Javier Milei's arrival to the presidency has so many particularities that it is difficult to compare his start with that of other presidents. Beyond the debate about whether he really took office in the face of the worst economic and social legacy since the return of democracy (or not so much), the very figure of the president, his journey and political arming put Argentine society before an unprecedented scenario.
He is the first economist president, he achieved his greatest achievement with barely two years of real political experience, he does not have a solid party behind him and his weakness in Congress is impressive.
The combination of these strange factors would also explain the beginning of the administration, with a Cabinet still in formation, with the president failing to fulfill part of his campaign promises and with a mega DNU that must pass the filter of Congress.
And to all this, how do these first steps fall into public opinion?On Sunday, Clarín analyzed seven polls published since Milei took office. They are from the consulting firms CB, Fixer and Marketing & Estadística (they worked together), Zuban Córdoba, Circuitos, DC and the UBA.
They evaluated, among other things, the image of the President (and his Cabinet), the economic expectations, the view on the first measures and (very interestingly) the time of tolerance of the people for the improvements to appear.
Image of Milei and the Cabinet
Four polls evaluated Milei's image. And their numbers are in tune with the times. Despite the fact that he has just taken office, he is partly affected by what all politicians, who reap more rejections than support.
Two of the polls that measured it at the national level (Circuits and Fixer/M&E) give it a balance in favor: 42.9% positive and 39.1% negative the former; + 49% and - 40% the second. For Zuban Córdoba, on the other hand, the balance is against: + 48.3% and - 50.1%.
The evolution of Javier Milei's image, according to the consultancies Fixer and Marketing & Estadística.
Another consulting firm, CB, evaluated it province by province, in a comparison with Axel Kicillof that seems to anticipate the rift to come. And there the President clearly fared better than the governor.
Fixer/M&E and Zuban Córdoba also measured different Cabinet officials. And there were two who performed well, even surpassing the president in positive image: Vice President Victoria Villarruel and Security Minister Patricia Bullrich.
The image of Javier Milei and two of his officials with the best numbers: Vice President Villarruel and Minister Bullrich. Facts about Zuban Cordoba.
The rest is mixed between a still high level of ignorance (such as the Chief of Staff Nicolás Posse or the Minister Guillermo Francos) and others who, perhaps because of their role, are beginning to have a high rejection (such as the person in charge of the Economy, Nicolás Caputo).
Current situation and economic expectations
As for the inheritance received, the starting point of the new management, it is clear that it is bad/bad. Circuits asked people to compare their present with the recent past and 66.4% said they are "worse" today.
Regarding the expectations for a year or two from now, there is a particularity. It was a parameter in which the Fernandez made water, but that had rebounded somewhat in the campaign with the possibility of a victory for Milei. People who believed that if the libertarian won, he would be better off.
Expectations with the economy, according to data from Circuitos. Pessimists prevail.
But since the speech in Congress, plus the first measures and high price increases, public opinion has recalculated and most say that, at least in the short term, things will continue to be just as bad or worse.
In the three surveys that weighed this point (Circuits, Fixer/M&E and UBA) there are more pessimists than optimists.
Reaction to First Measurements/Tolerance Time
The impact of the new measures was also assessed by three reports: Circuits, Tachyon and DC. The first two, with an adverse balance for Milei. The third, with a strikingly high balance.
Circuits asked who benefits and affects the President with this start: in the first case, "the businessmen" stand out; in the second, "the workers."
But even more interesting is when the consultants come out to ask about the time of tolerance, in the face of a government that arrived with more than 55% of the votes in the second round. And there the conclusion is that Milei has time, but not much.
How much tolerance do Argentines have for Milei's adjustment, according to data from Taquion.
Tachyon is one of those that investigates the time tolerance to adjustment. With these results:
Gives 1 to 2 months: 25.4%.
From 2 to 6 months: 29.6%.
From 6 months to 1 year: 28%.
From 1 to 2 years: 10.2%.
More than 2 years: 6.8%.
How much tolerance Argentines have to see improvements, according to data from the UBA.
The UBA and Zuban Córdoba also investigated this issue and the results were somewhat more relaxed for the President. In the first case, 49% give Milei "more than a year" to improve the economy. In the second, 32.6% are willing to wait for him "for the entire term".
Fixer and Markenting & Statistics, finally, asked respondents directly how long they think it will take to bring inflation down: 37% believe it "won't make it."