"We are determined to help Israel ensure that October 7 does not happen again," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday.
Arab networks
This was not the first time he had made a commitment. He made similar statements in the four (!) visits he has made to Israel since the massacre. However, at the same time as his declaration, under American pressure, Israel's security cabinet was forced to increase the amount of fuel entering Gaza and provide oxygen to Hamas terrorists fighting our soldiers from the terror tunnels.
Close to the same statement, the State Department spokesman also announced that "the United States will oppose the creation of a buffer zone in the Gaza Strip," thus placing another weight on Israel's feet on future possibilities for shaping the defense of the communities in the envelope.
These statements follow statements that "the duration of the war is not unlimited" and the pressure exerted on Israel even before the renewal of the fire in the Gaza Strip, aimed at reducing the intensity of the fighting and increasing humanitarian aid.
Gives back, but sets conditions. Blinken with Netanyahu, Photo: Amos Ben Gershom/GPO
The sincerity of the statements of President Biden and his people should not be questioned. The administration's support for Israel is undeniable and deserves praise. The United States recognizes Israel's right to destroy Hamas' military and governmental capabilities and provides it with substantial and vital assistance. At the same time, however, it places limitations that make it impossible for Israel to achieve these goals without paying for it with the lives of many soldiers.
Moreover, the limitations imposed by the United States inevitably lead to an extension of the duration of the fighting – completely contrary to the interests of the Americans themselves. The practical way to enable rapid and effective fighting, with minimal risk to the non-involved population, is to allow this population to be removed, even temporarily, from the combat zones. However, objections were also raised to this.
Gazans moving from north to south of the Gaza Strip, Photo: AP.
The increased pressure on Israel may be related to President Biden's internal political situation ahead of the 2024 elections. It may stem from discrepancies between Washington's view of Gaza and the familiar picture of reality in Israel.
Either way, Israel cannot compromise on achieving its goals with the least possible erosion of its fighters. Whatever the length of time it takes. This is the message that US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will have to take with him at the end of his visit to Israel.
The Day After Dilemma
Anyone who insists on hearing from the Israeli government where it is headed in Gaza the day after the war is probably doing so in order to argue with it over what it knows well: there are no good options in Gaza. Had there been, it is likely that they would have already been implemented, on one of the many occasions throughout the years of conflict.
There is no obligation to conduct the choice between the bad alternatives in a public debate, now in the midst of the war. It is right to pay full attention to winning the war, to maintain internal cohesion and to reduce to the minimum necessary dealing with issues that may arouse controversy, at home or with our friends overseas.
The new refugee camp in southern Gaza, photo: Reuters
From Israel's perspective, the "day after" question in Gaza is secondary to the more important goal of the war: rebuilding Israeli deterrence that crashed on 7 October. The final picture of the war must first be formulated according to this criterion.
The collapse of the de-facto Hamas administration, the dismantling of its military frameworks, the destruction of its production infrastructure and military capabilities, the killing or neutralization of most of its commanders and its military order of battle are all pieces of the puzzle of Israel's desired final picture.
In no way should we let go of the issue of abductees, let alone think of it in terms of "the day after." The moral obligation of the State of Israel towards the abductees and their families requires leaving an open channel for negotiations (preferably Egypt over Egypt) and quickly placing the sword around the necks of Hamas leaders, until they understand that the abductees are a burden on them and act to free them.
Still do not bring the workers back from Judea and Samaria
In parallel with the fighting efforts in Gaza, the determined activity of the IDF and the Shin Bet against terrorist elements in the West Bank continues. The political echelon will be required to decide on the question of the return to work in Israel of Palestinian workers from Judea and Samaria, whose entry has been prevented since 7 October (beyond the relatively small number of officials defined as essential at this time as well).
Weapons seized in Jenin, photo: IDF Spokesperson
The main consideration in favor of returning them to Israel is the fear that economic hardship, frustration and idleness will push them to take action against Israel. Another consideration is the effect of the closure on the Israeli economy, first and foremost on the construction industry. On the other side of these considerations is the fear of terrorist attacks that God forbid will be carried out in Israel, by workers or those who will come under their auspices. The fighting in Gaza provides not only inspiration but also an impulse to take revenge, especially in light of the images and messages that are constantly broadcast on Al-Jazeera.
But not only the scenes from Gaza, but also the successful counterterrorism operations carried out in Judea and Samaria, which left behind a significant number of dead and wounded, add motives of revenge. The defense establishment is preoccupied with the fighting in Gaza and counterterrorism in the West Bank, and its ability to track down terrorist elements and thwart them in advance is not guaranteed, as we recently saw in the attacks at the Gush Etzion junction and in Jerusalem.
The scene of the attack in the Jordan Valley. Two reservists sustained minor injuries, the terrorist was neutralized, photo: Speaking Media Group photo
Today, the Israeli public is alert and vigilant regarding every Palestinian from the "territories" who is in Israel. This contributes to the detection and preventive efforts. This will not be the case if tens of thousands of Palestinians are found in Israel. Another consideration that should not guide policymaking, but should also be taken into account, is price consciousness. Hamas in the Gaza Strip wins credit among some of the public in the West Bank for the release of security prisoners and for its steadfastness. These points are offset, at least for part of the population, by the damage caused to their livelihood by Hamas.
In all the considerations, it seems that at this stage the balance is tilted in favor of leaving the situation as it is and not returning the workers to Israel. It is right to avoid taking immediate security risks, even at the cost of the longer-term security implications.
The writer serves as head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy
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