When Yahya Sinwar ordered the Nukhba forces on Simchat Torah morning to kidnap Jews, there was a clear war plan in his satanic mind. He believed that we would get down on our knees, hold the fire and beg our people, granting immunity to his people. That didn't happen. Israel has forged a different course of war of annihilation against his organization, which was halted only by the government's decision a week ago on the truce.
Documentation: Abductees transferred from Hamas to the Red Cross | Arab networks
Now, as expected, the ceasefire is being extended by two days, and as far as Israel is concerned, it can continue, even until Monday morning. This is what the government decided. But Hamas, as well as its patron Qatar, have not forgotten the plan to stop the Israeli war machine in exchange for a trickle of hostages. There are reasons to suspect that this was discussed yesterday in Qatar by Mossad chief Dadi Barnea and the heads of the intelligence services of the United States, Qatar and Egypt.
Gaza residents watch the great destruction in the Gaza Strip, Photo: AP
As long as the ceasefire is not extended beyond six days, here's how things could develop in the coming day.
a. Extension of the truce to ten days: According to the government's decision, the ceasefire will last a maximum of ten days, that is, four additional days beyond the six already agreed. This is the most likely scenario, since Hamas, Qatar, the United States and Israel itself are interested in it. In such a case, the number of those released from Hamas captivity will reach 100, and the number of terrorists released from prison will reach 300. However, if Hamas proposes the release of soldiers and men, the government will have to discuss a different return for our people.
b. Extending the truce beyond 10 days – In order to open a discussion, if at all, about extending the truce, Hamas will have to make a very tempting offer for the Israelis. The chances of him doing so are low, because the Israeli public has learned the lesson from the Shalit deal and is no longer willing to pay exorbitant prices for abductees, with all the regret involved. In addition, Netanyahu, Galant, Gantz and Smotrich vowed that the truce was limited to only ten days. Even so, there are fighters and civilians who are outraged by the cessation of the maneuver. Technically, the government will also be required to hold another meeting, in which at least Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will come out against a renewed deal with Hamas.
You have to sober up. Netanyahu and Galant, Photo: Haim Tzach - GPO
3) Surprising collapse of the ceasefire: Although Hamas representatives in Qatar express a desire to extend the ceasefire, it must be taken into account that Sinwar is once again resorting to strategic deception and intends to surprise our soldiers before it ends. The man has a history of such deception, and sometimes misled the Hamas leadership in Qatar as well.
4) The Beirut scenario: Hamas will agree to demilitarize the Gaza Strip and perhaps even withdraw from the Gaza Strip with its leadership, as happened with Arafat in the First Lebanon War. The chances of such a scenario materializing are slim, and it does not meet the goals of the war as defined by Israel and agreed with the Americans, according to which Hamas will not have governmental capabilities in the Gaza Strip the day after. Israel also has bitter political experience with foreign forces, Arab or international, that are supposed to take care of its security.
Nasrallah speaking from the screen in Beirut, photo: Reuters
5) Fauda: The ceasefire will collapse because of violations on the ground, and yesterday we already saw our soldiers injured as a result of IEDs and gunfire. Such a dynamic will lead to the collapse of the truce and a return to fighting at an unknown date.
What is certain is that the coming days are expected to be nerve-wracking, and the decisions expected for leaders will also be difficult.
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