He had met De Gaulle, Golda Meïr, Sadat and the Pope. Hunted wild boar with Brezhnev. Negotiated with Deng Xiaoping. Visited hundreds of countries. The architect of American diplomacy from the 1970s onwards died on Thursday, November 30. In the twilight of a century of extraordinary existence, Henry Kissinger, his body diminished but his mind still alert, was still publicly painting the geopolitical picture of the century to come.
In his last four interviews, given in the year of his death to the German media WELT TV and Die Zeit, the American newspaper The Economist and the Bloomberg news agency, the former US secretary of state, who was also a professor, gave his last lessons in international relations.
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Hamas attack, a 'fundamental attack on the international system'
When he replied to Axel Springer SE CEO Mathias Döpfner in front of WELT TV's cameras last October, it had been two weeks since Hamas sent its terror brigades to sow death in Israel. Henry Kissinger saw it as a "fundamental attack on the international system" that further undermines the planetary order.
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Hamas' act of aggression must be subject to "some sanction," he said, while warning of the danger of escalation in the region. "The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate and drag other Arab countries under the pressure of their public opinion." The former U.S. secretary of state referred to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which saw the emergence of an Arab coalition led by Egypt and Syria against Israel. The Hamas attack came 50 years and one day after the start of that 1973 war. At that time, Henry Kissinger had just been appointed Secretary of State. Hamas' real goal "can only be to mobilize the Arab world against Israel and get out of the path of peaceful negotiations," he warned.
Asked about the pro-Palestine protests that hit the headlines in Germany at the time, Henry Kissinger said that "mass immigration" to Germany, his home country, had been a "grave mistake": "It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different cultures, religions and concepts, because it creates a pressure group within each country that did the same thing.
»In the same interview with WELT TV, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate said it was "painful" to see demonstrators in Berlin rejoicing over the aggression against Israel. Born into a Bavarian Jewish family on May 27, 1923, Heinz Kissinger - his real name - fled his country and came to the United States with his family in 1938, five years after Hitler came to power. Twelve members of his family disappeared in the Holocaust. He says he was "attacked in the street by the Hitler Youth." "The whole atmosphere was very hostile, there were signs everywhere saying that Jews are not welcome. There was only one family in Leutershausen who continued to be friendly with us.
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Avoiding a conflict with China
In his last interviews, the man who was the architect of an opening diplomacy with China also spoke at length about the stakes of the opposition between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. "On the current trajectory of relations, I think a military conflict is likely," he told Blommberg. He added that such wars between two superpowers could not be won, or would be "winnable only at disproportionate costs".
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The conflict over Taiwan could escalate in ways that no one can control. That danger exists," he told WELT TV in November about the risk of nuclear conflict. "A military confrontation between the two powers would be a terrible disaster, worse than the First World War. Both are high-tech powers, they both have weapons of unlimited destructive power.
»As a pragmatic proponent of realpolitik, he encouraged the United States not to stick to a simplistic view of the Chinese, sometimes simply seen as communists. "I think for them communism is just a form of authoritarian rule, and they are actually acting according to Confucian principles," he said on WEL TV. According to his principles, the Chinese wanted to "work at the highest level of their capabilities," but "did not demand the appropriation of territories and the domination of other countries." Even though China believes that it is "entitled to the respect required by the magnitude of its conduct".
Henry Kissinger meets Mao on February 17, 1973 in Beijing. -/AFP
To avoid this risk, Kissinger advocated coexistence with China. The breakdown of the relationship, he told Die Zeit, was "partly due to our own lack of skills". He continued: "If we are strong and determined, I think coexistence with China is possible." A few months earlier, however, he pointed out to The Economist that this success was far from guaranteed: "It may fail. And therefore, we must be strong enough militarily to sustain failure.
»In front of the journalists of The Economist, he mocked the idealistic vision of some of his compatriots who consider that "a defeated China would become democratic and peaceful". "I don't see any precedent for that," he said. More likely, a collapse of the communist regime would lead to a civil war that would escalate into ideological conflict and only add to global instability." And the top diplomat concluded: "It is not in our interest to lead China to dissolution.
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A controversial view of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia
Henry Kissinger's latest statements on the war in Ukraine are arguably the ones that have caused the most ink to flow. While he calls the February 2022 Russian invasion a "catastrophic error of judgment on Putin's part" in The Economist, he considers that the West is not blameless either.
