Towards the end of the 11th week of the war in the Gaza Strip, the IDF has recently expanded its operations to new areas throughout the Gaza Strip, north and south. Senior defense officials estimate that it will take at least a few more weeks to complete the current phase of the intense fighting.
IDF Spokesperson
However, no one promises that at the end of the current stage, the two goals defined by the political echelon will be achieved: toppling the Hamas regime and releasing the hostages. In light of this, as part of coordinating expectations with the public, we have already said that the army emphasizes that no one will declare the end of the war anytime soon, but on the contrary: the IDF is preparing for the third phase of the fighting to continue throughout 2024 – at a lower intensity.
IDF forces in Gaza, photo: IDF Spokesperson
The truth must be told. This talk undermines efforts to free hostages. It is no wonder that Hamas leaders, led by Yahya Sinwar, are entrenched in their positions and toughen their demands regarding the release of Israeli hostages. No one should be surprised that Hamas issued an official statement yesterday saying it would not agree to a hostage deal if Israel did not announce the end of the war. This may be only a starting point for negotiations, but the assessment in Israel is that a deal for the release of abductees is still a long way off, and even very far away.
The prevailing opinion in Israel is that the main lever of pressure on Hamas is the ground maneuver, Photo: IDF Spokesperson
The prevailing opinion in Israel is that the main, if not the only, lever of pressure on Hamas is ground maneuvers, and it is not at all certain that the suffering of the civilian population, or the elimination and arrest of Hamas operatives, will cause Sinwar to feel that the sword is around his neck in such a way as to make him agree to release hostages in exchange for a time-limited ceasefire.
To distance Hezbollah in a military move?
Israel claims that the achievements are cumulative and will accumulate over time, but the fact that it has not yet succeeded in defeating Hamas after two and a half months of persistent war radiates to the entire region, and the entire Middle East is waiting in anticipation for the outcome of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. As is well known, any Israeli operation in Gaza, and any result achieved, will also have a very broad impact on what happens on the Lebanese border, and of course also on what is happening in Judea and Samaria, Iran, Yemen and more.
Israeli Air Force bombings in Lebanon after Hezbollah fire (archive), photo: AFP
The most troubling border in the immediate term, of course, is Lebanon, where – at this time – Israel and Hezbollah are maintaining war within the borders of the sector dictated by Hezbollah: a skirmish a few kilometers from the border – with a slight escalation in the actions of both sides. It seems that Hezbollah is not too impressed by the damage to its assets and people, and those who pay the price are the residents of the conflict line, who are evacuated from their homes.
Israel is trying to initiate a political process that will keep Hezbollah terrorists away from the border. Israel hopes that the United States will succeed in exerting its influence, but at this time, even at this time, there is not even talk of moving them beyond the Litani in accordance with Resolution 1701, but only a few kilometers from the border. Even Washington's strong desire not to start a war in the northern arena has not yet led to a solution to the problem.
The IDF is seriously preparing for the possibility that there will be no choice but to remove Hezbollah terrorists from the border in a military move, but it can be assumed that the preference is to wait as long as the fighting in Gaza in its current form continues. This Israeli decision is understandable, and perhaps also logical in light of the many challenges in the Gaza Strip. But it is not at all certain that this decision sends the desired deterrent message to Nasrallah and his patrons in Iran. Unfortunately, we have already witnessed what happens when Israel hesitates to take the initiative and act against significant threats.
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