Last updated: 12.12.2023, 05:25 a.m.
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For many, a white Christmas is an ideal. © Sebastian Willnow/dpa
This is how many people imagine an ideal Christmas: the tree glows inside, the snow piles up outside. Are the chances of this dwindling with climate change? According to experts, it looks like it. A fact check.
Berlin - It is not yet possible to predict whether there will be an advance of cold air with snowfall just in time for the festival this year. For many, a white Christmas is an ideal image. The snow cover radiates calm, nature seems to be in hibernation - a scenario that fits well with Christmas, where it is supposed to be contemplative. However, white Christmases were an exception in Germany even before climate change due to a certain weather phenomenon.
Assertion: There will never be a white Christmas in this country again.
Assessment: Unlikely – but the odds are actually dropping.
Facts: Older people in particular often glorify the past. It is often claimed that there used to be snow at Christmas. Is that really true?
There is no official definition of a "white Christmas", but the German Weather Service (DWD) speaks of it when at least one centimetre of snow is measured at a weather station in the morning on 24, 25 or 26 December.
What are the ingredients for a white Christmas?
According to the DWD, a white Christmas is rather a rarity in large parts of Germany, at least if you don't live in the higher low mountain ranges or on the edge of the Alps. "A lot has to come together," says DWD climate expert Karsten Friedrich about the snow cover over the holidays. There must be enough cold and humidity.
The problem is that cold air coming from the north or northeast is usually dry and brings no precipitation. Milder air from the west often brings moisture, but rarely snow. So the mix in the weather kitchen has to be right. This was the case at the beginning of December.
What about regional differences?
Whether there is a higher probability of snow at Christmas also depends on the residential location in Germany. In general, the higher up you live, the higher the probability that there will be snow on the doorstep at Christmas. However, in some years, such as most recently in 2022, there was not even enough for a white Christmas in the Alpine region, Friedrich recalls.
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If you never want to see snow at Christmas, you should go to the sea, advises the weather expert. Because the North Sea and Baltic Sea still store heat from the summer in December, it is usually milder on the coast.
Is Grandpa right - was Christmas more often white in the past?
The probability of a white Christmas in Germany's lowlands has never been particularly high, but it was certainly higher in grandpa's youth than it is now. This is the result of an evaluation by the climate archive of the National Weather Service: A comparison of the reference periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 shows that the chance of snow cover on all three Christmas days has decreased by more than 50 percent overall.
An example from the once snow-spoiled south of Germany makes this clear: In the Bavarian capital Munich, there was still a white Christmas about every three years from 1961 to 1990, but from 1991 to 2020 it only occurred about every seven years.
When was the last time Germany experienced a white Christmas?
The last time there was a widespread white Christmas in this country was in 2010. 13 years ago, according to the DWD, the snowpack was still patchy on the morning of December 24, but "by Christmas Eve, fresh snow provided a snow cover throughout Germany." Such more or less comprehensive white Christmases are rare.
In total, this has only happened four times since the 1960s - before 2010 in 1962, 1969 and 1981. Whether this year's festival will be white can only be predicted reasonably reliably "a maximum of one week before Christmas", explains DWD expert Friedrich.
Is Christmas just at the wrong time?
It's almost the same every year: Shortly before Christmas, the so-called Christmas thaw sets in, which the DWD describes in detail in its lexicon. Mild Atlantic air flows in from the west and sometimes brings rain with it. Previously fallen snow disappears. According to DWD, the "notorious Christmas thaw" is one of the so-called singularities - also known as weather rule cases - and occurs with a probability of up to 70 percent, depending on the region.
In other words, Christmas is at the wrong time. "The probability of snow is greatest in midwinter," says Friedrich, referring to the month of January.
What happens next in times of climate change?
Climate researcher Valeri Goldberg from the Technical University of Dresden calls the period since 2010 the "longest continuous period of years with green Christmas holidays since weather records began". This refers to the Saxon state capital in the years 1884 to 2021.
This "suggests the influence of global warming". There is a correlation between warming of the atmosphere and oceans and the decreasing frequency of white Christmases in Central Europe, Goldberg writes. The probability of snowy weather conditions in winter is decreasing - especially in the lowlands. For this to happen, frosty and humid air masses from the polar region would first have to reach Central Europe.
Climate projections show a warming of winters in Central Europe by the end of the 21st century, mostly by three to four degrees on average and up to 5.5 degrees at the peak. It can be assumed that a white Christmas will then "become a very rare event," predicts climate researcher Goldberg. Dpa