"Our partners understand that what is decided in Ukraine is bigger than the future of Ukraine alone, so I do not expect a slowdown in aid or a decrease in its scope," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said this week during a visit to the Netherlands. But data published by a German think tank reveals that Kolbe's statement expressed more expectation than facts on the ground.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister: We Don't Expect Western Aid to Decline | Reuters
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the volume of new financial commitments to Ukraine in August-October fell by almost 90% compared to the same period last year.
The drastic decline in commitments to new aid packages, photo: Kiel Institute for the World Economy
According to the institute, which has been tracking aid to Ukraine since the start of the war, its allies pledged 2.11 billion euros in August-October this year, the lowest amount since January 2022, that is, a month before the invasion. Kyiv is now increasingly dependent on a core of major donors such as the United States, Germany and northern and eastern European countries, which still pledge both financial and military aid.
"Our numbers reinforce the impression that the allies have become more hesitant," said Christoph Trebash, director of the institute's Ukraine aid monitoring project. "Large aid packages are currently being discussed in both the EU and the US, but in both cases the process is stalled because of political differences."
Just last night (Israel time), Senate Republicans blocked the $111 billion aid package, of which $60 billion was earmarked for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. 51 senators voted in favor of the package, but 60 were needed to advance the legislation. Senate Republicans have insisted on combining aid with changes to immigration policy.
Yermak (left) with Democratic Senator Durbin, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Markarova, Senator Tester and Speaker of Parliament in Kyiv Stefanchuk, photo: AP
Before the vote, Ukraine sent a high-level delegation to Washington to clarify the need for aid. "Without a new aid package approved by the end of the year, Ukraine could lose the war," Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, warned.
At the same time, EU leaders have pledged a €50 billion aid package over four years and the issue is expected to come up at the EU summit in about a week, but in the meantime Orban's government in Hungary has expressed opposition.
A Ukrainian soldier trains to operate a drone in the Donetsk region last month, Photo: AFP
Fortunately for Kyiv, it can still count on bilateral aid from European countries and NATO members such as Britain and Canada, as well as long-term commitments that its allies have previously approved and allocated budgets to. For example, in the past three months, Denmark, Germany and Norway have delivered military aid packages to which they had previously committed: 1.2 billion euros, 600 billion euros, and <> million euros, respectively.
In any case, the data on the significant decline in the volume of commitments add to the tense atmosphere in Kiev. Following the failure of the counteroffensive in the summer, which failed to liberate Russian-occupied territories in the south of the country, disagreements between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the head of the armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, became public. While Zelensky wishes to convey optimism about the possibility of fighting for the liberation of all Ukrainian territories within the 1991 borders (i.e., the liberation of Crimea and the Donbass), Zaluzhny argued that the war has in fact reached a point where there is no possibility of a breakthrough. According to him, the possibility of a war of attrition without maneuvers could benefit Russia.
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