The inflammation of the Argentine pope's lungs that forced him to cancel his visit to Dubai, capital of the United Arab Emirates, complicates the picture somewhat because the trip was very important for Jorge Bergoglio.
It included more than thirty meetings with the main figures of the UN climate summit, who were eager to meet him, and his leadership on the issue of global climate degradation is recognized, which led him to write an encyclical on the subject.
The Vatican reported that the "modality" of the Holy See's participation in the Cop28 conference is now being studied after the suspension of Francis' trip.
"The delegation will participate in the two weeks of work, but I will participate only in the first part of the work," said Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, who has accumulated a lot of experience on the subject in previous meetings and documents.
The Pope's absence due to his health problems is felt above all by his role as head of state that a long line of other world heads of state and government who wanted to take advantage of talks that could be prolonged, due to the urgency of thorny political crises, such as the war in the Middle East and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is about to turn two years old.
Pope Francis and Pietro Parolin in a 2018 photo. Photo: REUTERS
Cardinal Parolin has been very involved in these issues as Bergoglio's main collaborator, who in an interview said that "the Church continues to have confidence in diplomacy."
Pope's health creates tensions
The pope's illness creates potential internal problems, because a two-year period was planned to frame and contain the major conflicts within the Catholic Church in the cycle of synods of synods, the first part of which took place in October at the Vatican. The second part is scheduled for next October.
Some observers argue that the "momentum" to set in motion a succession controlled by the Argentine pope himself should come once the two phases of the synod had completed their mission.
If the health of the pope, who will turn 17 on December 87, does not throw up any surprises, this will be possible. But it is also likely that reality will force the process to be brought forward.
It did not escape those who closely follow the alternatives of the internal Vatican that Cardinal Parolin addressed a letter on October 23 to the leadership of the German Episcopate, in which he points out that there are two proposals of the internal German Synodal Path that "violate non-negotiable teachings of the Church: the ordination of women and the Church's teaching on the sinfulness of homosexual acts."
This categorical position is evidently shared by the Pope himself. All these issues are to be discussed by the German bishops with the members of the Roman Curia, headed by Secretary Parolin, in the spring of 2024.
In another letter, it is claimed that Cardinal Parolin marked the red lines for the Germans that the Vatican is not willing to cross in dialogue with the bishops and other promoters of the package of reforms launched by the German Church since it began its own synodal path three years ago.
Pope Francis had to suspend his trip to the United Arab Emirates on medical advice. Photo: AFP
These statements, on the one hand, reinforce Parolin's moderate image and, on the other, his harmony with the Pope himself. The cardinal has never been considered "a Bergoglian," but neither has he been suspected of collusion with conservatives.
The Vatican Intern and the Role of Pietro Parolin
In the difficult internal struggle of the Church, Parolin ends up settling into a privileged position that he has maintained with great consistency. It is in the middle and above the clashes between progressive and conservative factions.
It is difficult to predict what role the new prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, Argentine Cardinal Victor Manuel Fernandez, will also play in the issue of the pope's succession.
Of course, the position of the new head of such an important ministry arouses many expectations, but no one doubts that the opinions of "Tucho" Fernández are in absolute harmony with those of the Pope and friend Jorge Bergoglio.
Parolin has a very important goal in his favor. He's Italian. Like the hitherto solitary favorite for succession, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops' Conference, Italianness adds an important package of votes to him in the Conclave.
There are conservative groups that have long conspired against the continuity candidacy of a Bergoglian, who might be willing to reach an agreement that avoids a bloody struggle by voting for a unity candidate.
Cardinal Parolin seems to be the figure who has the best conditions to bring an arrangement to life. But there is still a long way to go in a scenario of clashes between conservatives and progressives, in which those who support a successor dear to Jorge Bergoglio appear to be in the majority in the next conclave.
CB