and restrictive conditions, until the fighting is completely stopped. At the same time, Israel will lose legitimacy for a high-intensity war, the international community will increase its involvement in shaping the reality of an arrangement, and in the meantime, Hamas will recover.
The families of the abductees are waiting for the deal to begin, photo: Gideon Markowitz
In Hamas' optimal final picture, senior military leaders and most of the organization's military force remain intact. So is his political leadership, which is based in Qatar and other countries. Hamas continues to be the main force in the Gaza Strip and dictates the agenda, Israel is forced to release its security prisoners and agree to restrictions on its activities – as part of an exchange deal. The final piece of the final picture puzzle is an agreement to initiate an international process to rehabilitate the Gaza Strip.
Such a scenario is completely contrary to Israel's desired final picture and is intolerable from Israel's perspective. The very good action of the IDF and the Shin Bet so far has yielded many achievements and reflected execution capabilities that radiate strength against other adversaries as well – but there is still a long way to go to achieve the goals of the war. The ceasefire in the framework of the liberation deal will pose many operational challenges to Israel.
Above all stands the challenge of renewing hostilities
Above all is the challenge of renewing fighting and escaping Hamas's honey trap. The IDF must preserve the "war machine" when it operates in accordance with the declaration of the political echelon of its intention to continue fighting. It must carry out on the ground, during the ceasefire, steps towards the next stages that do not constitute a violation of the understandings.
Forces inside Gaza City, photo: AFP
For example, the distribution of leaflets and evacuation notices to areas where fighting is expected to resume. This is also the time to complete the establishment of a broad security perimeter along the entire border and to establish the IDF's control positions in a way that will illustrate the expected profound change in the security reality. At the same time, and in the spirit of statements made by the political echelon, the defense establishment must act against senior figures in Hamas and its infrastructure outside the Gaza Strip who are not included in the ceasefire understandings.
Another challenge facing the defense establishment is the thwarting of Hamas' efforts to arm itself and arm itself under the cover of the ceasefire. This is said both regarding the smuggling of weapons and means from Egypt and the exploitation of humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip for these purposes. It is right to take a strict approach to this. There is no reason for Israeli generosity in humanitarian aid when it is clear that at least some of it will be used by Hamas.
In parallel with the fighting efforts in Gaza, the IDF must continue its determined struggle against the terrorist organizations in the West Bank. The attack planned by a Hamas squad from Hebron and halted at the tunnel checkpoint attests to the motivation and ideas currently brewing in the heads of terrorist elements in Judea and Samaria. The Gaza Strip provides them with a reason and inspiration for this. Only determination and offensive initiative, as the defense establishment has shown in recent months, will restrain this trend.
The writer is the head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy
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