Status: 24.12.2023, 17:49 PM
By: Florian Naumann
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Does Putin really want a ceasefire with Ukraine? Western experts have their doubts – and a Russian opposition activist is outraged.
Moscow/New York – At first, it sounds like a possible turning point in the Ukraine war. The renowned New York Times claims to have learned from diplomatic circles: Vladimir Putin is said to have offered a ceasefire via intermediaries. "He is really ready to stop at the current positions," said a Russian diplomat, referring to Putin and the course of the front in Ukraine. The not insignificant postscript: "He is not prepared to step back even a meter."
Publicly, the Kremlin chief had recently emphasized that Russia is sticking to its war aims. Officially, this includes, among other things, the demilitarization of Ukraine. This is not the only reason why a ceasefire initiative would be a surprise – according to experts, Russia's position in the war of aggression had recently improved. But it may be more of a tactical manoeuvre than an interest in ending the bloodshed anyway.
Putin's ceasefire offer: ISW sees tactics against Western aid in Ukraine war
This was the conclusion reached by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a recent assessment. "The timing of Putin's rumored interest in a ceasefire is more in line with Russia's efforts to delay and undermine Western military aid to Ukraine than with a serious interest in ending the war with anything other than a complete Russian victory," it said.
Vladimir Putin on the phone shortly before Christmas – according to the Kremlin, not in conversation with the United States, but with a 13-year-old schoolgirl. © IMAGO/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin Pool
Similar efforts had already been identified in the winter of 2022/23, the ISW wrote in its daily situation report on Saturday (23 December) on the Ukraine war. Even then, the aim was to direct the West's focus to "hypothetical negotiations" instead of ensuring the supply of materials to Ukraine for its summer offensive. In fact, the latter did not produce the hoped-for successes.
Does Putin want a ceasefire with Ukraine? Masala expresses restraint
German military expert Carlo Masala initially expressed restraint on Saturday (23 December). There are "many indications that this is not meant so seriously," he wrote in the short message service X (formerly Twitter). It is worth considering the memory of previous ceasefire offers at times that were militarily problematic for Russia – and the fact that Putin is apparently addressing the United States. "The post explicitly points out that no one knows how Ukraine will react to this proposal," Masala wrote, referring to the New York Times report.
The paper pointed to several imponderables and question marks in connection with the Russian backroom initiative. A Russian source also said that Putin could change his mind at any time if Russia's occupying forces "gain momentum." At the moment, there seems to be essentially a stalemate – this was also recently admitted by the Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. U.S. sources warned that it could be a long-standing attempt by the Kremlin to sow confusion.
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"For Putin, it's Russia against the U.S. and the West," the Times quoted a Russian official as saying: "Putin can't afford to give in," he said some time ago after a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Putin critic Kasparov outraged: "Can have a ceasefire in ten minutes"
The Russian opposition activist Garry Kasparov, however, frostily assessed the reports of a negotiation offer as "BS", i.e. "bullshit", which only gives Vladimir Putin's supporters in the West arguments and, if necessary, Russia time to retrofit military material. "Putin can have a ceasefire in ten minutes, whenever he wants," Kasparov wrote on X. "All he has to do is get out of Ukraine again to hell." As expected, there were also enormous doubts from Ukraine about Vladimir Putin's alleged offer.
Thus, the well-known Ukrainian war reporter Ilya Ponomarenko warned on X against a "deal with the devil". "Based on the fact that Putin continues to signal that he is 'open to a ceasefire', the conclusion is that things are nowhere near as great as the Kremlin would have us believe," he said, presumably also referring to the country's losses. Russia needs a pause in hostilities with Ukraine. This means: "We are all on the right track and must step up our efforts in all areas." (fn
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