In the interview with Die Zeit, he recalled that as early as 2014 he had "expressed serious doubts about the plan to invite Ukraine to join NATO. This was the beginning of a series of events that culminated in the war. It doesn't justify the war, but I was of the opinion then, and I still am today," that this project "was not wise." The former US secretary of state added: "My assessment at the time was that it would have been better to leave Ukraine neutral, with a status similar to Finland at the time.
»However, Henry Kissinger claimed that this position - which had earned him much criticism - had evolved and that he now considered that Ukraine should be encouraged to join NATO: "Today, I am absolutely in favour of the admission of Ukraine to NATO after the end of the war. Now that there are no more neutral zones between NATO and Russia," it "is better.
»Henry Kissinger and Leonid Brezhnev, October 21, 1973 in Moscow. -/AFP
In this regard, Henry Kissinger criticized, in The Economist, the current conduct of the Europeans, consisting in arming Ukraine without seriously considering its accession to NATO. He described this behaviour as "insanely dangerous": "Because the Europeans say, 'We don't want them in NATO, because it's too risky. And therefore, we will arm them thoroughly and give them the most advanced weapons." Theconclusion of the great diplomat was clear: "We have now armed Ukraine to such an extent that it will be the best armed and least strategically experienced country in Europe.
»To build a lasting peace in Europe, the former foreign minister told American journalists that the West must now, in addition to bringing Ukraine into NATO, organize a rapprochement with Russia, in order to stabilize its eastern borders. According to him, the West should get the Russians to give up as much as possible the territories conquered in 2014. The risk of a ceasefire is that Russia will ultimately keep "at least the city of Sevastopol, the largest city in Crimea and the main Russian port on the Black Sea".
According to Die Zeit, Henry Kissinger said he did not believe that Putin "will use nuclear weapons to defend his conquests in Ukraine". "But the more it goes to the heart of Russian identity, the more likely it is that it will do so," the centenarian said. He also criticised the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Vladimir Putin: "Putin on trial? Better not to do it! It becomes impossible, or much more difficult, to limit a war if the outcome of the war is tied to the personal fate of a political leader.
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"I'm very worried about AI"
During his statements, the former diplomat returned to the issue of artificial intelligence many times. A subject on which he was preparing a book. "I'm very worried about AI," he told WELT TV. "Once these machines can communicate with each other, which they will certainly within five years, then it almost becomes a species problem of whether the human species can preserve its individuality in the face of this competition that it has created itself.
»For The Economist, he insisted on the need for Sino-American collaboration on AI: we are "in a world of unprecedented destructiveness," he warned. If you look at military history, you can say that it was never possible to destroy all your opponents, because of the limitations of geography and accuracy." Today, "there are no limits. Every opponent is 100% vulnerable." According to him, the disruptive potential of AI is comparable to that of the invention of the printing press, which upset geopolitical balances by the spread of new ideas in Europe in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries.
"I think we need to start talking about the impact of technology on each other," he continued. We need to take small steps towards arms control, in which each side presents the other with verifiable information on capabilities." The challenge is for leaders to be wise enough to understand that AI should not be pushed to its limits. Otherwise, "you risk destroying the world."
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Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States
Interviewed by journalists from the American news agency Bloomberg, Kissinger also outlined the challenges that he believes Europe should face in the coming decades, focusing on the cases of Germany and the United Kingdom. "Europe's political centre of gravity is moving inexorably towards Germany," he said. The leading country should be an example of moderation and wisdom by balancing the interests of all countries. (...) We are at a time when a new structure of Europe must be created on the basis of this reality.
»Angela Merkel and Henry Kissinger in Berlin on June 21, 2017. JOHN MACDOUGALL / AFP
As for the British, "the United Kingdom outside the European Union is now better placed to strengthen its ties with the Americans than a country like France that remains inside the bloc," he said. Kissinger also referred to the "special partnership" between Britain and the United States, stressing that there was now "a great opportunity for it to act as a link between Europe and America."
Also for Bloomberg, Kissinger had looked at the state of American politics, highlighting its worrying polarization in the run-up to the 2024 presidential elections. According to him, the risk is clear: "America will isolate itself" if it continues to prioritize domestic politics without taking international affairs into consideration. "I don't think Biden can provide the inspiration and... "I hope the Republicans can find someone better," he told The Economist. It's not a great moment in history."
On a more intimate note, the centenarian spoke to WELT TV about the detachment of an old man from the great upheavals of the world. A few weeks before his death, he said: "When you get very old, you need a lot. It's like being a used car with a lot of breakdowns. But overall, it frees you from worry about how your actions might affect your future. There is a serenity above you, because you can no longer have great demands on the future.
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