New polls conducted by political figures who are outside the political system, a recalculation of the course by Likud members, and the flourishing of future right-wing parties: After a pause of almost two months, it seems that the political system has returned to normal, and although there is no election campaign on the horizon in the coming months due to the fighting, Knesset members and ministers are already preparing for the day after.
The two scenarios discussed within the Likud relate to the possibility of replacing Netanyahu in this Knesset in order to avoid going to elections, which will certainly decide their political fate, and the other to embarking on quick elections during war.
Personal friendship versus camping. Likud faction (archive), photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Likud Knesset members say in closed conversations that they believe Netanyahu is examining the possibility of holding snap elections in order to get ahead of his rivals who are organizing on the sides of the political arena. As part of the move, Netanyahu will work to hold primaries for the Likud leadership in order to confirm the party's support for his candidacy.
The obstacle to such a move: At least half of the current members of the faction are not expected to visit the benches of the next Knesset after the next election campaign. They have already said that they will not support Netanyahu's attempt to dissolve the Knesset, and thus shorten their political careers. It seems that even his partners in right-wing parties will not rush to go to elections in light of the polls.
The New Parties: Interlocking from the Right
Although there are dozens of members in the Knesset itself who have no interest in going to elections now, headed by Netanyahu, the odds are actually tilted in favor of new parties that will be born here soon. Apparently, there are mainly two, one to be established by former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, the other by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and others.
Naftali Bennett (Archive), Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
In the Likud sector, party ministers have, among other things, the following figures taken from a survey that examined future trends: The Likud party could crash to at least 15 seats, while Gantz's State Camp party presents a stable figure of 26 seats, even assuming that Bennett, Cohen and others join the political system.
The flourishing of right-wing parties the day after will fit the political-security agenda that will occupy the citizens of Israel in the coming months as well, following the massacre, first and foremost the question of a Palestinian state. It's not for nothing that Netanyahu on the one hand and Lapid on the other deal with the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, yes or no. This question, which preoccupies the American administration ahead of the presidential elections, will meet here in the coming year a preoccupation that will lead far from American public opinion towards other solutions the day after in Gaza.
In a poll of concerns, Likud members also estimate that none of the incumbent parties are perceived as a governing alternative. This means that not only the Likud under Netanyahu was politically harmed by the consequences of the massacre, but in fact all the political skyscrapers on the field.
This is the reason for the recent insinuations by former Mossad chief Cohen, who seems to be basking in similar polls presented to him. Israel is expected to look for a leader the day after – outside the incumbent political system. The same leader will be required to oppose everything perceived as the failures of the massacre: the Oslo Accords, the Shalit deal, the disengagement and the theory of war in rounds.
Netanyahu and Yossi Cohen, photo: Oren Ben Hakon/AP
Bennett, if he does return according to plans, is expected to benefit mainly from seats that come from centrist voters rather than the right. Those who will be hurt by his return to the field will be the parties of Gantz and Lapid, from whom he draws seats respectively, and very few votes from the right, despite his identity with the camp.
Yossi Cohen, on the other hand, is expected to draw his political power from the Likud and even from Ben-Gvir. In the coalition, a senior member of Netanyahu's partner parties admitted yesterday that they have no interest in the elections now due to the gloomy outlook for seats, which leads directly to alignment between Netanyahu and his partners regarding the approval of the coalition funds within the war budget (a tiny sum, it must be said, compared to 30 billion immediate war needs).
Although the government is expected to conclude only its first year in office, the political discourse has become a characteristic of the past year: that is, one characterized by explosive election slogans that can bring the elections themselves closer quickly. The round of fighting that began on Sunday is expected to be of high intensity for at least the next month, and therefore the political establishment believes that the possibility of elections will only be staged at the summer conference. The Likud is already groping after the next day, and it's not just them.
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