Naturally, all eyes are on the southern arena: this is the main arena of war, where the hostages are and where fighting will resume as soon as the truce ends.
In order for all this to be possible, Israel must keep all sectors below the threshold of war. This was the government's original decision, from which the IDF's action plans are derived. Therefore, Israel refrains from responding to the Houthis' blatant provocations in Yemen and makes do with intercepting the missiles and drones, and therefore it also makes sure to clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon in such a way that it does not deteriorate into war – at least not at the moment.
Arab networks
It's a complex task that is all about playing with fire, literally. After absorbing and responding sparingly in the first days of the war, Israel began to raise the bar of response proactively. The operational idea said that instead of Israel being in a dilemma, Hezbollah would be in a dilemma. Every firing (of rockets, mortars, anti-tank missiles, or drones and drones) will have a significant response, including damage to infrastructure and deliberate killing of operatives.
The result is that after the IDF paid expensive tuition fees for the dead and wounded in the first few days, Hezbollah began to pay a much heavier price. Not only in fatalities (about 100), but also in the loss of assets – from headquarters and surveillance and communications equipment, to anti-aircraft batteries. Israel sought to convey the message that it is not deterred, and along the way also to deny capabilities and means that are important to Hezbollah.
Nasrallah, Photo: EPA
The result is that Hezbollah has retreated to rear positions, and is no longer present near the fence. This should not be seen as a hint of things to come: If the fighting stops, Hezbollah will once again challenge Israel in every way. Since the government has already made it clear that it will work to change the reality in the north so that the Radwan force will not be near the residents so as not to allow a northern edition of the October 7 offensive, solutions are needed to ensure that such a fundamental change will happen.
Two options
During his visit to the north yesterday, the chief of staff spoke of two possibilities. The first is a broad war that will fundamentally change the situation in Lebanon in general, and in southern Lebanon in particular. This is the least desirable scenario, because such a war would also exact a heavy price from the Israeli home front. Unlike the campaign in Gaza, which began with Hamas' murderous attack on civilians, it is also doubtful whether Israel has international legitimacy for an attack initiated in Lebanon, certainly if it includes extensive harm to civilians.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy arrived at the scene and is assessing the situation, Photo: IDF Spokesperson
The second option is a limited campaign, at the end of which Hezbollah will be removed from the fence and Israel will effectively maintain a security zone there, similar to the security zone it intends to establish west of the fence in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear whether such a security zone would include a permanent Israeli presence on Lebanese soil, as it was until the withdrawal in 2000, or whether another way would be found to ensure this.
Past experience shows that reliance on international parties to guarantee the agreement is empty. After the Second Lebanon War, UN Resolution 1701 was adopted, stating that there would be no armed force south of the Litani River. Hezbollah defied the decision, turned more than 200 villages in southern Lebanon into fortified combat zones, and placed various types of weapons, headed by an array of tens of thousands of rockets.
Shooting from Lebanon at the northern border, yesterday, photo: None
Anyone who thinks that the UN or any other international force will guarantee Israel's security, or stop Hezbollah in the future, does not live in the Middle East. The only one who can do this is the IDF, and it will be required to do so as soon as it ends the main war in Gaza. Until then, residents of the north will be required to remain far from their homes, and the reservists will remain in service. This is a high price, but one that is necessary if Israel really intends to fundamentally change the situation in the north as well.
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