The more one follows the signs from America, the more backing for the just war in Gaza is running out at worst, and at worst, leading to stipulations and changes that limit Israel's ability to defeat and subdue Hamas. One way or another, this hourglass created overseas by the upcoming presidential election campaign and criticism from the Democratic Party on the left is also dragging Israel directly into the Blue and White election campaign. This condition was set by the chairman of the state camp, Benny Gantz, when he entered the government – at the end of the campaign he will resign from it, and those around him say that this moment is approaching.
Already preparing the ballot boxes?, Photo: Coco
The political-political assessment shared by several ministers in the war cabinet relates to the current phase of the maneuver in Gaza, which is expected to culminate and perhaps even end given the pressure from the United States in January. Gantz's resignation at the time will not lead directly to elections, since Netanyahu has 64 seats (slightly loose) and four more for a safety net from Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope members who do not see the end of the campaign in the near and foreseeable future. But the coalition believes that the keys to an upcoming election campaign are in the hands of two people: Gantz will start, Netanyahu will decide the time and place.
Labor Party Chairman Merav Michaeli, who announced her retirement and primaries, preceded the putsch planned for her by her friends, which was delayed only because of the war. It is also the first swallow, a harbinger of elections. The scenarios in the corridors of the Knesset predict two significant events that could lead to elections: Gantz's resignation in January and elections in April-May, or alternatively, the vote on the 2024 budget in March and elections in the summer. These two mines lie before Netanyahu, who is currently trying to maintain a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox, Smotrich, who will have trouble passing the electoral threshold, and Ben-Gvir, who may be the last government to serve.
Gantz and Saar. The End?, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Meirav Michaeli. The First Swallow, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Elections also in the United States
This situation could change rapidly and lead Netanyahu on one of the dates to bring forward his party's primaries and hold general elections. This will also prevent former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen from getting into the game when the time comes. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is also waiting for the signal to be given, poses no threat to Netanyahu, as his mandates are now parked with Gantz and Lapid.
Those who concentrate most of the seats of the centrist camp may also want elections to maximize momentum, with the starting point being that small parties that will be established will be required, as is happening on the left, for lateral unification moves. In the past week, signs of a voluntary divorce by partners Gantz and Saar have also increased. The latter is taking steps back to the right-wing camp, including signaling that he will not be ready to quit the government anytime soon, while the chairman of the state camp will have to reorganize the right wing of his party in order to signal that seats are migrating from the Likud, and he will open the door to new-old figures in the political system.
Former Prime Minister Bennett. Waiting for the signal, photo: Alex Kolomoisky
Netanyahu, Galant and Gantz. Will they announce the dissolution of the government soon?, Photo: Yossi Zalgar
Netanyahu's terrifying scenario is to go to elections in the atmosphere of hundreds of thousands of reservists who return home and demand that he retire if the goals of the war are not achieved in the way the people expect them: victory and victory for Hamas in the south alongside the removal of the threat from the north. He will try to preempt such a scenario and call elections in a more favorable atmosphere against the background of (if possible) the achievement of the war objectives. In January, the president of the United States will enter an election campaign not wanting to see the smoke of bombs from Israel in the background, and in the spring Netanyahu will enter elections with the people demanding victory. The don't of which of them will decide at the polling station in Nahariya as in Michigan.
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