It is logical that, just a week after the new government took office, no one wants to set dates on when the economic legacy left by Kirchnerism, especially inflation, will begin to be reversed. But it is also true that a large part of society, which has been hit by the constant loss of its purchasing power and which has decided to support Javier Milei's adjustment, requires a horizon to project how long it should endure.
The experience usually gives some lessons in terms of not recreating false expectations that then activate like a boomerang. "Inflation is going to fall drastically in the second half of the year" was the catchphrase that Mauricio Macri used on five occasions during the months after his inauguration in December 2015, as Cristina Kirchner's successor, to generate expectations. But that never happened, and the government had to pay a high political cost.
As Ignacio Ortelli wrote in Clarín, Milei has said that "only in March will concrete results begin to be seen." Of course, that would happen after an inflation forecast by private consultants, for the first three months of the year, in the order of 90 and 100%. From there, the government presumes, it would begin to fall.
For the time being, Milei's voters, from different social backgrounds, assume that the adjustment "was the only thing that could be done," and point to the need to accompany the administration. Perhaps they still fantasize about dollarization and that by the end of 2024 Argentina will be another country. Sounds ambitious.
A recent parameter was the Cambiemos government. Macrismo's honeymoon lasted almost two years, despite winning the 2017 legislative elections. In the usual ringing of the bells at the beginning of 2018, the discontent of their voters had begun to be palpable. Of course, the context was different: Kirchnerist inflation ended up at 30% per year, as did poverty. On the other hand, the Alberto Fernández-Cristina Kirchner duo leaves an inflation of 140% and poverty of 45%.
Mauricio Macri. When he attended the Legislative Assembly where Milei took office. Photo: Federico López Claro
In his first seven days, Milei has shown striking pragmatism. The list of second-line civil servants who served in the Kirchner administration or in the economic management of Sergio Massa is very long; official media coverage was suspended for one year; there was no cut in the salaries of national officials, legislators or members of the judiciary; the President always rejected the income tax and went so far as to describe it as "filthy", but he promised to reinstate it as compensation to the governors, whose support and the vote of their deputies and senators in Congress for the approval of different bills.
In this context, the direction taken by the former leadership of Together for Change contributes to its disappearance. Macri bets everything on the government; Patricia Bullrich is a minister in that government; Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is a silent opponent; and Martín Lousteau has just taken over the leadership of the national UCR, which consolidates the party as a moderate opposition. Clearly JxC was split in two and can hardly survive.
The real rupture seems to originate in the PRO. Last week, Macri convened a party meeting to decide the direction of the yellow space and ensure support for the government's measures. But neither Bullrich nor Larreta, two of his main references, attended.
Just as in his early years Néstor Kirchner interpreted that his administration was going to be settled in the streets, and it was necessary to take control of them, a task that he entrusted to Luis D'Elia, giving birth to social organizations, today Milei is once again fightingfor control of the streets through Patricia Bullrich, who did not do too well in 2015 when she tried but failed to put out the pickets. It is not a march that is at stake, but who occupies the center of the stage in the social conflict that will grow.
Picketers. Eduardo Belliboni of the Polo Obrero. Photo: Martin Quintana
It is hard to understand why the new administration, instead of organizing how to prevent a picket march from being massive, does not dare to take away the management of the plans from the social leaders. Emilio Persico, Eduardo Belliboni, Juan Grabois, Daniel Menéndez are some of those who retain that power.
Both social organizations and some more militant unions threaten to take to the streets as the scene of confrontation against the Milei government. Perhaps Kirchnerism does not register that there is a pendulum epochal change, in which a good part of society not only enables a fiscal adjustment but also puts an end to protests and pickets at all costs. It is no coincidence that various polls prior to the election have shown that the majority of those consulted were even willing to tolerate a government being less democratic, as long as it solves its problems.
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Milei's adjustment and containment; A deaf debate shakes Macrism
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