After 50 days of fighting, which included air strikes and ground maneuvers in the northern Gaza Strip, the IDF repeatedly repeats the message that Hamas' command and control in the northern Gaza Strip has been severely damaged, and in general most of its battalions in this area have been disbanded.
However, Hamas' conduct since the ceasefire began indicates exactly the opposite. With the exception of one violation of rocket fire into the Gaza envelope fifteen minutes after the ceasefire began, all the organization's operatives toed the order from above and stopped the fire. In addition, the operation to release the abductees from the Gaza Strip is being conducted exactly as Hamas wants, dictating the identity of the abductees who are released, in blatant violation of the clauses of the agreement relating to the separation of Israeli families and the timetable for the release.
Netanyahu: "The liberation plan is welcome, but at the end we will eliminate Hamas" // Photo: Roy Avraham/GPO
The day before yesterday, Sinwar allowed himself to be clever and threaten that he would not fulfill his part in releasing the hostages, falsely claiming that Israel allegedly did not comply with the agreement. A battered organization that understands that its end is imminent will do everything to avoid annihilation, but Sinwar's conduct indicates that even in the northern Gaza Strip, the main focus of ground maneuvers, Hamas is still far from breaking point.
The current hostage deal is a clear Israeli interest and part of the state's moral debt to its citizens, which it abandoned on 7 October. But it is impossible to ignore the fact that, to a certain extent, it is also in Hamas' interest to get rid of the propaganda "attack" it created for itself in the form of abducted toddlers, children, mothers and elderly people. In addition, through the deal, Sinwar was able to stop the Israeli offensive, which was in full swing, and it is very likely that he will try to do additional exercises, as we saw yesterday, in order to extend the lull to the maximum possible.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a tour of Gaza, photo: Avi Ohayon - GPO
"Nothing will stop us." Netanyahu in Gaza, today, photo: Avi Ohayon / GPO
However you look at it, even if Hamas complies with the terms of the agreement and releases the abductees it promised them, and even ten more abductees in exchange for every additional day of respite, it will still have more than a hundred abducted Israelis, mostly men, soldiers, but also female soldiers and perhaps other women.
The first part of the ceasefire is supposed to end today, unless otherwise agreed between the sides. Every day of respite allows Hamas terrorists to organize for the future, rearm, accumulate forces and prepare for the IDF's continued activity in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, it is likely that the organization will support its extension.
IDF soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip, photo: Report
Yesterday, the IDF published a picture of IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, assessing the situation at the Southern Command in order to approve plans for the continuation of the war with the commander of the Southern Command. The picture was intended to exert pressure on Hamas on the eve of the last day of the planned ceasefire, in case Hamas decides not to continue releasing hostages in the coming days. The political-security leadership is preparing for the possibility that in the coming days they will face significant dilemmas regarding the continuation of the ceasefire. Because what will happen, for example, if Hamas announces that it is willing to release eight abductees rather than ten in exchange for another day of respite? Or even five?
One way or another, Israel also took advantage of the lull to refresh its forces, learn lessons from the war, and prepare for the future. "We will return to fighting and striking Hamas as soon as the lull intended for the return of the hostages ends, and we will continue until Hamas is completely crushed and all the abductees returned," Defense Minister Yoav Galant promised yesterday.
"We will continue until the complete crushing of Hamas", Galant in Gaza, photo: Ariel Hermony, Ministry of Defense
Even if enormous international pressure is exerted on Israel, the IDF is absolutely forbidden to stop now. If Israel does not act with disproportionate force in the Gaza Strip, its weakness will affect the entire region, especially the northern border, where tens of thousands of civilians were evicted from their homes more than a month ago. The truth is that it will be much easier for the residents of the south to return to their homes by creating a new security reality in the Gaza Strip, but moving Radwan's forces beyond the Litani is not currently one of the first three goals of the war.
What is clear is that Israel cannot afford to show hesitation or weakness in the south of the country, because if it does not do so, it will explode in its face, and not only in the south.
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