Israel believes that the intense fighting in Gaza will continue until the end of January, before the IDF redeploys and continues operations in a different format.
That timetable, however, may have to be shortened if the U.S. insists that the current phase of the fighting be completed by the end of this month. In closed discussions, Israel treats the war in Gaza as a four-stage campaign. The first phase, which had already been completed, was the fire campaign – mainly aerial – which began on October 7 and continued until the ground operation began.
The second phase, which Israel is currently underway, includes a multi-divisional operation that began in the northern Gaza Strip and is now taking place simultaneously in Khan Yunis. It will take the IDF a few more weeks to complete the operation in the northern Gaza Strip, and a few more weeks to defeat Khan Yunis as well. At this stage, no activity is planned in Rafah, nor in the refugee camps in the central Gaza Strip, some of which (al-Bureij, Deir al-Balah) have significant Hamas forces.
"One terrorist was killed in the alley": Documentation of the encounter between Nahal Patrol fighters and terrorists in Jabaliya // Photo: IDF Spokesperson
In the third stage, the IDF is supposed to leave Gaza and stabilize a new line of defense west of the border, a kind of security perimeter in Palestinian territory, which will enable better protection of the communities in the envelope and also a convenient springboard for continued activity inside Gaza. At this stage – also referred to in internal talks as "the corridor" – the IDF is supposed to carry out raids of various scopes deep into the area, in order to harm the remaining Hamas forces and to ensure that the organization does not regain its takeover.
The third phase is supposed to take an unknown period of time – many months and perhaps even longer. There are still quite a few question marks surrounding it, such as who will control the Gaza Strip during this period, whether and when the population evacuated in the northern Gaza Strip will be allowed to return home, how much humanitarian aid Israel will allow and from where it will enter, and how aggressive Israel will act in it.
It can be assumed that Israel will seek to thwart threats from the air in order to minimize friction on the ground, although past experience shows that without frequent ground raids, it will be difficult to keep terrorism low. The understanding in Israel is that without the elimination of Hamas' entire political-military leadership, it will not be possible to complete the campaign, and therefore targeted killings will be a central pillar of the campaign.
Widespread destruction in the Gaza Strip, photo: AFP
The goal Israel has defined at this stage is that an armored brigade force will be able to move freely at any point in Gaza. It is likely to be possible in the north, but will encounter greater difficulties in other parts where ground operations will not be completed. Conversations held in recent weeks have examined whether the Americans will oppose the continuation of activity in this format, provided that it is accompanied by humanitarian measures.
In the fourth stage, which is not currently in sight, a new regime is supposed to be established in Gaza. The identity of this regime is unclear, and Israel refrains from dealing with it, partly out of concern for the integrity of the coalition. This is a major point of contention with the administration in Washington, which believes that in order to ensure stability in Gaza in the future, it is necessary to act to shape it now. The defense establishment is also pressuring to discuss the issue, but it has not yet been able to present its position.
Senior sources said Sunday evening that the IDF had been instructed to prepare for the completion of the second phase of the operation by the end of January, before the third phase begins. However, Washington reported over the weekend that the United States is demanding that Israel complete the second phase by the end of December. It appears that this issue will be at the core of talks between Israel and the United States in the coming weeks, as Israel tries to gain more days of fighting by increasing humanitarian aid and other actions that will make things easier for the population. It may eventually be decided to end the current phase earlier than planned, in the second week of January, when the Western world returns from the Christmas and New Year holidays.
The targeted killings will be a central pillar. Yahya Sinwar (archive), photo: AFP.
The completion of the second phase is expected to present the government with a challenge in the internal arena, because the withdrawal will take place before Hamas is decided and all the abductees are returned – the two main objectives of the operation. On the other hand, extending the operation without agreements with Washington would mean a serious crisis in relations with the Biden administration, which until now has given Israel complete political-security-economic backing. Such a move could also have far-reaching implications vis-à-vis European countries and moderate Sunni states in the region, and could reach the point of attempts to impose sanctions on Israel in the international arenas.
Excluding Hezbollah
Another possible bone of contention with the Americans would be with Hezbollah. It is clear to Israel that it will not be able to return to normal life in the north – and return the residents to their homes – until Hezbollah is removed from the fence. The preferred way to do this is through an agreement, but the chances of this happening are very low despite efforts led by American envoy Amos Hochstein. Israel is cooperating with this effort, in part to gain international legitimacy that will enable it to act by force if required, but Jerusalem also remembers Biden's explicit warning, summarized in one word – don't – that called on both sides to avoid war.
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